Balancing urban growth and ecological conservation: A challenge for planning and governance in China

China has high biodiversity and is rapidly urbanizing. However, there is limited understanding of how urban expansion in the country is likely to affect its habitats and biodiversity. In this study, we examine urban expansion patterns and their likely impacts on biodiversity in China by 2030. Our analysis shows that most provinces are expected to experience urban expansion either near their protected areas or in biodiversity hotspots. In a few provinces such as Guangdong in the south, urban expansion is likely to impinge on both protected areas and biodiversity hotspots. We show that policies that could facilitate the integration of natural resource protection into urban planning exist on paper, but the prevailing incentives and institutional arrangements between the central and local governments prevent this kind of integration. Removing these obstacles will be necessary in order to safeguard the country’s rich biodiversity in light of the scale of urbanization underway.     

A spatio-temporal index for heat vulnerability assessment

The public health consequences of extreme heat events are felt most intensely in metropolitan areas where population density is high and the presence of the urban heat island phenomenon exacerbates the potential for prolonged exposure. This research develops an approach to map potential heat stress on humans by combining temperature and relative humidity into an index of apparent temperature. We use ordinary kriging to generate hourly prediction maps describing apparent temperature across the Greater Toronto Area, Canada. Meteorological data were obtained from 65 locations for 6?days in 2008 when extreme heat alerts were issued for the City of Toronto. Apparent temperature and exposure duration were integrated in a single metric, humidex degree hours (HDH), and mapped. The results show a significant difference in apparent temperature between built and natural locations from 3?pm to 7?am; this discrepancy was greatest at 12?am where built locations had a mean of 2.8 index values larger, t(71)?=?5.379, p?<?0.001. Spatial trends in exposure to heat stress (apparent temperature, ≥30°C) show the downtown core of the City of Toronto and much of Mississauga (west of Toronto) as likely to experience hazardous levels of prolonged heat and humidity (HDH?≥?72) during a heat alert. We recommend that public health officials use apparent temperature and exposure duration to develop spatially explicit heat vulnerability assessment tools; HDH is one approach that unites these risk factors into a single metric.     

Eutrophication of mangroves linked to depletion of foliar and soil base cations

There is growing concern that increasing eutrophication causes degradation of coastal ecosystems. Studies in terrestrial ecosystems have shown that increasing the concentration of nitrogen in soils contributes to the acidification process, which leads to leaching of base cations. To test the effects of eutrophication on the availability of base cations in mangroves, we compared paired leaf and soil nutrient levels sampled in Nypa fruticans and Rhizophora spp. on a severely disturbed, i.e. nutrient loaded, site (Mahakam delta) with samples from an undisturbed, near-pristine site (Berau delta) in East Kalimantan, Indonesia. The findings indicate that under pristine conditions, the availability of base cations in mangrove soils is determined largely by salinity. Anthropogenic disturbances on the Mahakam site have resulted in eutrophication, which is related to lower levels of foliar and soil base cations. Path analysis suggests that increasing soil nitrogen reduces soil pH, which in turn reduces the levels of foliar and soil base cations in mangroves.     

Assessment of pumped mercury vapour adsorption tubes as passive samplers using a micro-exposure chamber

Mercury vapour adsorption tubes manufactured for pumped sampling and analysis have been evaluated for their performance as passive samplers. This has been done by exposing these tubes in a novel micro-exposure chamber. The uptake rates of these tubes have been found to be low (approximately 0.215 ml min(-1)) as compared to bespoke passive samplers for mercury vapour (typically in excess of 50 ml min(-1)). The measured uptake rates were shown to vary significantly between tubes and this was attributed to the variability in the air-sorbent interface and the proportion of the cross sectional area removed by the crimp in the quartz tubes used to secure the sorbent material. As a result of this variability the uptake rate of each tube must be determined using the micro-exposure chamber prior to deployment. Results have shown that the uptake rate determined in the micro-exposure chamber is invariant of concentration, and therefore these uptakes rates may be determined at a high mercury vapour concentration for many tubes at once in less than one hour. The uptake rate of the adsorption tubes under these conditions may be determined with a precision of 5%. Measurements made on a limited field trial in indoor and outdoor ambient air have shown that these tubes give results in acceptable agreement with more traditional pumped sampling methods, although longer sampling periods are required in order to reduce the uncertainty of the measurement, which is currently approximately 30%.     

Correspondence of biological condition models of California streams at statewide and regional scales

We used boosted regression trees (BRT) to model stream biological condition as measured by benthic macroinvertebrate taxonomic completeness, the ratio of observed to expected (O/E) taxa. Models were developed with and without exclusion of rare taxa at a site. BRT models are robust, requiring few assumptions compared with traditional modeling techniques such as multiple linear regression. The BRT models were constructed to provide baseline support to stressor delineation by identifying natural physiographic and human land use gradients affecting stream biological condition statewide and for eight ecological regions within the state, as part of the development of numerical biological objectives for California’s wadeable streams. Regions were defined on the basis of ecological, hydrologic, and jurisdictional factors and roughly corresponded with ecoregions. Physiographic and land use variables were derived from geographic information system coverages. The model for the entire state (n?=?1,386) identified a composite measure of anthropogenic disturbance (the sum of urban, agricultural, and unmanaged roadside vegetation land cover) within the local watershed as the most important variable, explaining 56 % of the variance in O/E values. Models for individual regions explained between 51 and 84 % of the variance in O/E values. Measures of human disturbance were important in the three coastal regions. In the South Coast and Coastal Chaparral, local watershed measures of urbanization were the most important variables related to biological condition, while in the North Coast the composite measure of human disturbance at the watershed scale was most important. In the two mountain regions, natural gradients were most important, including slope, precipitation, and temperature. The remaining three regions had relatively small sample sizes (n?≤?75 sites) and had models that gave mixed results. Understanding the spatial scale at which land use and land cover affect taxonomic completeness is imperative for sound management. Our results suggest that invertebrate taxonomic completeness is affected by human disturbance at the statewide and regional levels, with some differences among regions in the importance of natural gradients and types of human disturbance. The construction and application of models similar to the ones presented here could be useful in the planning and prioritization of actions for protection and conservation of biodiversity in California streams.     

