A multiple additive regression tree analysis of three exposure measures during Hurricane Katrina

This paper analyses structural and personal exposure to Hurricane Katrina. Structural exposure is measured by flood height and building damage; personal exposure is measured by the locations of 911 calls made during the response. Using these variables, this paper characterises the geography of exposure and also demonstrates the utility of a robust analytical approach in understanding health‐related challenges to disadvantaged populations during recovery. Analysis is conducted using a contemporary statistical approach, a multiple additive regression tree (MART), which displays considerable improvement over traditional regression analysis. By using MART, the percentage of improvement in R‐squares over standard multiple linear regression ranges from about 62 to more than 100 per cent. The most revealing finding is the modelled verification that African Americans experienced disproportionate exposure in both structural and personal contexts. Given the impact of exposure to health outcomes, this finding has implications for understanding the long‐term health challenges facing this population.     

Subpopulation structure of caribou (Rangifer tarandus L.) in arctic and subarctic Canada

Effective management and conservation of species, subspecies, or ecotypes require an understanding of how populations are structured in space. We used satellite-tracking locations and hierarchical and fuzzy clustering to quantify subpopulations within the behaviorally different barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus), Dolphin and Union island caribou (R. t. groenlandicus x pearyi), and boreal (R. t. caribou) caribou ecotypes in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada. Using a novel approach, we verified that the previously recognized Cape Bathurst, Bluenose-West, Bluenose-East, Bathurst, Beverly, Qamanirjuaq, and Lorillard barren-ground subpopulations were robust and that the Queen Maude Gulf and Wager Bay barren-ground subpopulations were organized as individuals. Dolphin and Union island and boreal caribou formed one and two distinct subpopulation, respectively, and were organized as individuals. Robust subpopulations were structured by strong annual spatial affiliation among females; subpopulations organized as individuals were structured by migratory connectivity, barriers to movement, and/or habitat discontinuity. One barren-ground subpopulation used two calving grounds, and one calving ground was used by two barren-ground subpopulations, indicating that these caribou cannot be reliably assigned to subpopulations solely by calving-ground use. They should be classified by annual spatial affiliation among females. Annual-range size and path lengths varied significantly among ecotypes, including mountain woodland caribou (R. t. caribou), and reflected behavioral differences. An east-west cline in annual-range sizes and path lengths among migratory barren-ground subpopulations likely reflected differences in subpopulation size and habitat conditions and further supported the subpopulation structure identified.     

Estimating metabolic rate for butadiene at steady state using a Bayesian physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model

In a study of 133 volunteer subjects, demographic, physiologic and pharmacokinetic data through exposure to 1,3-Butadiene (BD) were collected in order to estimate the percentage of BD concentration metabolized at steady state, and to determine whether this percentage varies across gender, racial, and age groups. During the 20 min of continuous exposure to 2 parts per million (ppm) of BD, five measurements of exhaled concentration were made on each subject. In the following 40 min washout period, another five measurements were collected. A Bayesian hierarchical compartmental physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model (PKPB) was used. Using prior information on the model parameters, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation was conducted to obtain posterior distributions. The overall estimate of the mean percent of BD metabolized at steady state was 12.7% (95% credible interval: 7.7–17.8%). There was no significant difference in gender with males having a mean of 13.5%, and females 12.3%. Among the racial groups, Hispanic (13.9%), White (13.0%), Asian (12.1%), and Black (10.9%), the significant difference came from the difference between Black and Hispanic with a 95% credible interval from −5.63 to −0.30%. Those older than 30 years had a mean of 12.2% versus 12.9% for the younger group; although this was not a statistically significant difference. Given a constant inhalation input of 2 ppm, at steady state, the overall mean exhaled concentration was estimated to be 1.75ppm (95% credible interval: 1.64–1.84). An equivalent parameter, first-order metabolic rate constant, was also estimated and found to be consistent with the percent of BD metabolized at steady state across gender, race, and age strata.     

Terraced fields and Mediterranean landscape structure: An analytical case study from Antikythera, Greece

Terraces are important capital investments in a range of agricultural landscapes worldwide, typically enduring well beyond any single farming cycle and over many human generations. This paper begins by emphasising that, while human population growth may often be loosely linked to terrace construction efforts, the association is by no means a straightforward one. We then argue that the choice of which parts of the landscape to terrace is driven by a range of cultural and environmental priorities that are most usefully explored by a combination of global, local and auto-correlative modelling, as well as via simulation-based methods. The results demonstrate that surficial geology, terrain slope, pre-existing terraces and pre-existing patterns of human habitation are all important structuring features. We also consider terraces as method for soil conservation, question the uncritical use of meso-scale erosion models and argue that patterns of catastrophic soil loss are often overstated in Mediterranean contexts. However, erosion modelling can, if deployed cautiously and comparatively, nonetheless be used to explore ways in which terraces do indeed manage localised soil movement in agriculturally favoured parts of the landscape, with our results suggesting that a substantial proportion of the erosion in this regions is indeed ameliorated by such measures.     

