Coping with uncertainty: a call for a new science-policy forum

The scientific and policy worlds have different goals, which can lead to different standards for what constitutes "proof" of a change or phenomena, and different approaches for characterizing and conveying uncertainty and risk. These differences can compromise effective communication among scientists, policymakers, and the public, and constrain the types of socially compelling questions scientists are willing to address. In this paper, we review a set of approaches for dealing with uncertainty, and illustrate some of the errors that arise when science and policy fail to coordinate correctly. We offer a set of recommendations, including restructuring of science curricula and establishment of science-policy forums populated by leaders in both arenas, and specifically constituted to address problems of uncertainty.     

A closer look at detectability

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - The theory underlying line transect and variable circular plot surveys—distance sampling—begins with an assumed detectability function, giving...     

A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO ASSESS FACTORS AFFECTING WATER CHEMISTRY USING MONITORING DATA1

ABSTRACT: A method to partition the variation in concentrations of water chemistry parameters in a river is described. The approach consists of fitting a family of curves for each chemical parameter. Each curve indicates the response of the parameter to river flow for a particular time period or location. An analysis of covariance is then used to identify statistically significant differences between curves. Such differences result largely from two factors: (1) the discharge of effluents and (2) river flow-concentration relationships. The deviations from the fitted curves indicate month-to-month variations unrelated to river flow that are controlled by factors such as temperature-related seasonal patterns. Underlying statistical assumptions are discussed with respect to water chemistry data. The technique is applied to a data set consisting of monthly samples of 22 water chemistry parameters from the Sulphur River of Texas and Arkansas. Several patterns of response to river flow and to two effluent discharges were revealed.     

Spatial pattern and persistence of historical fire boundaries in southern interior British Columbia

Recent ecosystem and fire management research aims to quantify, model and understand historical fire disturbances focusing on their frequency, size and distribution. Less attention, however, has been paid to fire boundaries and their location on the landscape. Our study presents a spatial method to quantify the location, pattern and persistence of historical fire boundaries using tree ring fire scar data in the lower Stein watershed (British Columbia). Data from Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii collected in 35 one-hectare plots over a 412-hectare study area were analyzed for the period between 1879 and 1947 using local spatial statistics and boundary detection techniques. Results of the analysis using local spatial statistic Moran’s I showed significant clustering of boundaries near topographic breaks. To determine and test whether fire boundaries between plots were persistent, we used boundary detection methods and developed a spatially restricted randomization test. The results revealed that out of 86 possible boundary links, 8 were significantly persistent (P < 0.025) while another 8 were significantly rare (P < 0.025). These spatial methods can help determine the historical spatial configuration of persistent boundaries and can be used to maintain natural forest dynamics.

Mercury in fish from two Nicaraguan lakes: a recommendation for increased monitoring of fish for international commerce

We measured total mercury concentrations in water and fish of Lake Managua and Lake Apoyo. Water mercury concentrations were 10-fold higher in Lake Managua than in Lake Apoyo, although differences in mercury concentration in the most common native fish were not significant. One-fourth of the commercially fished tilapia in Lake Managua exceeded maximum recommended mercury levels for consumption among pregnant women and other at-risk groups, although bioavailability to fishes was lower than in previously studied sites in Brazil and Western Maryland. The lower bioavailiability may present important information for management options to reduce mercury exposure to fishes and humans. We recommend closer mercury monitoring among freshwater fish destined for international commerce.     

The lay system in commercial fisheries: Origin and implications

In most commercial fisheries, the crew is remunerated via some form of the lay system. Under the lay system, the crew is paid with a share of revenues or a share of revenues less costs. Naturally, the presence and the functioning of the lay system are well known and accepted as one of fishery's important institutions. Compared with share contracts in agriculture, however, the lay in fisheries has garnered relatively little research. This article has two goals. First, we provide an explanation for the existence of the lay system as an incentive mechanism to alleviate a potential team agency problem. This explanation of the lay system explains anomalies, such as the presence of wages in some fisheries, that are odds with the theory of pure risk sharing. Second we show the implications of the lay system for econometric modeling of fisheries and for understanding firm behavior. In general we conclude that models that fail to account explicitly for the incentive properties of shares are likely to provide poor representations of fishing firm behavior. The thrust of the paper is that the formation and working of the lay system are a fundamental force in fisheries influencing firm behavior and research results in a way that has been largely ignored.     

Concentration, size distribution, and dry deposition rate of particle-associated metals in the Los Angeles region

Daily averaged atmospheric concentrations and dry deposition fluxes of particulate metals were measured seasonally at six urban sites and one non-urban coastal site in the Los Angeles region using a conventional total suspended particulate matter (TSP) filter, surrogate surface deposition plates, and a Noll Rotary Impactor (NRI), which provides information about particle size distribution in four size ranges above 6 μm. With the exception of the non-urban site, particulate metal concentrations and deposition fluxes were remarkably uniform spatially and temporally. At all sites there were significant metal concentrations on particles greater than 10 μm, a commonly used upper limit for many air quality monitoring studies, and these large particles were estimated to be responsible for most of the deposited mass of metals. Annual averaged values of deposition rates measured with a surrogate surface were in good agreement with values estimated using theoretical deposition velocities in conjunction with measured size-segregated particle concentrations. Image analysis of particles deposited on NRI stage A, which collects all particles greater than 6 μm, indicated nighttime metal concentrations and deposition at the non-urban coastal site was higher than in the day time due to offshore advection of urban air associated with the diurnal land breeze. Measured enrichments of crustal elements and metals were correlated, indicating efficient mixing of natural and anthropogenic material from different sources, hypothesized to be the result of cyclical resuspension and deposition of dust by moving vehicles and wind.     

Modeling oil dispersion under breaking waves. Part II: Coupling Lagrangian particle tracking with population balance model

Environmental Fluid Mechanics - Oil dispersion under a deep-water plunging breaker of height 0.15&nbsp;m was studied by coupling the Lagrangian particle tracking code (NEMO3D) with the...     

Motivating ergonomic computer workstation setup: sometimes training is not enough

Musculoskeletal disorders lead to pain and suffering and result in high costs to industry. There is evidence to suggest that whereas conventional ergonomics training programs result in knowledge gains, they may not necessarily translate to changes in behavior. There were 11 participants in an ergonomics training program, and a subsample of participants received a motivational intervention in the form of incentives for correct workstation setup. Training did not yield any changes in ergonomics measures for any participant. Incentives resulted in marked and durable changes in targeted workstation measures. The data suggest that improving worker knowledge about ergonomically correct workstation setup does not necessarily lead to correct workstation setup, and that motivational interventions may be needed to achieve lasting behavior change.