Losses from effluent taxes and quotas under uncertainty

Recent theoretical papers by Adar and Griffin (J. Environ. Econ. Manag.3, 178–188 (1976)), Fishelson (J. Environ. Econ. Manag.3, 189–197 (1976)), and Weitzman (Rev. Econ. Studies41, 477–491 (1974)) show that,different expected social losses arise from using effluent taxes and quotas as alternative control instruments when marginal control costs are uncertain. Key assumptions in these analyses are linear marginal cost and benefit functions and an additive error for the marginal cost function (to reflect uncertainty). In this paper, empirically derived nonlinear functions and more realistic multiplicative error terms are used to estimate expected control and damage costs and to identify (empirically) the mix of control instruments that minimizes expected losses.     

Does Soil Carbon Loss in Biomass Production Systems Negate the Greenhouse Benefits of Bioenergy?

Interest in bioenergy is growing across the Western world in response to mounting concerns about climate change. There is a risk of depletion of soil carbon stocks in biomass production systems, because a higher proportion of the organic matter and nutrients are removed from the site, compared with conventional agricultural and forestry systems. This paper reviews the factors that influence soil carbon dynamics in bioenergy systems, and utilises the model FullCAM to investigate the likely magnitude of soil carbon change where bioenergy systems replace conventional land uses. Environmental and management factors govern the magnitude and direction of change. Soil C losses are most likely where soil C is initially high, such as where improved pasture is converted to biomass production. Bioenergy systems are likely to enhance soil C where these replace conventional cropping, as intensively cropped soils are generally depleted in soil C. Measures that enhance soil C include maintenance of productivity through application of fertilisers, inclusion of legumes, and retention of nutrient-rich foliage on-site. Modelling results demonstrate that loss of soil carbon in bioenergy systems is associated with declines in the resistant plant matter and humified soil C pools. However, published experimental data and modelling results indicate that total soil C loss in bioenergy systems is generally small. Thus, although there may be some decline in soil carbon associated with biomass production, this is negligible in comparison with the contribution of bioenergy systems towards greenhouse mitigation through avoided fossil fuel emissions.     

Influence of organic ley–arable management and afforestation in sandy loam to clay loam soils on fluxes of N2O and CH4 in Scotland

Assessment of the sustainability of alternatives to conventional uses of agricultural land, viz. organic systems and afforestation should include consideration of any effects on trace gas budgets. Nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄) fluxes and controlling soil properties were measured in an organic ley–arable rotation in north-east Scotland on a sandy loam. N₂O fluxes were monitored in the ley and arable phases and in organic permanent grass (Lolium perenne) located nearby throughout the 3-year phase duration. Gas fluxes in woodland that had been converted from arable for 1 or 6 years were also measured in both north-east and south-east Scotland on sandy loam to clay loam soils. The climate is maritime and variable with annual rainfall between 800 and 900 mm. Within the organic rotation, differences in N₂O fluxes between the ley and arable phases were less marked than in conventional agriculture. Although this was mainly because grassland emissions were low, some losses from the arable component were also relatively high. Seasonal rainfall had a major influence on cumulative emissions of N₂O, including the first year after conversion from ley to arable. In the short term, changing land use from arable to woodland increased CH₄ oxidation rates and decreased N₂O emissions, though both these rates were also influenced by seasonal weather. Afforestation of agricultural land appears to be more beneficial to trace gas exchange than conversion to organic production.     

Seasonal and spatial variation of solvent extractable organic compounds in fine suspended particulate matter in Hong Kong

The results of a 12-month study of more than 100 solvent extractable organic compounds (SEOC) in particulate matter (PM) less than or equal to 2.5 microm (PM2.5) collected at three air monitoring stations located at roadside, urban, and rural sites in Hong Kong are reported. The total yield of SEOC that accounts for approximately 8-18% of organic carbon (OC) determined by a thermal optical transmittance method was 125-2060 ng/m3, which included 14.6-128 ng/m3 resolved aliphatic hydrocarbons, 39.4-1380 ng/m3 unresolved complex mixtures, 0.6-17.2 ng/m3 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, 41.6-520 ng/m3 fatty acids, and < 0.1-12.1 ng/m3 alkanols. Distinct seasonal variations (summer/winter differences) were observed with higher concentrations of the total and each class of SEOC in the winter and lower concentrations in the summer. Spatial variations are also obvious, with the roadside samples having the highest concentrations of SEOC and the rural samples having the lowest concentrations in all seasons. Characteristic ratios of petroleum hydrocarbons, such as carbon preference index, unresolved to resolved components, and carbon number with maximum concentration, suggest that PM2.5 carbon in Hong Kong originates from both biogenic and anthropogenic sources. The proportion of SEOC in PM2.5 from anthropogenic sources is estimated.     