Monitoring effects of remediation on natural sediment recovery in Sydney Harbour, Nova Scotia

Chemical contaminants were assessed in Sydney Harbour, Nova Scotia during pre-remediation (baseline) and 3 years of remediation of a former coking and steel facility after nearly a century of operation and historical pollution into the Sydney Tar Ponds (STP). Concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls, metals, and inorganic parameters measured in sediments and total suspended solids in seawater indicate that the overall spatial distribution pattern of historical contaminants remains unchanged, although at much lower concentrations than previously reported due to natural sediment recovery, despite remediation activities. Measured sediment deposition rates in bottom-moored traps during baseline were low (0.4–0.8 cm?year^?1), but during dredging operations required for construction of new port facilities in the inner Sydney Harbour, sedimentation rates were equivalent to 26–128 cm year^?1. Measurements of sediment chemical contaminants confirmed that natural recovery rates of Sydney Harbour sediments were in broad agreement with predicted concentrations, or in some cases, lower than originally predicted despite remediation activities at the STP site. Overall, most measured contaminants in sediments showed little temporal variability (4 years), except for the detection of significant increases in total PAH concentrations during the onset of remediation monitoring compared to baseline. This slight increase represents only a short-term interruption in the overall natural recovery of sediments in Sydney Harbour, which were enhanced due to the positive impacts of large-scale dredging of less contaminated outer harbor sediments which were discharged into a confined disposal area located in the inner harbor.     

Inorganic arsenic levels in baby rice are of concern

Inorganic arsenic is a chronic exposure carcinogen. Analysis of UK baby rice revealed a median inorganic arsenic content (n = 17) of 0.11 mg/kg. By plotting inorganic arsenic against total arsenic, it was found that inorganic concentrations increased linearly up to 0.25 mg/kg total arsenic, then plateaued at 0.16 mg/kg at higher total arsenic concentrations. Inorganic arsenic intake by babies (4-12 months) was considered with respect to current dietary ingestion regulations. It was found that 35% of the baby rice samples analysed would be illegal for sale in China which has regulatory limit of 0.15 mg/kg inorganic arsenic. EU and US food regulations on arsenic are non-existent. When baby inorganic arsenic intake from rice was considered, median consumption (expressed as μg/kg/d) was higher than drinking water maximum exposures predicted for adults in these regions when water intake was expressed on a bodyweight basis.     

Predicted distributed state effects on enhanced biological phosphorus removal in a 5-stage Bardenpho wastewater treatment configuration.

Conventional wastewater treatment simulation programs use a "lumped" approach, where process rates are calculated using bulk concentrations of biomass and microbial storage products. A recently developed distributed, or agent-based, approach, where individual bacteria are modeled to account for their potentially variable hydraulic experiences, was applied to the 5-stage Bardenpho process, a type of enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR) that includes internal recycle flows, which were hypothesized to affect distributed state development. Consistent with previous results, the EBPR predicted performance was worse according to the distributed approach than the lumped approach. In addition, increasing the internal recycle rate increased the anoxic reactor nitrate concentrations, tending to decrease EBPR performance. However, in the distributed approach, differences in the state distributions in internal recycle-linked reactors decreased with increasing recycle flow, tending to improve EBPR. These phenomena tend to have simultaneous and opposite effects on EBPR. The net effect will depend largely on the specific systems and the nitrate concentration in anoxic reactors.     

Emission projections for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Section 812 second prospective Clean Air Act cost/benefit analysis

Section 812 of the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 requires the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to perform periodic, comprehensive analyses of the total costs and total benefits of programs implemented pursuant to the CAAA. The first prospective analysis was completed in 1999. The second prospective analysis was initiated during 2005. The first step in the second prospective analysis was the development of base and projection year emission estimates that will be used to generate benefit estimates of CAAA programs. This paper describes the analysis, methods, and results of the recently completed emission projections. There are several unique features of this analysis. One is the use of consistent economic assumptions from the Department of Energy's Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005) projections as the basis for estimating 2010 and 2020 emissions for all sectors. Another is the analysis of the different emissions paths for both with and without CAAA scenarios. Other features of this analysis include being the first EPA analysis that uses the 2002 National Emission Inventory files as the basis for making 48-state emission projections, incorporating control factor files from the Regional Planning Organizations (RPOs) that had completed emission projections at the time the analysis was performed, and modeling the emission benefits of the expected adoption of measures to meet the 8-hr ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), the Clean Air Visibility Rule, and the PM2.5 NAAQS. This analysis shows that the 1990 CAAA have produced significant reductions in criteria pollutant emissions since 1990 and that these emission reductions are expected to continue through 2020. CAAA provisions have reduced volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by approximately 7 million t/yr by 2000, and are estimated to produce associated VOC emission reductions of 16.7 million t by 2020. Total oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)) emission reductions attributable to the CAAA are 5, 12, and 17 million t in 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission benefits during the study period are dominated by electricity-generating unit (EGU) SO2 emission reductions. These EGU emission benefits go from 7.5 million t reduced in 2000 to 15 million t reduced in 2020.