On the uncertainty and confidence in decision support tools (DSTs) with insights from the Baltic Sea ecosystem

Ecosystems around the world are increasingly exposed to multiple, often interacting human activities, leading to pressures and possibly environmental state changes. Decision support tools (DSTs) can assist environmental managers and policy makers to evaluate the current status of ecosystems (i.e. assessment tools) and the consequences of alternative policies or management scenarios (i.e. planning tools) to make the best possible decision based on prevailing knowledge and uncertainties. However, to be confident in DST outcomes it is imperative that known sources of uncertainty such as sampling and measurement error, model structure, and parameter use are quantified, documented, and addressed throughout the DST set-up, calibration, and validation processes. Here we provide a brief overview of the main sources of uncertainty and methods currently available to quantify uncertainty in DST input and output. We then review 42 existing DSTs that were designed to manage anthropogenic pressures in the Baltic Sea to summarise how and what sources of uncertainties were addressed within planning and assessment tools. Based on our findings, we recommend future DST development to adhere to good modelling practise principles, and to better document and communicate uncertainty among stakeholders.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-020-01385-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Preservation methods alter stable isotope values in gelatinous zooplankton: implications for interpreting trophic ecology

Jellyfish are increasingly topical within studies of marine food webs. Stable isotope analysis represents a valuable technique to unravel the complex trophic role of these long-overlooked species. In other taxa, sample preservation has been shown to alter the isotopic values of species under consideration, potentially leading to misinterpretation of trophic ecology. To identify potential preservation effects in jellyfish, we collected Aurelia aurita from Strangford Lough (54^o22′44.73″N, 5^o32′53.44″W) during May 2009 and processed them using three different methods prior to isotopic analysis (unpreserved, frozen and preserved in ethanol). A distinct preservation effect was found on δ¹⁵N values: furthermore, preservation also influenced the positive allometric relationship between individual size and δ¹⁵N values. Conversely, δ¹³C values remained consistent between the three preservation methods, conflicting with previous findings for other invertebrate, fish and mammalian species. These findings have implications for incorporation of jellyfish into marine food webs and remote sampling regimes where preservation of samples is unavoidable.     

Home energy efficiency grants and advice: findings from the English Midlands

Research was conducted in Nottinghamshire, England to investigate public attitudes regarding home energy efficiency issues. Quantitative data were collected in the form of a postal survey, achieving over three hundred responses. Additionally, predominantly qualitative data were collected in semi-structured interviews in 15 homes. The issues investigated included the grant-funded energy efficiency measures installed by the public, the organisations providing grants, the means by which the recipients were referred to the organisations, and the public's preferences regarding energy efficiency advice. Findings were made about the local authority's success in encouraging the take-up of energy efficiency grants, about the public's preferences for the means by which advice should be provided, about trust relating to energy efficiency grants provided by gas and electricity suppliers, and about people's knowledge of the most effective energy efficiency measures. Additional findings were drawn about specific energy efficiency issues, including old heating systems and compact fluorescent light bulbs.     

How Ecology Can Edify Ethics: The Scope of Morality

Over the past several decades environmental ethics has grown markedly, normative ethics having provided essential grounding in assessing human treatment of the environment. Even a systematic approach, such as Paul Taylor’s, in a sense tells the environment how it is to be treated, whether that be Earth’s ecosystem or the universe itself. Can the environment, especially the ecosystem, as understood through the study of ecology, in turn offer normative and applied (environmental) ethics any edification? The study of ecology has certainly increased awareness of the fact that it is not possible for a moral agent within the ecosystem to step outside its intricate mesh of actions and events, of causes and effects. That is, absolutely everything that an agent can do can have some, often unforeseeable, outcome in the environment. An incompletely snuffed-out match tossed out a car window can cause a forest fire, which causes biome destruction, which causes x, y, and z. In sum, the ecosystem can edify ethics in terms of the scope of ethics, which remains an unsettled, if too-often ignored, matter. By such an inclusive view of moral scope, as derived in part from ecology and as presented here, the scope of moral behavior would include—whether or not adventitiously—every action an agent may do. By this view, moral scope is, in essence, unlimited. The article offers some ramifications of this view of moral scope.     

Males are selective too: mating, but not courtship, with sequential females influences choosiness in male field crickets (Gryllus bimaculatus)

Mate choice experiments have generally focused on female choice; few have considered that males can also be selective. We examined courtship in male field crickets sequentially introduced to four females of differing size. Large (L) and small (S) females were introduced in order of either LSLS or SLSL. We demonstrate that naive males invest equally (courtship effort) in the first female they meet, regardless of her size, but show greater courtship effort when they subsequently encounter large compared with small females. Moreover, we demonstrate that males show this discriminatory behavior when they are permitted to mate with females (i.e. use a spermatophore) but are less choosy when the female is removed before spermatophore transfer.     

