The effectiveness of forecast-based humanitarian assistance in anticipation of extreme winters: a case study of vulnerable herders in Mongolia

This paper presents evidence relating to a forecast-based cash and non-food item distribution among vulnerable herder households during the 2017–18 dzud (extreme winter) season in Mongolia, and analyses the results of a quasi-experimental study evaluating its impacts. An innovative approach in disaster risk reduction, forecast-based financing (FbF) can have short- and long-term benefits to vulnerable households but remains understudied. The paper contributes information on a multimodal FbF programme offering one-off cash grants and in-kind veterinary kits. The data found significant effects of reduced mortality and increased offspring survival in some types of livestock, and that the timing of FbF assistance is crucial, as reported early assistance correlated to positive outcomes in terms of reduced animal mortality. These findings can be used to design more effective FbF interventions, to understand better the appropriateness of FbF designs, and to use early warnings and early actions to help people prepare and withstand disasters such as dzuds.     

Discordant fetal sex on NIPT and ultrasound

Prenatal diagnosis of sex discordance is a relatively new phenomenon. Prior to cell-free DNA testing, the diagnosis of a disorder of sexual differentiation was serendipitous, either through identification of ambiguous genitalia at the midtrimester morphology ultrasound or discovery of genotype-phenotype discordance in cases where preimplantation genetic diagnosis or invasive prenatal testing had occurred. The widespread integration of cfDNA testing into modern antenatal screening has made sex chromosome assessment possible from 10 weeks of gestation, and discordant fetal sex is now more commonly diagnosed prenatally, with a prevalence of approximately 1 in 1500-2000 pregnancies. Early detection of phenotype-genotype sex discordance is important as it may indicate an underlying genetic, chromosomal or biochemical condition and it also allows for time-critical postnatal treatment. The aim of this article is to review cfDNA and ultrasound diagnosis of fetal sex, identify possible causes of phenotype-genotype discordance and provide a systematic approach for clinicians when counseling and managing couples in this circumstance.     

THE DISCHARGE OF SEDIMENT IN CHANNELIZED ALLUVIAL STREAMS1

ABSTRACT: Approximately 400 million cubic feet of channel sediments have been delivered to the Mississippi River from the Obion-Forked Deer River system in the last 20 years. The discharge of sediment from these channelized networks in West Tennessee varies systematically with the stage of channel evolution. Variations in yields over time reflect the shifting dominance of fluvial and mass-wasting processes as the networks adjust to lower energy conditions. Maximum bed-material discharges occur during the initial phases of degradation (Stage III). In contrast, yields of suspended-sediment peak during the threshold stage (Stage 1V: large-scale mass wasting) as sediments are delivered from main-channel banks and tributary beds. Suspended-sediment yields then decrease as aggradation (Stage V) becomes the dominant trend in the main channels, but remains relatively high through restabiliza-tion (Stage VI) because of continued degradation and widening in the tributaries. Bed-material discharges decrease from the degradation stage (III) to Stage V, and increase again during restabiliza-tion (Stage VI) because secondary aggradation increases gradients and incipient meandering serves to rework bed sediments. This secondary maxima in bed-material discharge is analogous to those described previously as complex, or oscillatory, response. The trends of sediment production and transport described from these rejuvenated networks are in agreement with experimental and theoretical results of earlier investigations.     

Organizational change and the greening process at amoco

Implementing environmentalism in the internal operations of a firm requires a reassignment of responsibilities and functions. New job tasks are created while old ones are altered to incorporate new perspectives and responsibilities that reflect broader societal demands. In essence, what evolves is a new firm, but what exactly does this mean? After a broad analysis of the environmental transformation of American industry, four basic changes within the organizational framework of dealing with environmentalism are identified: an evolution of the environmental management function, alteration of the overall structure of the organization, expansion of the boundaries of the firm, and changes in corporate culture. The author shows how these shifts occur in sequential order as increasing uncertainty promotes the search for answers from more diverse sources. Ultimately, as environmentalism continues to evolve, it increasingly infuses itself into the corporate culture. The following article presents this model and a case study of the Amoco Corporation.     

Bird conservation and the land sharing-sparing continuum in farmland-dominated landscapes of lowland England

Empirical evidence from many regions suggests that most species would be least negatively affected if human food demand were met through high-yield agricultural production and conservation of nonfarm ecosystems (land sparing), rather than through wildlife-friendly farming over a larger area (land sharing). However, repeated glaciation and a long history of agriculture may lead to different results in regions such as western Europe. We compared the consequences of land sparing and land sharing on breeding bird species in 2 lowland regions of England, The Fens, with 101 species, and Salisbury Plain, with 83. We derived density–yield responses for each species and then estimated regional population size under regional food production strategies, including land sharing and land sparing, a range of intermediate strategies, and a novel mixed strategy. In both regions, more species achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing than land sharing. In The Fens, the majority of birds were loser species (estimated to have smaller populations under all food production strategies than in the preagricultural baseline scenario), whereas in Salisbury Plain the majority were winners (smaller populations in the preagricultural baseline scenario). Loser species overwhelmingly achieved maximum regional population size under land sparing, whereas winner species achieved maximum regional population size under either land sharing or an intermediate strategy, highlighting the importance of defining which groups of species are the target of conservation. A novel 3-compartment strategy (combining high-yield farming, natural habitat, and low-yield farming) often performed better than either land sharing or land sparing. Our results support intermediate or 3-compartment land-sparing strategies to maximize bird populations across lowland agricultural landscapes. To deliver conservation outcomes, any shift toward land sparing must, however, ensure yield increases are sustainable in the long term, do not entail increased negative effects on surrounding areas, and are linked to allocation of land for nature.     

NELUP: Some Reflections on Undertaking and Reporting InterdisciplinaryRiver Catchment Modelling

NELUP was a five-year academic research project into interdisciplinary river catchment modelling. The experience of staff involved offers useful insights into the intellectual and practical problems associated with interdisciplinary catchment management research and the dissemination and acceptance of results. In particular, it is suggested that: entrenched academic territories, derived from disciplinary and data differences, make managing an interdisciplinary team of researchers a non-trivial task; data errors, model complexity and model generality masked by a seductively sophisticated-looking DSS risk an illusion of technique; and that acceptance of decision support is hindered by practitionersand policy makers' suspicion of potential automated decision making by default.     

A review of medical error taxonomies: A human factors perspective

Although a large number of medical error taxonomies have been published, there is little evidence to suggest that these taxonomies have been systematically compared. This paper describes a study comparing 26 medical error taxonomies using a human factors perspective. The taxonomies were examined to determine if they classified systemic factors of medical errors and if they utilized theoretical error concepts in their classifications. Scope of classification was also examined. It was found that two-thirds of the taxonomies classified systemic factors of medical errors and only a third utilized theoretical error concepts. Medical error taxonomies based on theoretical error concepts were more likely to be generic in applicability and also more likely to classify systemic factors and psychological error mechanisms of medical errors. In addition to terminology, the medical error taxonomies also varied in terms of domain-specificity, granularity, and developmental process. Different medical error taxonomies provide different information; how these differences affect medical error management needs to be investigated.