Use of Predictive Weather Uncertainties in an Irrigation Scheduling Tool Part II: An Application of Metrics and Adjoints

We apply predictive weather metrics and land model sensitivities to improve the Colorado State University Water Irrigation Scheduler for Efficient Application (WISE). WISE is an irrigation decision aid that integrates environmental and user information for optimizing water use. Rainfall forecasts and verification performance metrics are used to estimate predictive rainfall probabilities that are used as input data within the irrigation decision aid. These input data errors are also used within a land model sensitivity study to diagnose important prognostic water movement behaviors for irrigation tool development purposes simultaneously performing the analysis in space and time. Thus, important questions such as “how long can a crop water application be delayed while maintaining crop yield production?” are addressed by evaluating crop growth stage interactions as a function of soil depth (i.e., space), rainfall events (i.e., time), and their probabilistic uncertainties. Editor’s note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Comparison and Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation Datasets in a Kansas Agricultural Watershed Using SWAT

Gridded precipitation datasets are becoming a convenient substitute for gauge measurements in hydrological modeling; however, these data have not been fully evaluated across a range of conditions. We compared four gridded datasets (Daily Surface Weather and Climatological Summaries [DAYMET], North American Land Data Assimilation System [NLDAS], Global Land Data Assimilation System [GLDAS], and Parameter‐elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) as precipitation data sources and evaluated how they affected hydrologic model performance when compared with a gauged dataset, Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Analyses were performed for the Delaware Watershed at Perry Lake in eastern Kansas. Precipitation indices for DAYMET and PRISM precipitation closely matched GHCN‐D, whereas NLDAS and GLDAS showed weaker correlations. We also used these precipitation data as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that confirmed similar trends in streamflow simulation. For stations with complete data, GHCN‐D based SWAT‐simulated streamflow variability better than gridded precipitation data. During low flow periods we found PRISM performed better, whereas both DAYMET and NLDAS performed better in high flow years. Our results demonstrate that combining gridded precipitation sources with gauge‐based measurements can improve hydrologic model performance, especially for extreme events.     

Comparison of Nitrate Levels in Raw Water and Finished Water from Historical Monitoring Data on Iowa Municipal Drinking Water Supplies

Nitrate contamination of water sources is a concern where large amounts of nitrogen fertilizers are regularly applied to soils. Ingested nitrate from dietary sources and drinking water can be converted to nitrite and ultimately to N-nitroso compounds, many of which are known carcinogens. Epidemiologic studies of drinking water nitrate and cancer report mixed findings; a criticism is the use of nitrate concentrations from retrospective drinking water data to assign exposure levels. Residential point-of-use nitrate data are scarce; gaps in historical data for municipal supply finished water hamper exposure classification efforts. We used generalized linear regression models to estimate and compare historical raw water and finished water nitrate levels (1960s--1990s) in single source Iowa municipal supplies to determine whether raw water monitoring data could supplement finished water data to improve exposure assessment. Comparison of raw water and finished water samples (same sampling date) showed a significant difference in nitrate levels in municipalities using rivers; municipalities using other surface water or alluvial groundwater had no difference in nitrate levels. A regional aggregation of alluvial groundwater municipalities was constructed based on results from a previous study showing regional differences in nitrate contamination of private wells; results from this analysis were mixed, dependent upon region and decade. These analyses demonstrate using historical raw water nitrate monitoring data to supplement finished water data for exposure assessment is appropriate for individual Iowa municipal supplies using alluvial groundwater, lakes or reservoirs. Using alluvial raw water data on a regional basis is dependent on region and decade.     

An assessment of safety climate,job satisfaction and turnover intention relationships using a national sample of workers from the USA

The association between safety climate, job satisfaction and turnover intention has not been thoroughly researched. This research is needed so that safety researchers and practitioners can begin to delineate the impact of safety on organizational and business outcomes. A path analysis was completed using data from a national sample of workers from the USA (n?=?1525). The overall fit of the model was excellent and analyses determined that both training and resource adequacy positively affected safety climate and job satisfaction. Safety climate also positively influenced job satisfaction. Both safety climate and job satisfaction were negatively associated with respondents’ turnover intention. In the study, the relationship between job satisfaction and turnover intention is reiterated in a sample of workers across many industries. This study is novel because it is one of the first studies to confirm that turnover intention is reduced with increased safety climate in a diverse sample of workers.     

