Analysis of Extreme Summer Rainfall Using Climate Teleconnections and Typhoon Characteristics in South Korea1

Abstract: It is now widely acknowledged that climate variability modulates the frequency of extreme hydrological events. Traditional methodologies for hydrologic frequency analysis are not devised to account for variation in the exogenous teleconnections. Flood frequency analysis is further plagued by the assumptions of stationary in the causal structure as well as ergodicity. Here, we propose a dynamical hierarchical Bayesian analysis to account for exogenous forcing that govern the summer season rainfall. The precursors for Korean summer rainfall at different frequencies are identified utilizing wavelet and independent component analyses. The sea surface temperatures, the ensemble of rainfall predictions by General Circulation Model, in addition to the typhoon attributes were found to have direct correlation with extreme rainfall events and were used as inputs to the logistic regression model. The model parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and the resulting posterior distributions associated with individual inputs are analyzed to advance our understanding of the spatiotemporal impact of the teleconnections. Eight rainfall stations throughout Korea are considered in this analysis. We demonstrate that the probability of occurrence of extreme events could be successfully projected at a 90% rate of correct classification of extreme events.     

Fecal Coliform Export From Four Coastal North Carolina Areas1

Abstract: Fecal coliform (FC) bacteria in coastal waters impair the use of these waters for shellfish harvesting and recreation. This study was designed to quantify and compare FC levels and export in two coastal watersheds with different land uses. Continuous monitoring of rainfall and discharge at three sites in the Jumping Run Creek watershed and one site in the Pettiford Creek watershed were conducted during a 4.5‐year period. Primary land use in the drainage area of one of the three Jumping Run Creek sites is low density industrial, while the other two are residential. Land use in the Pettiford Creek watershed is managed national forest. Nonstorm or base‐flow grab and flow‐proportional storm‐event samples were collected and analyzed for turbidity, conductivity, suspended sediment, nitrogen, phosphorus, and FC. Geometric mean FC levels for the Jumping Run Creek monitoring sites ranged from 593 to 2,096 mpn/100 ml, while the mean level at the Pettiford Creek site was 191 mpn/100 ml. Levels of most other parameters were greater in storm discharge from the Jumping Run Creek sites as compared to Pettiford Creek indicating that pollutant export from a watershed increases with development. Statistical analysis of the monitoring data suggested that FC levels in stormwater samples consistently increased with storm rainfall, but were not consistently correlated with any other parameter, including total suspended solids. Multivariate analysis indicated that the weekly FC export for each of the four sites was lowest during the December‐February quarter. Export was highest during the spring and summer at the Jumping Run Creek sites, while for the Pettiford Creek site, FC export was highest during September‐November. The cause of the seasonal variability was unknown but was thought to be associated with human activity in the watersheds.     

Modes of Variability of Annual and Seasonal Rainfall in Mexico

The aim of this study is to identify temporal and spatial variability patterns of annual and seasonal rainfall in Mexico. A set of 769 weather stations located in Mexico was examined. The country was divided into 12 homogeneous rainfall regions via principal component analysis. A Pettitt test was conducted to perform a homogeneity analysis for detecting abrupt changes in mean rainfall levels, and a Mann‐Kendall test was conducted to examine the presence of monotonically increasing/decreasing patterns in the data. In total, 14.4% of the annual series was deemed nonstationary. Fourteen percent of the samples were nonstationary in the winter and summer, and 9% were nonstationary in the spring and autumn. According to the results, the nonstationarity of some seasonal rainfall series may be associated with the presence of atmospheric phenomena (e.g., El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation). A rainfall frequency analysis was performed for the nonstationary annual series, and significant differences in the return levels can be expected for the scenarios analyzed. The identification of areas that are more susceptible to changes in rainfall levels will improve water resource management plans in the country, and it is expected that these plans will take into account nonstationary theory.     

