A case study of an isolated wind powered electricity system meeting 100% of local demand

Using meteorological and electricity demand data for a 4-year period, electricity demand in Shetland was modeled to provide an estimate of the demand over a 30-year period from 1 January 1981. That modeled demand was then compared to estimated wind power output over the same period using the WAsP model. The wind farm output was estimated for a range of sizes of wind farm up to the consented 370 MW Viking Wind Farm in Shetland. Some wind power was available for 94% of the time and the 370 MW wind farm would meet 100% of demand for nearly 80% of the time. The statistics of single and accumulated deficits were calculated for a range of wind farms and estimates of the amount of additional generation capacity and additional power requirements were assessed. The study suggests that with storage, wind power in Shetland could meet all electricity demand in Shetland at around £130 to £150/MWh (excluding subsidy) and with a grid connection allowing the sale of excess power, those costs could be reduced.     

Contaminant mass flux and forensic assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: Tools to inform remediation decision making at a contaminated site in Canada

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and metal(loid) mass flux estimates and forensic assessment using PAH diagnostic ratios were used to inform remediation decision making at the Sydney Tar Ponds (STPs) and Coke Ovens cleanup project in eastern Canada. Environmental effects monitoring of surface marine sediments in Sydney Harbor indicated significantly higher PAH concentrations during the first year of remediation monitoring compared to baseline. This was equivalent to PAH loadings of ～2,000 kg over a 15‐month period. Increases in sediment PAH concentrations raised serious concerns for regulators, who requested cessation of remediation activities early in the $400 M (CAD) project. Historically, the STPs were reported as the primary source of PAH contamination in Sydney Harbor with estimated discharges of 300 to 800 kg/year between 1989 and 2001. Mass flux estimates of PAHs and metal(loid)s and PAH diagnostic ratios were used to evaluate if increases in PAH concentrations in marine sediments were the result of the STPs remediation activities. PAH mass flux estimates approximated that 17 to 97 kg/year were discharged from the STPs during three years of remediation and were corroborated by an independent PAH flux estimate of 119 kg in year 1. PAH fluxes to the Sydney Harbor were mostly surface water derived, with groundwater contributing negligible quantities (0.002–0.005 kg/year). Fluxes of metal(loid)s to harbor sediments were stable or declining across all years and were mirrored in sediment metal(loid) concentrations, which lacked temporal variation, unlike total PAH concentrations. Flux results were also corroborated using PAH diagnostic ratios, which found a common source of PAHs. Coal combustion was likely the principal source of PAHs and not migration from the STPs during remediation. Although short‐term residual sediment PAH increases during onset of remediation raised concerns for regulators, calls for premature cessation of remediation early in the project were unwarranted based on only one year of monitoring data. Mass flux estimates and forensic assessments using PAH diagnostic ratios proved useful tools to inform remediation decision making that helped environmental protection and reduced costs associated with lost cleanup time.     

Identifying natural and anthropogenic sources of metals in urban and rural soils using GIS-based data,PCA, and spatial interpolation

Determining sources of neurotoxic metals in rural and urban soils is important for mitigating human exposure. Surface soil from four areas with significant clusters of mental retardation and developmental delay (MR/DD) in children, and one control site were analyzed for nine metals and characterized by soil type, climate, ecological region, land use and industrial facilities using readily available GIS-based data. Kriging, principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) were used to identify commonalities of metal distribution. Three MR/DD areas (one rural and two urban) had similar soil types and significantly higher soil metal concentrations. PCA and CA results suggested that Ba, Be and Mn were consistently from natural sources; Pb and Hg from anthropogenic sources; and As, Cr, Cu, and Ni from both sources. Arsenic had low commonality estimates, was highly associated with a third PCA factor, and had a complex distribution, complicating mitigation strategies to minimize concentrations and exposures.     

