Slope,aspect and climate: Spatially explicit and implicit models of topographic microclimate in chalk grassland

The slope and aspect of a vegetated surface strongly affects the amount of solar radiation intercepted by that surface. Solar radiation is the dominant component of the surface energy balance and influences ecologically critical factors of microclimate, including near-surface temperatures, evaporative demand and soil moisture content. It also determines the exposure of vegetation to photosynthetically active and ultra-violet wavelengths. Spatial variation in slope and aspect is therefore a key determinant of vegetation pattern, species distribution and ecosystem processes in many environments. Slope and aspect angle may vary considerably over distances of a few metres, and fine-scale species’ distribution patterns frequently follow these topographic patterns. The availability of suitable microclimate at such scales may be critical for the response of species distributions to climatic change at much larger spatial scales. However, quantifying the relevant microclimatic gradients is not straightforward, as the potential variation in solar radiation flux under clear-sky conditions is modified by local and regional variations in cloud cover, and interacts with long-wave radiation exchange, local meteorology and surface characteristics.     

A Bayesian approach to multi-source forest area estimation

In efforts such as land use change monitoring, carbon budgeting, and forecasting ecological conditions and timber supply, there is increasing demand for regional and national data layers depicting forest cover. These data layers must permit small area estimates of forest area and, most importantly, provide associated error estimates. This paper presents a model-based approach for coupling mid-resolution satellite imagery with plot-based forest inventory data to produce estimates of probability of forest and associated error at the pixel-level. The proposed Bayesian hierarchical model provides access to each pixel’s posterior predictive distribution allowing for a highly flexible analysis of pixel and multi-pixel areas of interest. The paper presents a trial using multiple dates of Landsat imagery and USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data. The results describe the spatial dependence structure within the trial site, provide pixel and multi-pixel summaries of probability of forest land use, and explore discretization schemes of the posterior predictive distributions to forest and non-forest classes. Model prediction results of a holdout set analysis suggest the proposed model provides high classification accuracy, 88%, for the trial site.

Trophic structure of coastal Antarctic food webs associated with changes in sea ice and food supply

Predicting the dynamics of ecosystems requires an understanding of how trophic interactions respond to environmental change. In Antarctic marine ecosystems, food web dynamics are inextricably linked to sea ice conditions that affect the nature and magnitude of primary food sources available to higher trophic levels. Recent attention on the changing sea ice conditions in polar seas highlights the need to better understand how marine food webs respond to changes in such broad-scale environmental drivers. This study investigated the importance of sea ice and advected primary food sources to the structure of benthic food webs in coastal Antarctica. We compared the isotopic composition of several seafloor taxa (including primary producers and invertebrates with a variety of feeding modes) that are widely distributed in the Antarctic. We assessed shifts in the trophic role of numerically dominant benthic omnivores at five coastal Ross Sea locations. These locations vary in primary productivity and food availability, due to their different levels of sea ice cover, and proximity to polynyas and advected primary production. The delta15N signatures and isotope mixing model results for the bivalves Laternula elliptica and Adamussium colbecki and the urchin Sterechinus neumeyeri indicate a shift from consumption of a higher proportion of detritus at locations with more permanent sea ice in the south to more freshly produced algal material associated with proximity to ice-free water in the north and east. The detrital pathways utilized by many benthic species may act to dampen the impacts of large seasonal fluctuations in the availability of primary production. The limiting relationship between sea ice distribution and in situ primary productivity emphasizes the role of connectivity and spatial subsidies of organic matter in fueling the food web. Our results begin to provide a basis for predicting how benthic ecosystems will respond to changes in sea ice persistence and extent along environmental gradients in the high Antarctic.     