Beyond men and women: a critical perspective on gender and disaster

Consideration of gender in the disaster sphere has centred almost exclusively on the vulnerability and capacities of women. This trend stems from a polarised Western understanding of gender as a binary concept of man—woman. Such an approach also mirrors the dominant framing of disasters and disaster risk reduction (DRR), emphasising Western standards and practices to the detriment of local, non‐Western identities and experiences. This paper argues that the man—woman dichotomy is an insufficient construct with which to address the gendered dimensions of a disaster as it fails to capture the realities of diverse gender minorities in non‐Western contexts. The paper presents case studies from the Philippines, Indonesia, and Samoa, where gender minorities display specific patterns of vulnerability associated with their marginal positions in society, yet, importantly, also possess a wide array of endogenous capacities. Recognition of these differences, needs, skills, and unique resources is essential to moving towards inclusive and gender‐sensitive DRR.     

Crop biodiversity,productivity and production risk: Panel data micro‐evidence from Ethiopia

This paper uses data from the Central Highlands of Ethiopia to assess the productivity and production risk impacts of crop diversification. Using count index as a measure of crop biodiversity, results show that increasing crop biodiversity contributes positively to farm level productivity. In addition, the findings suggest that the level of production risk significantly responds to the level of diversity, with the effect highly conditional on the skewness. The major contribution of the paper is that, unlike previous similar studies that tended to focus on intra‐crop diversity, it incorporates the mutual interdependencies across crops within a farm by focusing on inter‐crop diversity. Hence the study adds to the growing empirical literature, particularly in Africa, that tests empirical relationships between productivity, risk and crop diversity. An important policy implication for a diversity rich country such as Ethiopia is that agro‐biodiversity can be used to improve agricultural productivity while promoting in situ conservation.     

A disaggregated emissions inventory for Taiwan with uses in hybrid input‐output life cycle analysis (IO‐LCA)

This paper reports on a life‐cycle analysis (LCA) of Taiwan's “agriculture and forestry”, “crude petroleum, coal and natural gas extraction” and “electricity generation” sectors, revealing for the first time Taiwan's CO₂ and CH₄ emissions inventories and matching Taiwan's input‐output sectors. Integrated hybrid input‐output life cycle analysis is used to disaggregate the electricity generation sector into nuclear, hydro, gas, oil and coal, and cogeneration. Results show that the fossil‐fuel‐related electricity sub‐sectors have higher CO₂ emissions intensity than the remaining sectors in the economy and that the “paddy rice” sector is Taiwan's most CH₄‐intensive sector, making rice cultivation an important source of CH₄ emissions. This work is vital to sound policy decisions concerning power generation, coal, and agriculture and forestry at the national level.     

Land rights in Darfur: Institutional flexibility,policy and adaptation to environmental change

With environmental change set to affect the developing world in significant ways, examination of the process of adaptation is increasingly being brought to the fore. Common to all forms of adaptation in rural livelihoods will be a process of change in resource use and the resource rights that will either facilitate or subvert adaptation. This paper looks at Darfur and the repercussions from the multi‐year drought and land degradation that led to forms of adaptation that involved change in relationships between groups over land resources. The analysis looks at how changes in land resource rights relationships have been dealt with historically, as adaptation developed. Approaches involving highly flexible customary institutions were used to effectively manage the change in land resource rights relationships inherent in adaptation, and considerable opportunity existed for positive interaction between customary and statutory law. Initial success at adaptation was followed by interventions by the Sudanese government to manage these relationships for specific objectives that worked against adaptation. This resulted in competition, animosity, confrontation and the subsequent collapse of the institutions, legitimacy, and trust necessary for successful management of land resource rights change. These national policies debilitated the adaptation opportunities and instead led to profoundly negative repercussions in relationships about land in Darfur, eventually becoming a primary driver in the current war. This highlights both the importance of land resource rights relationships to adaptation and how these relationships can be changed (positively and negatively) by specific practices and policies.     