Impact of biogenic terpene emissions from <Emphasis Type="Italic">Brassica napus</Emphasis> on tropospheric ozone over saxony (Germany)

INTRODUCTION: The role of biogenic emissions in tropospheric ozone production is currently under discussion and major aspects are not well understood yet. This study aims towards the estimation of the influence of biogenic emissions on tropospheric ozone concentrations over Saxony in general and of biogenic emissions from brassica napus in special. MODELLING TOOLS: The studies are performed by utilizing a coupled numerical modelling system consisting of the meteorological model METRAS and the chemistry transport model MUSCAT. For the chemical part, the Euro-RADM algorithm is used. EMISSIONS: Anthropogenic and biogenic emissions are taken into account. The anthropogenic emissions are introduced by an emission inventory. Biogenic emissions, VOC and NO, are calculated within the chemical transport model MUSCAT at each time step and in each grid cell depending on land use type and on the temperature. The emissions of hydrocarbons from forest areas as well as biogenic NO especially from agricultural grounds are considered. Also terpene emissions from brassica napus fields are estimated. SIMULATION SETUP AND METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS: The simulations were performed over an area with an extension of 160 x 140 km2 which covers the main parts of Saxony and neighboring areas of Brandenburg, Sachsen-Anhalt and Thuringia. Summer smog with high ozone concentrations can be expected during high pressure conditions on hot summer days. Typical meteorological conditions for such cases were introduced in an conceptual way. RESULTS: It is estimated that biogenic emissions change tropospheric ozone concentrations in a noticeable way (up to 15% to 20%) and, therefore, should not be neglected in studies about tropospheric ozone. Emissions from brassica napus do have a moderate potential to enhance tropospheric ozone concentrations, but emissions are still under consideration and, therefore, results vary to a high degree. CONCLUSIONS: Summing up, the effect of brassica napus terpene emissions on ozone concentrations is noticeable, but not too pronounced. The results give a preliminary estimate on what the effect due to brassica napus emissions could be until better parameterizations can be derived from measurements.     

Removal process estimation of population size for a population with a known sex ratio

A removal model for estimating population size which uses the known population sex ratio is studied. A maximum likelihood estimate and an optimal martingale estimate of the population size are proposed. Their standard errors and large sample properties are obtained. Simulation studies are reported, and the performance of the proposed estimators are compared with the standard maximum likelihood estimator which ignores the sex ratio information. An example on a capture study of deer mice is given.     

Assessment of prey vulnerability through analysis of wolf movements and kill sites.

Within predator-prey systems behavior can heavily influence spatial dynamics, and accordingly, the theoretical study of how spatial dynamics relate to stability within these systems has a rich history. However, our understanding of these behaviors in large mammalian systems is poorly developed. To address the relationship between predator selection patterns, prey density, and prey vulnerability, we quantified selection patterns for two fine-scale behaviors of a recovering wolf (Canis lupus) population in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA. Wolf spatial data were collected between November and May from 1998-1999 until 2001-2002. Over four winters, 244 aerial locations, 522 ground-based telemetry locations, 1287 km of movement data from snow tracking, and the locations of 279 wolf kill sites were recorded. There was evidence that elk (Cervus elaphus) and bison (Bison bison) densities had a weak effect on the sites where wolves traveled and made kills. Wolf movements showed a strong selection for geothermal areas, meadows, and areas near various types of habitat edges. Proximity to edge and habitat class also had a strong influence on the locations where elk were most vulnerable to predation. There was little evidence that wolf kill sites differed from the places where wolves traveled, indicating that elk vulnerability influenced where wolves selected to travel. Our results indicate that elk are more vulnerable to wolves under certain conditions and that wolves are capable of selecting for these conditions. As such, vulnerability plays a central role in predator-prey behavioral games and can potentially impact the systems to which they relate.     

Fueling global fishing fleets

Over the course of the 20th century, fossil fuels became the dominant energy input to most of the world's fisheries. Although various analyses have quantified fuel inputs to individual fisheries, to date, no attempt has been made to quantify the global scale and to map the distribution of fuel consumed by fisheries. By integrating data representing more than 250 fisheries from around the world with spatially resolved catch statistics for 2000, we calculate that globally, fisheries burned almost 50 billion L of fuel in the process of landing just over 80 million t of marine fish and invertebrates for an average rate of 620 L t(-1). Consequently, fisheries account for about 1.2% of global oil consumption, an amount equivalent to that burned by the Netherlands, the 18th-ranked oil consuming country globally, and directly emit more than 130 million t of CO2 into the atmosphere. From an efficiency perspective, the energy content of the fuel burned by global fisheries is 12.5 times greater than the edible-protein energy content of the resulting catch.