Urban Flood Damage and Greenhouse Scenarios - The Implications for Policy: An Example from Australia

Urban flooding is often used as an illustration of the potentially adverse effects of greenhouse-induced climate change on extreme events. There is however, a paucity of studies that convert climate scenarios into changes in flood damage. This account summarises the use of modelling techniques, for three flood prone urban catchments in south eastern Australia, to assess changes to urban flood losses for the 'most wet' and 'most dry' scenarios for the year 2070. The most wet scenario indicates that annual average flood damage could increase within the range of 2.5 to 10 times, under the most dry scenario flood regimes would be similar to those experienced at present. The socio-economic scenarios based on the changes to flood losses are used to consider policy responses. It is unlikely that many local government authorities will respond because of lack of interest and because of major changes to the climate scenarios proposed over the last decade. Any response is likely to be incremental and accord with the 'no regrets' and the precautionary principle'.     

Breccias of the Adnet Formation: indicators of a Mid-Liassic tectonic event in the Northern Calcareous Alps (Salzburg/Austria)

Stratigraphy, lithology and depositional structures of Liassic red limestone-breccias of the Adnet Formation, including the 'Adnet Scheck', were studied at several outcrops of the Northern Calcareous Alps (NCA) south-east of Salzburg. A four-fold lithostratigraphic division is proposed for the Adnet Formation of the Osterhorn Mountains: the hemipelagic Schmiedwirt (Sinemurian) and Kehlbach (Carixian) members are separated from the pelagic Saubach Member (Toarcian) by a layer of amalgamated breccias (Scheck Member, probably Domerian to early Toarcian). Several other breccia beds occur locally from the base of the Kehlbach Member up to the lower Saubach Member. Although the sediments overlying the Scheck Member breccias are of coeval age, the ages of the underlying strata are very different. This can be explained by submarine Liassic erosion during a period of resedimentation from the middle Carixian until the early Toarcian. At least 10–15?m of partly lithified sediments were eroded by gravity flows. The entire Kehlbach Member and up to two-thirds of the Schmiedwirt Member were removed at Adnet. The breccias originated from submarine debris flows. Repeated flows over a long period and the depositional setting exclude a triggering by sea-level fluctuations. Most probably they arose from tectonically triggered slumps and slides of superficial sediments. The 'Scheck' was initiated on the steep upper slope of the drowned Triassic Adnet reef and flowed to the north-east.The Pliensbachian to early Toarcian period of tectonic activity indicated by the breccias was the most important during the Liassic in the Osterhorn Mountains and other parts of the NCA. From the large-scale regional distribution of the breccias and in accord with published data, a roughly north-east trending strike-slip fault zone is proposed, crossing the NCA south of the Osterhorn block, with a peaking activity during the Pliensbachian to early Toarcian as the cause of the tectonic movements.     

The association between alpha-fetoprotein and βhcg levels prior to and following chorionic villus sampling in cases that spontaneously miscarried

Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (βhCG) measurements taken prior to chorionic villus sampling (CVS) in 21 patients who subsequently miscarried were compared with measurements in a control group of 113 patients with uneventful pregnancies. Patients with AFP levels of 10 iu/ml or more prior to the CVS had a 4·3 times greater risk of miscarriage (95 per cent confidence interval 1·3–13·6). AFP levels obtained 1 week after the CVS in the 13 patients with late miscarriages were higher than in the control group (P = 0·06). Patients miscarrying had a greater rise in AFP (P = 0·06) and a greater fall in βhCG levels (P = 0·04) following the CVS procedure, compared with the control subjects. Each 10-unit change in the difference between AFP or βhCG levels prior to and 1 week following the CVS was associated with a significantly increased risk for late miscarriage. Elevated maternal serum AFP levels early in pregnancy and changes in AFP and βhCG levels following CVS may predict an increased risk for subsequent miscarriage.