A review of regulations and guidelines related to winter manure application

Winter manure application elevates nutrient losses and impairment of water quality as compared to manure applications in other seasons. In conjunction with reviewing global distribution of animal densities, we reviewed worldwide mandatory regulations and voluntary guidelines on efforts to reduce off-site nutrient losses associated with winter manure applications. Most of the developed countries implement regulations or guidelines to restrict winter manure application, which range from a regulative ban to guidelines based upon weather and field management conditions. In contrast, developing countries lack such official directives, despite an increasing animal production industry and concern over water quality. An analysis of five case studies reveals that directives are derived from a common rationale to reduce off-site manure nutrient losses, but they are also affected by local socio-economic and biophysical considerations. Successful programs combine site-specific management strategies along with expansion of manure storage to offer farmers greater flexibility in winter manure management.     

Development of visibility forecasting modeling framework for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia using Canada’s Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System

Visibility degradation, one of the most noticeable indicators of poor air quality, can occur despite relatively low levels of particulate matter when the risk to human health is low. The availability of timely and reliable visibility forecasts can provide a more comprehensive understanding of the anticipated air quality conditions to better inform local jurisdictions and the public. This paper describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) for the Lower Fraser Valley of British Columbia. A baseline model (GM-IMPROVE) was constructed using the revised IMPROVE algorithm based on unprocessed forecasts from the RAQDPS. Three additional prototypes (UMOS-HYB, GM-MLR, GM-RF) were also developed and assessed for forecast performance of up to 48 hr lead time during various air quality and meteorological conditions. Forecast performance was assessed by examining their ability to provide both numerical and categorical forecasts in the form of 1-hr total extinction and Visual Air Quality Ratings (VAQR), respectively. While GM-IMPROVE generally overestimated extinction more than twofold, it had skill in forecasting the relative species contribution to visibility impairment, including ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate. Both statistical prototypes, GM-MLR and GM-RF, performed well in forecasting 1-hr extinction during daylight hours, with correlation coefficients (R) ranging from 0.59 to 0.77. UMOS-HYB, a prototype based on postprocessed air quality forecasts without additional statistical modeling, provided reasonable forecasts during most daylight hours. In terms of categorical forecasts, the best prototype was approximately 75 to 87% correct, when forecasting for a condensed three-category VAQR. A case study, focusing on a poor visual air quality yet low Air Quality Health Index episode, illustrated that the statistical prototypes were able to provide timely and skillful visibility forecasts with lead time up to 48 hr.

Implications: This study describes the development of a visibility forecasting modeling framework, which leverages the existing air quality and meteorological forecasts from Canada’s operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System. The main applications include tourism and recreation planning, input into air quality management programs, and educational outreach. Visibility forecasts, when supplemented with the existing air quality and health based forecasts, can assist jurisdictions to anticipate the visual air quality impacts as perceived by the public, which can potentially assist in formulating the appropriate air quality bulletins and recommendations.     

Deriving fuel-based emission factor thresholds to interpret heavy-duty vehicle roadside plume measurements

Remote sensing devices have been used for decades to measure gaseous emissions from individual vehicles at the roadside. Systems have also been developed that entrain diluted exhaust and can also measure particulate matter (PM) emissions. In 2015, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) reported that 8% of in-field diesel particulate filters (DPF) on heavy-duty (HD) vehicles were malfunctioning and emitted about 70% of total diesel PM emissions from the DPF-equipped fleet. A new high-emitter problem in the heavy-duty vehicle fleet had emerged. Roadside exhaust plume measurements reflect a snapshot of real-world operation, typically lasting several seconds. In order to relate roadside plume measurements to laboratory emission tests, we analyzed carbon dioxide (CO₂), oxides of nitrogen (NO_X), and PM emissions collected from four HD vehicles during several driving cycles on a chassis dynamometer. We examined the fuel-based emission factors corresponding to possible exceedances of emission standards as a function of vehicle power. Our analysis suggests that a typical HD vehicle will exceed the model year (MY) 2010 emission standards (of 0.2 g NO_X/bhp-hr and 0.01 g PM/bhp-hr) by three times when fuel-based emission factors are 9.3 g NO_X/kg fuel and 0.11 g PM/kg using the roadside plume measurement approach. Reported limits correspond to 99% confidence levels, which were calculated using the detection uncertainty of emissions analyzers, accuracy of vehicle power calculations, and actual emissions variability of fixed operational parameters. The PM threshold was determined for acceleration events between 0.47 and 1.4 mph/sec only, and the NO_X threshold was derived from measurements where after-treatment temperature was above 200°C. Anticipating a growing interest in real-world driving emissions, widespread implementation of roadside exhaust plume measurements as a compliment to in-use vehicle programs may benefit from expanding this analysis to a larger sample of in-use HD vehicles.

