Uncertainty analysis of predicted disturbance from off-road vehicular traffic in complex landscapes at fort hood

The US Army Engineering Research Development Center (ERDC) uses a modified form of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to estimate spatially explicit rates of soil erosion by water across military training facilities. One modification involves the RUSLE support practice factor (P factor), which is used to account for the effect of disturbance by human activities on erosion rates. Since disturbance from off-road military vehicular traffic moving through complex landscapes varies spatially, a spatially explicit nonlinear regression model (disturbance model) is used to predict the distribution of P factor values across a training facility. This research analyzes the uncertainty in this model's disturbance predictions for the Fort Hood training facility in order to determine both the spatial distribution of prediction uncertainty and the contribution of different error sources to that uncertainty. This analysis shows that a three-category vegetation map used by the disturbance model was the greatest source of prediction uncertainty, especially for the map categories shrub and tree. In areas mapped as grass, modeling error (uncertainty associated with the model parameter estimates) was the largest uncertainty source. These results indicate that the use of a high-quality vegetation map that is periodically updated to reflect current vegetation distributions, would produce the greatest reductions in disturbance prediction uncertainty.     

Book reviews

Our Stolen Future. How man-made chemicals are threatening our fertility, intelligence and survival. T. Colborn, J. P. Myers & D. Dumanoski, 1996, Boston, Little, Brown, 306 pp. ISBN 0 316 87546, £18.99

Environmental Sociology: a social constructionist perspective. John Hannigan, 1995, London, Routledge, ISBN 0 415 112 559, £12.99

Citizen Science: a study of people, expertise and sustainable development. Alan Irwin, 1995, London, Routledge, ISBN 0 415 130 107, £13.99

The True Costs of Road Transport. David Maddison, David Pearce, Olof Johansson, Edward Calthrop, Todd Litman & Eric Verhoef, 1996, London, Earthscan, 242 pp. ISBN 185 383 2685, £10.95

Car Dependence: a report for the RAC Foundation for Motoring and the Environment. RAC Foundation for Motoring and the Environment, 1995, London, 154 pp. ISBN 086211355 5

Local Sustainability: turning sustainable development into practical action in our communities. Roger Few (Ed.), Leicester Environment City Trust, 1996, Leicester, Environ Trust, 100 pp., £28.00, [Available from: Environ Parkfield, Western Park, Leicester, LE3 6HX, UK]

Successful Environment Management in a Week. Mark Yoxon, 1996, London, Hodder & Stoughton, 96 pp. ISBN 0 340 66374 X, £6.99

Principles of Environmental and Resource Economics. H. Folmer, H. Landis Gabel & H. Opschoor (Eds), 1995, Aldershot, Edward Elgar, 512 pp. ISBN 1 85898 224 3, £85.00

The Contingent Valuation of Environmental Resources: methodological issues and research needs. David Bjornstad & James R. Khan (Eds), 1996, Cheltenham, UK and Brookfield USA, Edward Elgar, ISBN 1 858983215

Towards Sustainability. Peter Martin & Colin Hutchinson, 1996, London, Office for Public Management, £5.45

Conservation and the Consumer: understanding environmental concern. Paul Hackett, 1995, London, Routledge, 229 pp. ISBN 0 415 08096 7, £45.00     

WATER CHEMISTRY OF NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS STRIP MINE AND LIVESTOCK WATER IMPOUNDMENTS1

The water from 34 strip mine and 9 livestock water impoundments on the Northern Great Plains was analyzed. In all areas the water was classified as slightly brackish or saline. The dominant ion sequence for the study ponds was Na>Ca>Mg>K and SO₄HCO₃CO₃Cl, which differs from most freshwater by the transposition of Na and SO₄. Even though mean concentrations of total filterable residue were consistently greater in strip mine ponds, statistically significant differences were not found at the p ≤ 0.05 level between strip ponds and livestock ponds. The macronutrients of nitrogen and phosphorus found in the ponds were neither limiting to primary productivity nor excessive for fresh water. Many ponds contain turbid water. Turbidity restricts light penetration and limits photosynthesis besides making the ponds visually unattractive. The source of water for the pond, whether surface runoff or groundwater, seems to have important bearing on turbidity. The most appropriate use of these strip mine ponds is for waterfowl, warm-water fisheries, and other wildlife associated with prairie wetlands. However, even these uses are jeopardized by detrimental concentrations of trace elements in the water (Anderson and Hawkes, 1984).     

SUSPENDED SEDIMENT AND TURBIDITY FOLLOWING ROAD CONSTRUCTION AND LOGGING IN WESTERN MONTANA1

ABSTRACT: Forest management activities in a second order drainage basin increased suspended sediment yields 7.7 fold in the first year following road construction, and two-fold following logging in the second year. Sediment supply limitations resulted in poor correlations between sediment concentrations with discharge. Sediment transport was strongly hysteretic, with the highest sediment concentrations occurring on the rising limbs of snowmelt hydrographs and individual peaks. In addition to discharge, hydrograph characteristics such as limb, dQ/dt, and the product of dQ/dt and limb aided in explaining variability of observed sediment concentrations. Sediment-turbidity relationships were strongly discharge dependent, reflecting the changing composition of the suspended load with stream power and sediment supplies.     