The inflationary effects of environmental fluctuations ensure the persistence of sink metapopulations

Under current rates of environmental change many populations may be found in habitats of low quality and low conservation value, creating population sinks. We test recent theory that suggests, surprisingly, that stochastic environmental variability may enhance the long-term persistence of sink metapopulations. Using experimental populations of Paramecium aurelia we show that it is possible for a metapopulation comprised entirely of sink populations to persist for many generations in a random environment. In accordance with the theory, we show that positive temporal autocorrelation and low spatial correlation in the environment can ensure the long-term persistence and enhance the mean and maximum abundance of sink metapopulations. High levels of spatial correlation in the environment created strong population synchrony and limited the persistence time of the sink metapopulations. These results have important implications for the development of a theory underlying the synergistic effects of habitat fragmentation and environmental change on population persistence.     

State subsidies induce gray jays to accept greater danger: an ecologically rational response?

Models of strictly rational choice assume that decision-makers evaluate options on relevant dimensions, assign fixed values to options, and then make consistent choices based on these values. If so, recent experience would have no impact on preference. But, recent events change an animal’s state, and preference may change accordingly. We explore how state affects willingness to accept greater danger to obtain larger food rewards. We tested how a supplement in state (hoard size) impacts this willingness in gray jays (Perisoreus canadensis). When subsidized, most of the subjects increased their willingness to trade danger for food. Why would they become less cautious when their hoard was increased? Superficially, it might seem prudent to play it safer in response to a subsidy. But imagining fitness as a sigmoid function of state (hoard size) provides a tentative explanation for our counterintuitive finding. Above a threshold hoard size, a subsidy should weaken the willingness to accept extra danger. Incremental increases in state in the deceleratory phase yield smaller fitness gains, so it would pay to increase emphasis on safety after receiving a subsidy. But below this threshold, incremental increases in state in the acceleratory phase yield bigger fitness gains, and so it would pay to decrease emphasis on safety after receiving a subsidy. Most of our subjects’ choice behavior was, thus, plausibly consistent with the possibility that effective hoard size is considerably smaller than the total number of items stored. We speculate that this response may reflect an ecologically rational compensation for the inevitable loss of hoards via theft and rot.     

The dynamics of arsenic in four paddy fields in the Bengal delta

Irrigation with arsenic contaminated groundwater in the Bengal Delta may lead to As accumulation in the soil and rice grain. The dynamics of As concentration and speciation in paddy fields during dry season (boro) rice cultivation were investigated at 4 sites in Bangladesh and West Bengal, India. Three sites which were irrigated with high As groundwater had elevated As concentrations in the soils, showing a significant gradient from the irrigation inlet across the field. Arsenic concentration and speciation in soil pore water varied temporally and spatially; higher As concentrations were associated with an increasing percentage of arsenite, indicating a reductive mobilization. Concentrations of As in rice grain varied by 2-7 fold within individual fields and were poorly related with the soil As concentration. A field site employing alternating flooded-dry irrigation produced the lowest range of grain As concentration, suggesting a lower soil As availability caused by periodic aerobic conditions.     

Evaluation of diffusive gradients in thin film (DGT) samplers for measuring contaminants in the Antarctic marine environment

This work has been the first application of DGT samplers for measuring metals in water and sediment porewater in the Antarctic environment, and whilst DGT water sampling was restricted to quantification of Cd, Fe and Ni, preconcentration using Empore chelating disks provided results for an additional nine elements (Sn, Pb, Al, Cr, Mn, Co, Cu, Zn, As). Although higher concentrations were measured for some metals (Cd, Ni, Pb) using the Empore technique, most likely due to particulate-bound or colloidal species becoming entrapped in the Empore chelating disks, heavy metal concentrations in the impacted Brown Bay were found to be comparable with the non-impacted O'Brien Bay. Sediment porewater sampling using DGT also indicated little difference between Brown Bay and O'Brien Bay for many metals (Cd, Al, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu), however, greater amounts of Pb, Mn, Fe and As were accumulated in DGT probes deployed in Brown Bay compared with O'Brien Bay, and a higher accumulation of Sn was observed in Brown Bay inner than any of the other three sites sampled. Comparison of DGT derived porewater concentrations with actual porewater concentrations showed limited resupply of Cd, Pb, Al, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn and As from the solid phase to porewater, with these metals appearing to be strongly bound to the sediment, however, resupply of Fe and Sn was apparent. Based upon our observations here, we suggest that Sn, and to a lesser extent Pb, are critical contaminants.     