Implications: Regulatory agencies, civil society, and the public at large have a growing interest in vehicle emission compliance in the real world. Leveraging roadside plume measurements to identify vehicles with malfunctioning emission control systems is emerging as a viable new and useful method to assess in-use performance. This work proposes fuel-based emission factor thresholds for PM and NOx that signify exceedances of emission standards on a work-specific basis by analyzing real-time emissions in the laboratory. These thresholds could be used to prescreen vehicles before roadside enforcement inspection or other inquiry, enhance and further develop emission inventories, and potentially develop new requirements for heavy-duty inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs, including but not limited to identifying vehicles for further testing.     

Survey of polyfluorinated chemicals (PFCs) in the atmosphere over the northeast Atlantic Ocean

High volume air sampling in Bermuda, Sable Island (Nova Scotia) and along a cruise track from the Gulf of Mexico to northeast coast of the USA, was carried out to assess air concentrations, particle-gas partitioning and transport of polyfluorinated chemicals (PFCs) in this region. Samples were collected in the summer of 2007. Targeted compounds included the neutral PFCs: fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs), perfluoroalkyl sulfonamides (FOSAs) and perfluoroalkyl sulfonamido ethanols (FOSEs).Among the FTOHs, 8:2 FTOH was dominant in all samples. Sum of the concentration of FTOHs (gas+particle phase) were higher in Bermuda (mean, 34 pg m^?3) compared to Sable Island (mean, 16 pg m^?3). In cruise samples, sum of FTOHs were highly variable (mean, 81 pg m^?3) reflecting contributions from land-based sources in the northeast USA with concentrations reaching as high as 156 pg m^?3.Among the FOSAs and FOSEs, MeFOSE was dominant in all samples. In Bermuda, levels of MeFOSE were exceptionally high (mean, 62 pg m^?3), exceeding the FTOHs. Sable Island samples also exhibited the dominance of MeFOSE but at a lower concentration (mean, 15 pg m^?3). MeFOSE air concentrations (pg m^?3) in cruise samples ranged from 1.6 to 73 and were not linked to land-based sources. In fact high concentrations of MeFOSE observed in Bermuda were associated with air masses that originated over the Atlantic Ocean.The partitioning to particles for 8:2 FTOH, 10:2 FTOH, MeFOSE and EtFOSE ranged from as high as 15 to 42% for cruise samples to 0.9 to 14% in Bermuda. This study provides key information for validating and developing partitioning and transport models for the PFCs.     

Mercury in San Francisco Bay forage fish

In the San Francisco Estuary, management actions including tidal marsh restoration could change fish mercury (Hg) concentrations. From 2005 to 2007, small forage fish were collected and analyzed to identify spatial and interannual variation in biotic methylmercury (MeHg) exposure. The average whole body total Hg concentration was 0.052 μg g⁻¹ (wet-weight) for 457 composite samples representing 13 fish species. MeHg constituted 94% of total Hg. At a given length, Hg concentrations were higher in nearshore mudflat and wetland species (Clevelandia ios, Menidia audens, and Ilypnus gilberti), compared to species that move offshore (e.g., Atherinops affinis and Lepidogobius lepidus). Gut content analysis indicated similar diets between Atherinops affinis and Menidia audens, when sampled at the same locations. Hg concentrations were higher in sites closest to the Guadalupe River, which drains a watershed impacted by historic Hg mining. Results demonstrate that despite differences among years and fish species, nearshore forage fish exhibit consistent Hg spatial gradients.