TBT contamination of remote marine environments: ship groundings and ice-breakers as sources of organotins in the Great Barrier Reef and Antarctica

Remote marine environments such as many parts of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and the Antarctic are often assumed to be among the most pristine natural habitats. While distance protects them from many sources of pollution, recent studies have revealed extremely high concentrations of organotins in areas associated with shipping activities. Sediments at sites of ship groundings on the GBR have been found to contain up to 340,000 microg Sn kg(-1). Very high concentrations (up to 2290 microg Sn kg(-1)) have been detected in nearshore Antarctic sediments adjacent to channels cut through sea ice by ice-breaking vessels. In both cases, the bulk of the contamination is associated with flakes of antifouling paint abraded from vessel hulls, resulting in patchy but locally intense contamination of sediments. These particulates are likely to continue releasing organotins, rendering grounding sites and ice-breaking routes point-sources of contamination of surrounding environments. While the areas exposed to biologically-harmful concentrations of leached chemicals are likely to be limited in extent (1000-10,000 m(2)), deposition of antifouling paints constitutes a persistent ecological risk in otherwise pristine marine environments of high conservation value. The risk of contamination of GBR and Antarctic sediments by organotins needs to be considered against an important alternative risk: that less effective antifouling of ships hulls may increase the frequency of successful invasions by non-indigenous species. Additional options to minimise ecological risk include accident prevention and reducing organotin contamination from grounding sites through removal or treatment of contaminated sediments, as has been done at some sites in the GBR.     

Research priorities for managing the impacts and dependencies of business upon food,energy, water and the environment

Delivering access to sufficient food, energy and water resources to ensure human wellbeing is a major concern for governments worldwide. However, it is crucial to account for the ‘nexus’ of interactions between these natural resources and the consequent implications for human wellbeing. The private sector has a critical role in driving positive change towards more sustainable nexus management and could reap considerable benefits from collaboration with researchers to devise solutions to some of the foremost sustainability challenges of today. Yet opportunities are missed because the private sector is rarely involved in the formulation of deliverable research priorities. We convened senior research scientists and influential business leaders to collaboratively identify the top forty questions that, if answered, would best help companies understand and manage their food-energy-water-environment nexus dependencies and impacts. Codification of the top order nexus themes highlighted research priorities around development of pragmatic yet credible tools that allow businesses to incorporate nexus interactions into their decision-making; demonstration of the business case for more sustainable nexus management; identification of the most effective levers for behaviour change; and understanding incentives or circumstances that allow individuals and businesses to take a leadership stance. Greater investment in the complex but productive relations between the private sector and research community will create deeper and more meaningful collaboration and cooperation.     

When experts disagree: the need to rethink indicator selection for assessing sustainability of agriculture

Sustainability indicators are well recognized for their potential to assess and monitor sustainable development of agricultural systems. A large number of indicators are proposed in various sustainability assessment frameworks, which raises concerns regarding the validity of approaches, usefulness and trust in such frameworks. Selecting indicators requires transparent and well-defined procedures to ensure the relevance and validity of sustainability assessments. The objective of this study, therefore, was to determine whether experts agree on which criteria are most important in the selection of indicators and indicator sets for robust sustainability assessments. Two groups of experts (Temperate Agriculture Research Network and New Zealand Sustainability Dashboard) were asked to rank the relative importance of eleven criteria for selecting individual indicators and of nine criteria for balancing a collective set of indicators. Both ranking surveys reveal a startling lack of consensus amongst experts about how best to measure agricultural sustainability and call for a radical rethink about how complementary approaches to sustainability assessments are used alongside each other to ensure a plurality of views and maximum collaboration and trust amongst stakeholders. To improve the transparency, relevance and robustness of sustainable assessments, the context of the sustainability assessment, including prioritizations of selection criteria for indicator selection, must be accounted for. A collaborative design process will enhance the acceptance of diverse values and prioritizations embedded in sustainability assessments. The process by which indicators and sustainability frameworks are established may be a much more important determinant of their success than the final shape of the assessment tools. Such an emphasis on process would make assessments more transparent, transformative and enduring.     