A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO ASSESS FACTORS AFFECTING WATER CHEMISTRY USING MONITORING DATA1

ABSTRACT: A method to partition the variation in concentrations of water chemistry parameters in a river is described. The approach consists of fitting a family of curves for each chemical parameter. Each curve indicates the response of the parameter to river flow for a particular time period or location. An analysis of covariance is then used to identify statistically significant differences between curves. Such differences result largely from two factors: (1) the discharge of effluents and (2) river flow-concentration relationships. The deviations from the fitted curves indicate month-to-month variations unrelated to river flow that are controlled by factors such as temperature-related seasonal patterns. Underlying statistical assumptions are discussed with respect to water chemistry data. The technique is applied to a data set consisting of monthly samples of 22 water chemistry parameters from the Sulphur River of Texas and Arkansas. Several patterns of response to river flow and to two effluent discharges were revealed.     

Causes of ambient toxicity in the Calleguas Creek watershed of southern California

A combination of toxicity tests, chemical analyses, andToxicity Identification Evaluations (TIEs) were used toinvestigate receiving water toxicity in the Calleguas Creekwatershed of southern California. Studies were conductedfrom 1995 through 1999 at various sites to investigatecauses of temporal variability of toxicity throughout thissystem. Causes of receiving water toxicity varied by siteand species tested. Investigations in the lower watershed(Revolon Slough, Santa Clara Drain, Beardsley Wash)indicated that toxicity of samples to the cladoceran Ceriodaphnia dubia due to elevated concentrations ofthe organophosphate pesticide chlorpyrifos, while causes ofintermittent toxicity to fathead minnows (Pimephalespromelas) and the alga Selanastrum capricornutum wereless clear. Investigations at sites in the middle and upperreaches of the watershed (Arroyo Simi and Conejo Creek)indicated that the pesticide diazinon was the probable causeof receiving water toxicity to Ceriodaphnia. Elevatedammonia was the cause of toxicity to fathead minnows in theupper watershed sites. Results of these and previousstudies suggest that biota are impacted by degraded streamquality from a variety of point and non-point pollutionsources in the Calleguas Creek watershed. Water qualityresource manager's efforts to identify contaminant inputsand implement source control will be improved with thefindings of this study.     

Spatial Relationships Between Water Quality and Pesticide Application Rates in Agricultural Watersheds

Pesticide applications to agricultural lands in California, USA, are reported to a central data base, while data on water and sediment quality are collected by a number of monitoring programs. Data from both sources are geo-referenced, allowing spatial analysis of relationships between pesticide application rates and the chemical and biological condition of water bodies. This study collected data from 12 watersheds, selected to represent a range of pesticide usage. Water quality parameters were measured during six surveys of stream sites receiving runoff from the selected watershed areas. This study had three objectives: to evaluate the usefulness of pesticide application data in selecting regional monitoring sites, to provide information for generating and testing hypotheses about pesticide fate and effects, and to determine whether in-stream nitrate concentration was a useful surrogate indicator for regional monitoring of toxic substances. Significant correlations were observed between pesticide application rates and in-stream pesticide concentrations (p < 0.05) and toxicity (p < 0.10). In-stream nitrate concentrations were not significantly correlated with either the amount of pesticides applied, in-stream pesticide concentrations, or in-stream toxicity (all p > 0.30). Neither total watershed area nor the area in which pesticide usage was reported correlated significantly with the amount of pesticides applied, in-stream pesticide concentrations, or in-stream toxicity (all p > 0.14). In-stream pesticide concentrations and effects were more closely related to the intensity of pesticide use than to the area under cultivation.     

Niche separation in two species of hare. Metabolic costs of plant phenolics

Summary The distributions of mountain hare (Lepus timidus) and European hare (L. europaeus) overlap in central Sweden, but they occupy separate food niches in winter. In Scandinavia, the European hare is mainly a grazer while mountain hare is a predominant browser. Browse contain high amounts of secondary metabolites, such as phenols, compared to grass. This raises the question if the two hare species differ in their metabolic tolerance of plant phenols and that these differences influence their food choice.Phenolic excretion in urine increased significantly with phenolic intake in both species. Excretion of glucuronic acid conjugates, one of the major pathways of elimination of phenols in both hare species, is positively correlated to phenolic intake and excretion. However, the extent of excretion of phenolics by this route was different in the two species of hare. European hares excreted substantially more glucuronic acid per amount of phenolics than mountain hare. The phenols were metabolized to a larger extent in the mountain hare, indicating a higher detoxification capacity. From these results it is likely that European hare have a higher cost for the detoxification of plant phenols compared to mountain hare. This cost and negative effect on sodium balance when feeding on browse may prevent exploitation of forest habitats by European hares, whereas mountain hare are better able to do so.     

Tax policy and secondary material use

Legislative interest in policies to stimulate resource recovery has pointed out the need for an analysis of the determinants of materials flows. This paper characterizes the flows of virgin and secondary materials and explores in detail points where the two materials become substitute commodities. Econometric models specified at these points of substitution in the wastepaper and scrap steel industries are used to analyze various policy options being considered by Congress.     

The effect of taconite tailings on primary productivity in the Silver Bay area of Western Lake Superior

Considerable concern has arisen over the possibility that the discharge of taconite tailings into Lake Superior could affect algal primary productivity. In 1972, primary productivity studies utilizing the carbon-14 technique were run in the Silver Bay area. Samples were collected and analyzed on a weekly basis for a three month period that included a five week plant shutdown period. Resultant productivity data indicate that there is no apparent relationship between primary productivity and the discharge of taconite tailings. Productivity trends in the Silver Bay area tend to conform to the known seasonal behavior of phytoplankton in western Lake Superior.