The limits of technological optimism

Summary Technological optimism is the doctrine that a growing number of technological improvements in such areas as food production, environmental quality and energy will sustain life as human population soars. It evolved as a response to the Malthusian study The Limits to Growth (The Club of Rome, 1972). Like population biologist Paul Ehrlich, Professor James Krier of the University of Michigan Law School believes that the technological optimists may be wrong. Krier describes how the marginal costs of pollution control increasingly rise. He faults biologist Barry Commoner for neglecting population growth as the cause of pollution and positing the postwar technological transition as its cause. He argues that population growth forced this transition as science searched for substitutes for dwindling resources. Krier criticises as an article of faith the technological optimists' belief that S-curve patterns of technological advance will always arrive in response to the J-curve of exponential population growth. He thinks that the technological optimists may be deluding humanity by predicting the continual emergence of technological breakthroughs at ever-increasing rates. He favours growth policies that would allow humanity to ease into a steady state of resource use and minimise the maximum cost, which would be a global crash after technological innovation fails. Krier laments that modern technolgy can worsen pollution and invites problems of latency, irreversibility, zero-infinity risk and remoteness. He thinks that approapriate technologies which have failed economically may fail politically because the political process has been captured by opposing interests. Krier urges that the population crisis should be adressed insteadAndrew D. Basiago is a graduate of UCLA and Northwestern School of Law's environmental law programme. As writer, lawyer and environmental planner he has written articles about ecology for the Cousteau Society and interviewed such luminaries as R. Buckminster Fuller, Amory B. Lovins and     

Evaluation of diffusive samplers and photoionisation detectors for measuring very short peak exposures in the workplace

The extent to which very short peak widths, peak frequency, sampling time and post-sampling/pre-capping time impact upon occupational exposure measurements of toluene has been investigated using diffusive tubes. Additionally, the effect of the width of the peak on the estimation of peak maximum concentration and time-weighted average (TWA) concentration from real-time instruments (photoionisation detectors-PIDs) was also studied, and their responses modelled. No clear differences were perceived between diffusive and pumped tube results. Mean biases of -5 to +6% were recorded but no trend could be distinguished with respect to any of the variables examined; the main source of uncertainty was attributed to analytical uncertainty. The diffusive tubes can therefore be used to measure short term transient toluene concentrations (e.g. 5 s duration) over short (15 min) exposure periods. The two slower responding PIDs (t50 = 4 s) underestimated the maximum concentration of short term peaks having durations less than 10 s. The other three PIDs (t50 < or = 2 s) only significantly underestimated the maximum concentration of short term peaks having durations of 2 s and below. Pulse duration appeared to affect the PID's estimation of peak height more than peak area (TWA concentration).     

A yeast-based cytotoxicity and genotoxicity assay for environmental monitoring using novel portable instrumentation

An assay capable of simultaneously measuring both general toxicity and more subtle genotoxicity, in aqueous environmental samples, is described. The assay uses eukaryotic (yeast) cells, genetically modified to express a green fluorescent protein (GFP) whenever DNA damage, as a result of exposure to genotoxic agents, is repaired. A measure of the reduction in cell proliferation is used to characterise general toxicity producing familiar EC(50) and LOEC data. The assay protocol has been developed for proposed use in the field and hence employs dedicated, portable instrumentation, the development of which is described. A range of environmentally relevant substances has been evaluated using the assay, including solutions of metal ions, solvents and pesticides. Preliminary data comparing the yeast assay's response to that of a standard Daphnia test in the analysis of the toxicity of 34 varied industrial waste effluents are also presented. The sensitivity to a wide range of substances and effluents suggests the assay should be useful for environmental toxicity monitoring.     

An Overview of Contaminant-Related Issues Identified by Monitoring in San Francisco Bay

The San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program for Trace Substances (RMP) began in 1993 and is sponsored by 74 local, state, and federal agencies and companies through their discharge or Bay use permits. The RMP monitors water, sediment, toxicity, and bivalve bioaccumulation at 25 sites in the Bay that are considered to represent "background" conditions. Several major environmental issues have been identified by the RMP. Polychlorinated biphenyls and mercury were often above water quality guidelines, and often occurred in fish tissues above U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) screening values. Concentrations do not appear to be decreasing, suggesting continuing inputs. Episodes of aquatic toxicity often occurred following runoff events that transport contaminants into the Bay from urbanized and agricultural portions of the watershed. Sediment toxicity occurred throughout the Bay, and has been correlated with concentrations of specific contaminants (chlordanes, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons) at some locations; mixtures of contaminants were probably also important. Since the RMP does not monitor all ecosystem components, assessments of the overall condition of the Bay cannot be made. However, in terms of contamination, the RMP samples suggest that the South Bay, and North Bay sites are moderately contaminated.     

