Modelling gas release event behaviour in hazardous waste tanks

Certain radioactive waste storage tanks at the United States Department of Energy Hanford facilities continuously generate gases as a result of radiolysis and chemical reactions. The congealed sludge in these tanks traps the gases beneath it and causes the level of the waste within the tanks to rise. The waste level continues to rise until the sludge loses its buoyancy and rolls over, changing places with fluid on top. During a rollover, the trapped gases are released, resulting in a sudden drop in the waste level. This is known as a gas release event (GRE). After a GRE, the waste re-congeals and gas again accumulates, leading to another GRE. We are interested in the time between consecutive GREs. Understanding the probabilistic behaviour of the time between consecutive GREs is important because the hydrogen and nitrous oxide gases released during a GRE are flammable and the ammonia that is released is a health risk. From a safety perspective, activity around such waste tanks should be halted when a GRE is imminent. With a credible probability model for the time between consecutive GREs, we can establish time windows in which waste tank research and maintenance activities can be safely performed. We discuss the application of non-linear time series models to this problem.     

Probability distributions and statistical inference for axial data

Observations on axes which lack information on the direction of propagation are referred to as axial data. Such data are often encountered in enviromental sciences, e.g. observations on propagations of cracks or on faults in mining walls. Even though such observations are recorded as angles, circular probability models are inappropriate for such data since the constraint that observations lie only in [0, π) needs to be enforced. Probability models for such axial data are argued here to have a general structure stemming from that of wrapping a circular distribution on a semi-circle. In particular, we consider the most popular circular model, the von Mises or circular normal distribution, and derive the corresponding axial normal distribution. Certain properties of this distribution are established. Maximum likelihood estimation of its parameters are shown to be surprisingly, in contrast to trigonometric moment estimation, numerically quite appealing. Finally we illustrate our results by several real life axial data sets. Received: September 2004/ Revised: December 2004     

Aspects of a zooplankton,phytoplankton, phosphorus system

In this paper a three-dimensional dynamical system which models the three-species system made up of phytoplankton, zooplankton and organic phosphorus nutrient in a lake environment is studied. The system is part of a more general limnological model for eutrophic lakes and impoundments which has been developed by Battelle Northwest Laboratories. It is shown that this system, henceforth referred to as Z-P-P, has a phase portrait comprised of a plane portrait embedded in the three-dimensional space R³ as an “attractor”.¹ Under a small perturbation of the nutrient equation it is shown that the system is essentially a classical Volterra-Lotka system embedded in a three-dimensional phase space R³.The system derived from Z-P-P by the addition of a term to the nutrient equation which represents the organic phosphorus contribution of dying phytoplankton is also considered. The equilibria of this system are studied and what can be deduced of the phase portrait is compared with that of the above systems. It is found that these phase portraits are qualitatively indifferent to the form of the growth rate functions for zooplankton and phytoplankton provided they are monotone increasing. Some discussion about the stability of these systems is included. Throughout this paper results are interpreted in limnological terms.     

Geolocation of free-ranging fish on the European continental shelf as determined from environmental variables II. Reconstruction of plaice ground tracks

Between December 1993 and February 1997, 302 electronic data storage tags (DSTs), programmed to record depth at 10-min intervals and temperature daily, were attached to mature female plaice, Pleuronectes platessa, and released in the southern North Sea. Fifty tags were returned, 38 of which functioned fully and recorded 2,955 days of data. Twenty-seven tags recorded data over the full period at liberty, and 34 geographical ground tracks were reconstructed. Reconstruction was performed using a two-dimensional tidal stream simulation model that translated vertical movement of fish, recorded by DSTs, into horizontal movement assuming an initial down-tide swimming speed of 0.6 body lengths s^–1. Geographical accuracy of reconstructed tracks was assessed based on closeness of fit between (1) reconstruction endpoint and reported recapture position; (2) reconstructed locations and corresponding locations based on tidal data recorded by DSTs using the tidal location method (TLM; location of areas with similar tidal range and time of high water); and (3) DST temperature records and corresponding averaged sea surface temperature data records for corresponding locations. The results demonstrate that the assumptions of the tidal stream simulation model were sufficient to reconstruct geographically accurate representations of the migrations of individual plaice, which have in turn provided new information on the extent, duration, and directionality of movement. Our study demonstrates how DSTs can provide fishery-independent data with direct management applications in behaviourally driven, individual-based predictive models of fish migration.Communicated by J.P. Thorpe, Port Erin     