Determining association networks in social animals: choosing spatial–temporal criteria and sampling rates

Social Network Analysis has become an important methodological tool for advancing our understanding of human and animal group behaviour. However, researchers tend to rely on arbitrary distance and time measures when defining ‘contacts’ or ‘associations’ between individuals based on preliminary observation. Otherwise, criteria are chosen on the basis of the communication range of sensor devices (e.g. bluetooth communication ranges) or the sampling frequencies of collection devices (e.g. Global Positioning System devices). Thus, researchers lack an established protocol for determining both relevant association distances and minimum sampling rates required to accurately represent the network structure under investigation. In this paper, we demonstrate how researchers can use experimental and statistical methods to establish spatial and temporal association patterns and thus correctly characterise social networks in both time and space. To do this, we first perform a mixing experiment with Merino sheep (Ovis aries) and use a community detection algorithm that allows us to identify the spatial and temporal distance at which we can best identify clusters of previously familiar sheep. This turns out to be within 2–3 m of each other for at least 3 min. We then calculate the network graph entropy rate—a measure of ease of spreading of information (e.g. a disease) in a network—to determine the minimum sampling rate required to capture the variability observed in our sheep networks during distinct activity phases. Our results indicate the need for sampling intervals of less than a minute apart. The tools that we employ are versatile and could be applied to a wide range of species and social network datasets, thus allowing an increase in both the accuracy and efficiency of data collection when exploring spatial association patterns in gregarious species.     

Individual- and condition-dependent effects on habitat choice and choosiness

Research on consistent individual differences in behavior, or “behavioral syndromes”, continues to grow rapidly, and yet, the aspects of behavior under consideration have remained remarkably limited. Here, we consider individual variation in consistency of choice (termed here “choosiness”), as expressed during habitat choice. We repeatedly tested the responses of female Western Black Widows, Latrodectus hesperus, to two cues of habitat quality: prey chemical cues and variation in web site illuminance. We estimated females’ response by the distance they positioned themselves from (1) the source of prey chemical cues and (2) the darkest edge of our test arena. Individuals with low variance in their responses are deemed more “choosy”, whereas individuals with high variance are deemed less “choosy”. Generally, most females initiated web construction near the source of the prey chemical cues and tended to place themselves in low-light conditions. However, we detected strong, repeatable differences in females’ intensity of response, and within-individual variance of response (i.e., choosiness) was correlated across situations: females with highly consistent responses towards cricket chemical cues also exhibited highly consistent responses towards variation in light conditions. When deprived of food for extended periods, females were indistinguishable in their responses towards prey chemical cues, but tended to initiate web construction in brighter lighting conditions. Food-deprived females universally exhibited higher variance and diminished consistency in their responses (i.e., they were less choosy). Additionally, higher choosiness was associated with greater mass loss during choice trials, suggesting choosiness is energetically costly. Our results demonstrate that consistency of response to environmental cues is yet another element of behavior that varies among individuals and variation in choosiness could beget speed/quality trade-offs during animal decision making.     

The Rise and Fall of a Second-Generation CBNRM Project in Zambia: Insights from a Project Perspective

Since the advent of community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) in the mid-1980s, scholars and practitioners have sought to explain the uneven performance of CBNRM programs. Most CBNRM assessments examine the underlying principles of community-based conservation, the local social and ecological contexts, and connections with larger political and historical patterns. In this article, I argue that analysis of the potential and pitfalls of CBNRM also requires an understanding of the institutional history and internal dynamics of projects that implement CBNRM reforms. Drawing upon theory and methods from development ethnography and public policy, I examine the rise and fall of CONASA, a second-generation CBNRM project in Zambia that operated from 2001 to 2004. CONASA was constituted from a merger of organizations and discourses to provide continuity with previous projects. Its ambitious suite of activities included support for household livelihoods, community-based resource management, policy analysis, advocacy, and conservation enterprises at local, national, and transboundary levels. While individual activities were largely successful, CONASA’s hybrid origins and logframe-centric management created fissures between its holistic design and operational logics, and hindered its ability to develop a broader narrative and maintain key alliances. This case study illustrates the importance of understanding the interplay between project design and operational context to fully appreciate the possibilities and limitations of project-mode conservation.     

Simulation and mathematical programming decision-making support for smallholder farming

Many mathematical programs have been developed over the past 50 years to aid agricultural experts and other farming decision-makers. The application of these mathematical programs has seen limited success because their development has focused on mathematical theory as opposed to the requirements needed for application. This paper describes the development of two mathematical programs that were designed to integrate with a visualization simulation that aids a nontraditional group of agricultural decision-makers: illiterate Sri Lankan subsistence farmers. The simulation was designed to help these illiterate farmers make business decisions about their crop selection choices which, in turn, will help them develop their business plans required for obtaining bank micro-loans. This paper’s focus is on the use of linear programming as a potential tool to demonstrate the benefits of crop diversification and rotation to the farmer based on various available crop types. It also highlights the issues using such an approach.     

Theory of storage,inventory and volatility in the LME base metals

The theory of storage, as related to commodities, makes two predictions involving the quantity of the commodity held in inventory. When inventory is low (i.e. a situation of scarcity), spot prices will exceed futures prices, and spot price volatility will exceed futures price volatility. Conversely, during periods of no scarcity, both spot prices and spot price volatility will remain relatively subdued. We test these predictions for the six base metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc), and find strong validation for the theory. Including Chinese inventories reported by the Shanghai Futures Exchange strengthens the relationship further. We also introduce the concepts of excess volatility, inventory-implied spot price and inventory-implied spot volatility and illustrate some applications.     

Issues in extractive resource taxation: A review of research methods and models

This paper provides a conceptual overview of economists′ attempts to learn about the effects of taxes on extractive resources. The emphasis is on research methods and techniques, with no attempt to provide a comprehensive tabulation of previous empirical results or policy conclusions regarding preferred tax instruments or systems. We argue, in fact, that the nature of such conclusions largely depends on, and is limited by, the researcher′s choice of modeling framework. Many alternative frameworks and approaches have been developed in the literature. Our goal is to describe the differences among them and to note their strengths and limitations.