In vivo K-shell X-ray fluorescence bone lead measurements in young adults

The (109)Cd K-shell X-ray fluorescence (XRF) technique was used to measure in vivo tibia lead concentrations of 34 young adults living in the state of Vermont (USA) and the province of New Brunswick (Canada). The subjects ranged in age from 18 to 35 years, and had no known history of elevated lead exposure. Measurement parameters were varied, using the same XRF system for both populations. Tibia lead concentrations were low for both groups, with mean values of 0.7 microg lead g(-1) bone mineral (Vermont) and 0.5 microg g(-1)(New Brunswick). No individual measurement exceeded 7 microg g(-1). Mean uncertainty values obtained for the Vermont and New Brunswick subjects were 4.1 microg g(-1) and 2.6 microg g(-1), respectively. Improved measurement uncertainty in the New Brunswick group was attributed to the use of a reduced source-to-skin distance (approximately 5 mm) and a longer measurement time (3600 seconds) using a weaker radioisotope source (< or =0.42 GBq). Measurement uncertainty tended to increase with body mass index. For a given body mass index, female subjects returned a measurement uncertainty approximately 1 microg g(-1) greater than males.     

Assessing the effectiveness of specially protected areas for conservation of Antarctica's botanical diversity

Vegetation is sparsely distributed over Antarctica's ice‐free ground, and distinct plant communities are present in each of the continent's 15 recently identified Antarctic Conservation Biogeographic Regions (ACBRs). With rapidly increasing human activity in Antarctica, terrestrial plant communities are at risk of damage or destruction by trampling, overland transport, and infrastructure construction and from the impacts of anthropogenically introduced species, as well as uncontrollable pressures such as fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) activity and climate change. Under the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty, the conservation of plant communities can be enacted and facilitated through the designation of Antarctic Specially Protected Areas (ASPAs). We examined the distribution within the 15 ACBRs of the 33 ASPAs whose explicit purpose includes protecting macroscopic terrestrial flora. We completed the first survey using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) satellite remote sensing to provide baseline data on the extent of vegetation cover in all ASPAs designated for plant protection in Antarctica. Large omissions in the protection of Antarctic botanical diversity were found. There was no protection of plant communities in 6 ACBRs, and in another 6, <0.4% of the ACBR area was included in an ASPA that protected vegetation. Protected vegetation cover within the 33 ASPAs totaled 16.1 km² for the entire Antarctic continent; over half was within a single protected area. Over 96% of the protected vegetation was contained in 2 ACBRs, which together contributed only 7.8% of the continent's ice‐free ground. We conclude that Antarctic botanical diversity is clearly inadequately protected and call for systematic designation of ASPAs protecting plant communities by the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Parties, the members of the governing body of the continent.     

Multispecies and Multiscale Conservation Planning: Setting Quantitative Targets for Red‐Listed Lichens on Ancient Oaks

Abstract: Species occurrence in a habitat patch depends on local habitat and the amount of that habitat in the wider landscape. We used predictions from empirical landscape studies to set quantitative conservation criteria and targets in a multispecies and multiscale conservation planning effort. We used regression analyses to compare species richness and occurrence of five red‐listed lichens on 50 ancient oaks (Quercus robur; 120–140 cm in diameter) with the density of ancient oaks in circles of varying radius from each individual oak. Species richness and the occurrence of three of the five species were best explained by increasing density of oaks within 0.5 km; one species was best explained by the density of oaks within 2 km, and another was best predicted by the density of oaks within 5 km. The minimum numbers of ancient oaks required for “successful conservation” was defined as the number of oaks required to obtain a predicted local occurrence of 50% for all species included or a predicted local occurrence of 80% for all species included. These numbers of oaks were calculated for two relevant landscape scales (1 km² and 13 km²) that corresponded to various species responses, in such a way that calculations also accounted for local number of oaks. Ten and seven of the 50 ancient oaks surveyed were situated in landscapes that already fulfilled criteria for successful conservation when the 50% and 80% criteria, respectively, were used to define the level of successful conservation. For cost‐efficient conservation, oak stands in the landscapes most suitable for successful conservation should be prioritized for conservation and management (e.g., grazing and planting of new oaks) at the expense of oak stands situated elsewhere.     

ALTERNATIVES FOR GROUND WATER LAW CHANGE IN ARIZONA1

ABSTRACT: Western state water resources are drawing increasing attention because of prolonged drought, pound-water overdraft and an ever-increasing awareness of insufficient Colorado River water to supply a growing population and meet industrial demand. Arizona is no exception, and the alarming decline in ground-water levels has prompted the Arizona State Legislature to adopt legislation establishing the Ground-Water Management Study Commission to recommend legislative action by 1979. This paper summarizes Arizona's ground water legislative history and discusses possible alternatives for change. The authors address specific issues facing the State and offer a set of possible Commission recommendations.