Toxicity of methyl tert-butyl ether to marine organisms: ambient water quality criteria calculation

In response to increasing concerns over the detection of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) in groundwater and surface water and its potential effects in aquatic ecosystems, industry and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) began to collaborate in 1997 to develop aquatic toxicity databases sufficient to derive ambient water quality criteria for MTBE consistent with USEPA requirements. Acute toxicity data for seven marine species, chronic toxicity data for an invertebrate, and plant toxicity data were developed to complete the saltwater database. The species tested were Cyprinodon variegatus, Gasterosteus aculeatus, Callinectes sapidus, Mytilus galloprovincialis, Palaemonetes pugio, Rhepoxynius abronius, Americamysis bahia, and Skeletonema costatum. The toxicity tests were conducted in accordance with USEPA and American Society for Testing and Materials testing procedures and Good Laboratory Practice guidelines. Data developed from this study were consistent with existing data and showed that MTBE has low acute and chronic toxicity to the marine species tested. Based upon measured MTBE concentrations, acute effects were found to range from 166 mg MTBE/l for the grass shrimp to 1950 mg MTBE/l for marine mussel. The no-observed effect concentration for the reproduction and growth of mysids was 26 mg MTBE/l during the life cycle test. The toxicity of MTBE to saltwater organisms is comparable to its toxicity to the freshwater species tested. Reported MTBE concentrations in coastal waters are several orders of magnitude lower than concentrations observed to cause effects in marine organisms.     

Reproduction study of toxaphene in the rat

The purpose of the present study was to investigate in rats the reproductive effects of toxaphene, an insecticidal mixture which has been identified as a pollutant in the Great Lakes ecosystem. Groups of 30 female and 15 male weanling rats were given toxaphene in the diets at 0, 4.0, 20, 100 or 500 ppm in a 1 generation 2 litter reproduction study. Toxaphene treatment at the levels studied had no effects on the litter size, pup weight, fertility, or gestation and survival indices. Toxic effects in the parental rats included depressed weight gain, elevated serum cholesterol, and increased liver and kidney weight and hepatic microsomal enzyme activities. Most of these effects were associated only with 500 ppm toxaphene treatment. Treatment-related histological changes in the liver, thyroid and kidney of adult rats were observed at levels as low as 20 ppm. Based on the data presented, the no observable adverse effect dose of toxaphene was considered to be 4.0 ppm in the diet (0.29-0.38 mg/kg b.w./day depending on the amount of dietary intake).     

REST-Rossendorf expert system for surface and sorption thermodynamics

This paper presents a digitized version of a thermodynamic sorption database, implemented as a relational database with MS Access. It is mineral-specific and can therefore be used for additive models of complex solid phases such as rocks or soils. An integrated user interface helps users to access selected mineral and sorption data, to extract internally consistent data sets for sorption modeling, and to export them in formats suitable for other modeling software. Data records comprise mineral properties, specific surface area values, surface binding sites' characteristics, sorption ligand information, and surface complexation reactions. An extensive bibliography is included, providing links not only to the above listed data, but also to background information concerning surface complexation model theories, evidence for surface species, and sorption experimental techniques.     

Environmental photodegradation of mefenamic acid

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products are an emerging class of environmental pollutants. Photolysis is expected to be a major loss process for many of these compounds in surface waters, including the common non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug mefenamic acid. The direct photolysis solar quantum yield of mefenamic acid was observed to be 1.5+/-0.3x10(-4). Significant photosensitization was observed in solutions of Suwanee River fulvic acid and Mississippi River water, as well as for the model photosensitization compounds 3'-methoxyacetophenone, 2-acetonaphthone and perinaphthenone. Quenching, sparging and light-filtering experiments suggested a direct reaction of mefenamic acid with excited triplet-state dissolved organic matter as the major photosensitization process. The persistence of the model photosensitizer suggests that the photosensitization by perinaphthenone occurs either by triplet-energy transfer or an electron transfer followed by rapid regeneration of the sensitizer. Due to its low quantum yield, the loss of mefenamic acid in sunlit natural waters is expected to depend on both direct and indirect photodegradation processes.     

Flimmerverschmelzungsfrequenz und Arbeitsbeanspruchung

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