Toward Explaining Nitrogen and Phosphorus Trends in Chesapeake Bay Tributaries, 1992–2012

Understanding trends in stream chemistry is critical to watershed management, and often complicated by multiple contaminant sources and landscape conditions changing over varying time scales. We adapted spatially referenced regression (SPARROW) to infer causes of recent nutrient trends in Chesapeake Bay tributaries by relating observed fluxes during 1992, 2002, and 2012 to contemporary inputs and watershed conditions. The annual flow‐normalized nitrogen flux to the bay from its watershed declined by 14% to 127,000 Mg (metric tons) between 1992 and 2012, due primarily (more than 80% of the decline) to reduced point sources. The remainder of the decline was due to reduced atmospheric deposition (13%) and urban nonpoint sources. Agricultural inputs, which contribute most nitrogen to the bay, changed little, although trends in the average nitrogen yield (flux per unit area) from cropland and pasture to streams in some settings suggest possible effects of evolving nutrient applications or other land management practices. Point sources of phosphorus to local streams declined by half between 1992 and 2012, while nonpoint inputs were relatively unchanged. Annual phosphorus delivery to the bay increased by 9% to 9,570 Mg between 1992 and 2012, however, due mainly to reduced retention in the Susquehanna River at Conowingo Reservoir.     

A dental stool with chest support reduces lower back muscle activation

Activation of back musculature during work tasks leads to fatigue and potential injury. This is especially prevalent in dentists who perform much of their work from a seated position. We examined the use of an ergonomic dental stool with mid-sternum chest support for reducing lower back muscle activation. Electromyography of lower back extensors was assessed from 30 dental students for 20?s during three conditions in random order: (a) sitting upright at 90° of hip flexion on a standard stool, (b) leaning forward at 80° of hip flexion on a standard stool, and (c) leaning forward at 80° of hip flexion while sitting on an ergonomic stool. Muscular activity of the back extensors was reduced when using the ergonomic stool compared to the standard stool, by 33–50% (p?相似文献   

The influence of building renovation and rental housing on urban trees

Urban forest ecosystems are complex and vulnerable social–ecological systems. The relationship between urban forests and housing is particularly variable and uncertain. We examine the influence of building renovation and rental housing on public trees at the parcel and street-section scale in a residential neighbourhood in Toronto, Canada. We use empirical data describing multiple tree inventories and government open data describing building permit applications to test for effects on urban forest structure, tree mortality, and tree planting. We found that the presence and number of building permits significantly predicted mortality at both scales, while planting was positively correlated with building permits at the street-section scale only. Multi-unit parcels had significantly lower rates of planting than single-unit parcels and multi-unit housing was positively correlated with mortality at the street-section scale. These findings suggest that where concentrated changes in housing stock are occurring, substantial losses of trees and associated ecosystem services are possible.     

On the functional extinction of the Passenger Pigeon

The Passenger Pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius) was a social breeder, and it has been suggested that the species experienced functional extinction, defined as a total reproductive failure, prior to its actual extinction in the early years of the 20th century. We applied a novel randomization test based on the relative times of the most recent egg‐ and skin‐specimen sightings (i.e., recorded date of specimen collection) to test for functional extinction. For a total of 6 eggs and 27 skins, the observed significance level was 0.38, which indicated that the species did not become functionally extinct. Thus, proposals to reverse its rapid decline in the late 19th century could have been successful.     

Quantifying the relative irreplaceability of important bird and biodiversity areas

World governments have committed to increase the global protected areas coverage by 2020, but the effectiveness of this commitment for protecting biodiversity depends on where new protected areas are located. Threshold‐ and complementarity‐based approaches have been independently used to identify important sites for biodiversity. We brought together these approaches by performing a complementarity‐based analysis of irreplaceability in important bird and biodiversity areas (IBAs), which are sites identified using a threshold‐based approach. We determined whether irreplaceability values are higher inside than outside IBAs and whether any observed difference depends on known characteristics of the IBAs. We focused on 3 regions with comprehensive IBA inventories and bird distribution atlases: Australia, southern Africa, and Europe. Irreplaceability values were significantly higher inside than outside IBAs, although differences were much smaller in Europe than elsewhere. Higher irreplaceability values in IBAs were associated with the presence and number of restricted‐range species; number of criteria under which the site was identified; and mean geographic range size of the species for which the site was identified (trigger species). In addition, IBAs were characterized by higher irreplaceability values when using proportional species representation targets, rather than fixed targets. There were broadly comparable results when measuring irreplaceability for trigger species and when considering all bird species, which indicates a good surrogacy effect of the former. Recently, the International Union for Conservation of Nature has convened a consultation to consolidate global standards for the identification of key biodiversity areas (KBAs), building from existing approaches such as IBAs. Our results informed this consultation, and in particular a proposed irreplaceability criterion that will allow the new KBA standard to draw on the strengths of both threshold‐ and complementarity‐based approaches.