Perceived stressors of climate vulnerability across scales in the Savannah zone of Ghana: a participatory approach

Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are confronted with climatic and non-climatic stressors. Research attention has focused on climatic stressors, such as rainfall variability, with few empirical studies exploring non-climatic stressors and how these interact with climatic stressors at multiple scales to affect food security and livelihoods. This focus on climatic factors restricts understanding of the combinations of stressors that exacerbate the vulnerability of farming households and hampers the development of holistic climate change adaptation policies. This study addresses this particular research gap by adopting a multi-scale approach to understand how climatic and non-climatic stressors vary, and interact, across three spatial scales (household, community and district levels) to influence livelihood vulnerability of smallholder farming households in the Savannah zone of northern Ghana. This study across three case study villages utilises a series of participatory tools including semi-structured interviews, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. The incidence, importance, severity and overall risk indices for stressors are calculated at the household, community, and district levels. Results show that climatic and non-climatic stressors were perceived differently; yet, there were a number of common stressors including lack of money, high cost of farm inputs, erratic rainfall, cattle destruction of crops, limited access to markets and lack of agricultural equipment that crossed all scales. Results indicate that the gender of respondents influenced the perception and severity assessment of stressors on rural livelihoods at the community level. Findings suggest a mismatch between local and district level priorities that have implications for policy and development of agricultural and related livelihoods in rural communities. Ghana’s climate change adaptation policies need to take a more holistic approach that integrates both climatic and non-climatic factors to ensure policy coherence between national climate adaptation plans and District development plans.     

Modeling and data assessment of longitudinal salinity in a low-gradient estuarine river

Continuous data of vertical-profile salinity were analyzed for four stations located successively upriver in a macrotidal estuary, the lower St. Johns River (Northeast Florida, USA). The data analysis confirmed well-mixed salinity conditions in the river with at most 1.3 ppt of vertical variability at Dames Point (river km 20), where the main variations of salinity are along the longitudinal axis of the river. Given the well-mixed salinity conditions and dominant horizontal structure of salinity variations in the river, we present and apply a barotropic, two-dimensional modeling approach for hydrodynamic-salinity transport simulation in the lower St. Johns River. When properly forced by offshore surge, high-resolution wind fields and freshwater river inflows, the model replicated the salinity measurements remarkably well, including the separation into tidal and sub-tidal components. The data and model results show that, at times, offshore winds and surge can be more influential on longitudinal salinity variations than local winds over the river. We demonstrate the importance of using proper boundary conditions to force the model relative to the minimal sensitivity of the model to parameter adjustment of horizontal mixing and uncertainty-based perturbation of wind and inflow forcings.     

Spatiotemporal changes and fragmentation of mangroves and its effects on fish diversity in Ca Mau Province (Vietnam)

Mangroves are important economically and ecologically, however mangrove cover has declined dramatically leading to habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss. Information on mangrove cover change, fragmentation and impacts on fish diversity is poorly understood. The aims of this study are to detect spatiotemporal changes and mangrove status, examine fragmentation changes and associated effects on fish diversity. Landsat images in1989, 2000, and 2013 were used to classify mangrove cover in Ca Mau Province (Vietnam) and validated against high resolution Pleiades imagery. Fragmentation changes in mangrove cover were examined using series of landscape metrics evaluated against fish diversity indices (Simpson’s index, Jaccard’s coefficient and relative abundance). Results show that mangrove cover has declined 24.6% in the province. Currently, high and moderately dense mangroves distribute in southern half of the region while the low density mangroves occurs in the northern half. Over the 24 year study periods, the number of patches and edge density has increased 58% and 53.9%, respectively, while the mean patch size and mean patch edge has decreased 52.3% and 26.6%. Fish diversity in the more highly fragmented mangrove area was 1.78 times lower than the less fragmented mangrove. The study illustrates the applicability of using Landsat satellite imagery for use in mangrove fragmentation studies as well as the impact of fragmentation.