The global re-cycling of persistent organic pollutants is strongly retarded by soils

'Persistent organic pollutants' (POPs) are semi-volatile, mobile in the environment and bioaccumulate. Their toxicity and propensity for long-range atmospheric transport (LRAT) has led to international bans/restrictions on their use/release. LRAT of POPs may occur by a 'single hop' or repeated temperature-driven air-surface exchange. It has been hypothesised that this will result in global fractionation and distillation-with condensation and accumulation in polar regions. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)--industrial chemicals banned/restricted in the 1970s--provide a classic illustration of POP behaviour. A latitudinally-segmented global PCB inventory has been produced, which shows that approximately 86% of the 1.3 x 10(6) tonnes produced was used in the temperate industrial zone of the northern hemisphere. A global survey of background surface soils gives evidence for 'fractionation' of PCBs. More significantly, however, very little of the total inventory has 'made the journey' via primary emission and/or air-surface exchange and LRAT out of the heavily populated source regions, in the 70 years since PCBs were first produced. Soils generally occlude PCBs, especially soils with dynamic turnover of C/bioturbation/burial mechanisms. This limits the fraction of PCBs available for repeated air-soil exchange. The forested soils of the northern hemisphere, and other C-rich soils, appear to be playing an important role in 'protecting' the Arctic from the advective supply of POPs. Whilst investigations on POPs in remote environments are important, it is imperative that researchers also seek to better understand their release from sources, persistence in source regions, and the significant loss mechanisms/global sinks of these compounds, if they wish to predict future trends.     

Multi-factors influencing the spatial distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils surrounding drinking water protection zone

We selected the Guanting Reservoir in Beijing, China as a case where an industrial area locates on the upwind corner to study the influence of human activities and natural processes on the distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soils. Soil PAH concentrations in the study area follow a log-normal probability distribution function, suggesting that distribution of PAH in soils was affected by human activities. Distribution of PAHs in soils was significantly affected by the point source that high PAH concentrations were observed in near industrial area with an obvious declining trend from the northwest to the southeast which was the prevailing wind direction in this area. Away from the influence of point source, distribution of PAHs in soils was found to significantly correlate with total organic carbon content, while the influences of agricultural land uses and type of soil texture on the total soil PAHs contents and ring compositions were quite limited. The results can provide some evidences and data on the pollutant accumulation in drink water protection area influenced by natural processes and human activities.     

A Quantitative Tool for Assessing the Integrity of Southern Coastal California Streams

We developed a benthic macroinvertebrate index of biological integrity (B-IBI) for the semiarid and populous southern California coastal region. Potential reference sites were screened from a pool of 275 sites, first with quantitative GIS landscape analysis at several spatial scales and then with local condition assessments (in-stream and riparian) that quantified stressors acting on study reaches. We screened 61 candidate metrics for inclusion in the B-IBI based on three criteria: sufficient range for scoring, responsiveness to watershed and reach-scale disturbance gradients, and minimal correlation with other responsive metrics. Final metrics included: percent collector-gatherer + collector-filterer individuals, percent noninsect taxa, percent tolerant taxa, Coleoptera richness, predator richness, percent intolerant individuals, and EPT richness. Three metrics had lower scores in chaparral reference sites than in mountain reference sites and were scored on separate scales in the B-IBI. Metrics were scored and assembled into a composite B-IBI, which was then divided into five roughly equal condition categories. PCA analysis was used to demonstrate that the B-IBI was sensitive to composite stressor gradients; we also confirmed that the B-IBI scores were not correlated with elevation, season, or watershed area. Application of the B-IBI to an independent validation dataset (69 sites) produced results congruent with the development dataset and a separate repeatability study at four sites in the region confirmed that the B-IBI scoring is precise. The SoCal B-IBI is an effective tool with strong performance characteristics and provides a practical means of evaluating biotic condition of streams in southern coastal California.