Techniques for High-Quality Ambient Coarse Particle Mass Measurements

ABSTRACT

Several recent studies have shown associations between ambient concentrations of particle mass (PM) and rates of morbidity and mortality in the general population. These studies have raised the issue of quality of coarse mass (CM, PM between 2.5 and 10 µm) data used for these purposes. CM data may have precision three or more times worse than the associated PM _2.5 or PM₁₀ data, depending on the measurement method, PM _2.5 to PM ₁₀ ratios, and CM concentrations. CM is measured either as the difference between collocated _PM10 and _PM2.5 samplers or more directly with a dichotomous (virtual impactor) sampler. CM precision for the difference method is degraded due to the increased errors inherent with using the difference between two independent measurements, as well as the high PM_2.5 to PM₁₀ ratios (and low CM concentrations) typical of the eastern United States. The dichotomous sampler (dichot) makes a more direct measurement of CM, but there is a potential for significant postexposure loss of particles from unoiled CM dichot filters, as well as uncertainties in the dichot’s CM channel enrichment factor. Compared to the dichot, low-volume inertial impactor samplers such as the Harvard Impactor (HI) or PM2.5 Federal Reference Method (FRM) are simpler to operate and maintain, provide sharper cut points, and do not require oiled filters to prevent loss of CM from the filter during transport. With the recent interest in CM spatial and temporal variability with respect to PM health effects, we have developed modifications to the HI PM method to provide measurements of 24-hour PM with estimated CM precision of better than 5% CV and r² higher than 0.95, primarily by lowering field blank variability and increasing gravimetric analytical precision. These high-precision PM techniques are not limited to the HI sampler; they can also be applied to the _PM2.5 FRM sampler. The measurement methods described here can be applied to future PM studies to avoid the potential problems with exposure assessment caused by CM measurements that have poor precision.     

Utilization of long duration high-volume sampling coupled to SPME-GC-MS/MS for the assessment of airborne pesticides variability in an urban area (Strasbourg,France) during agricultural application

Atmospheric samples have been collected between 14 March and 12 September 2012 on a 2-week basis (15 days of sampling and exchange of traps each 7 days) in Strasbourg (east of France) for the analysis of 43 pesticides. Samples (particle and gas phases) were separately extracted using Accelerated Solvent Extraction (ASE) and pre-concentrated by Solid Phase Micro-Extraction (SPME) before analysis by gas chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS). Four SPME consecutive injections at distinct temperatures were made in order to increase the sensitivity of detection for the all monitored pesticides. Currently used detected pesticides can be grouped in four classes; those used in maize crops (acetochlor, benoxacor, dicamba, s-metolachlor, pendimethalin, and bromoxynil), in cereal crops (benoxacor, chlorothalonil, fenpropimorph, and propiconazole), in vineyards (tebuconazole), and as herbicides for orchards, meadows of green spaces (2,4-MCPA, trichlopyr). This is in accordance with the diversity of crops found in the Alsace region and trends observed are in accordance with the period of application of these pesticides. Variations observed permit also to demonstrate that the long time sampling duration used in this study is efficient to visualize temporal variations of airborne pesticides concentrations. Then, long time high-volume sampling could be a simple method permitting atmospheric survey of atmospheric contamination without any long analysis time and consequently low cost.     

Analytic Modeling of Rainwater Harvesting in the Brazilian Semiarid Northeast

During the past two decades, government efforts to provide water access to rural communities in Brazil's semiarid Northeast region have focused on building systems to capture and store rainwater, most importantly through the One Million Cisterns Program (P1MC). This article presents an analytic model based on daily precipitation data to evaluate the sustainability of rainwater capture. Application of this model to analysis of the P1MC reveals the heterogeneous climate in this region causes large spatial variability in the effectiveness of this program. In addition, the size of the area of capture, the run‐off coefficient of the roofs, and the amount of first‐flush diversion also have important effects. This analysis demonstrates while rainwater capture can offer sufficient water for drinking, as a stand‐alone solution it cannot meet P1MC objectives of guaranteeing sustainable and universal access to water for drinking, cooking, and basic hygiene in all regions and years.