Application of statistical modeling to optimize a coastal water quality monitoring program

The long-term water quality monitoring program implemented by the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority in 1992 is extensive and has provide substantial understanding of the seasonality of the waters in both Boston Harbor and Massachusetts Bay and the response to improvements in effluent quality and offshore transfer of the effluent in September 2000. The monitoring program was designed with limited knowledge of spatial and temporal variability and long-term trends within the system. This led to an extensive spatial and temporal sampling program. The data through 2003 showed high correlation within physical parameters measured (e.g., salinity, dissolved oxygen) and in biological measures such as chlorophyll fluorescence. To address the potential sampling redundancies in the measurement program, an assessment of the impact of reduced levels of monitoring on the ability to make water quality decisions was completed. The optimization was conducted by applying statistical models that took into account whether there was evidence of a seasonal pattern in the data. The optimization used model survey average readings to identify temporal fixed effects, model survey-average-corrected individual station readings to identify spatial fixed effects, corrected the individual station readings for temporal and spatial fixed effects and derived a correlation model for the corrected data, and applied the correlation model to characterize the correlation of annual average readings from reduced monitoring programs with true parameter levels. Reductions in the number of sampling stations were found less detrimental to the quality of the data for annual decision-making than reductions in the number of surveys per year, although there is less of a difference in this regard for dissolved oxygen than there is for chlorophyll. The analysis led to recommendations for a substantially lower monitoring effort with minimal loss of information. The recommendation supported an annual budget savings of approximately $183,000. Most of the savings was from fewer surveys as approximately $21,000 came from the reduction in the number of stations monitored from 21 to 7 and associated laboratory analytical costs.     

An evaluation of selenium concentrations in water, sediment, invertebrates, and fish from the Solomon River Basin

The Solomon River Basin is located in north-central Kansas in an area underlain by marine geologic shales. Selenium is an indigenous constituent of these shales and is readily leached into the surrounding groundwater. Portions of the Basin are irrigated primarily through the pumping of selenium-contaminated groundwater from wells onto fields in agricultural production. Water, sediment, macroinvertebrates, and fish were collected from various sites in the Basin in 1998 and analyzed for selenium. Selenium concentrations were analyzed spatially and temporally and compared to reported selenium toxic effect thresholds for specific ecosystem components: water, sediments, food-chain organisms, and wholebody fish. A selenium aquatic hazard assessment for the Basin was determined based on protocol established by Lemly. Throughout the Basin, water, macroinvertebrate, and whole fish samples exceeded levels suspected of causing reproductive impairment in fish. Population structures of several fish species implied that successful reproduction was occurring; however, the influence of immigration of fish from low-selenium habitats could not be discounted. Site-specific fish reproduction studies are needed to determine the true impact of selenium on fishery resources in the Basin. The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Design and evaluation of an inlet conditioner to dry particles for real-time particle sizers

Real-time particle sizers provide rapid information about atmospheric particles, particularly peak exposures, which may be important in the development of adverse health outcomes. However, these instruments are subject to erroneous readings in high-humidity environments when compared with measurements from filter-based, federal reference method (FRM) samplers. Laboratory tests were conducted to evaluate the ability of three inlet conditioners to dry aerosol prior to entering a real-time particle sizer for measuring coarse aerosols (Model 3321 Aerodynamic Particle Sizer, APS) under simulated highly humid conditions. Two 30 day field studies in Birmingham, AL, USA were conducted to compare the response of two APSs operated with and without an inlet conditioner to that measured with FRM samplers. In field studies, the correlation of PM(10-2.5) derived from the APS and that measured with the FRM was substantially stronger with an inlet conditioner applied (r2 ranged from 0.91 to 0.99) than with no conditioner (r2 = 0.61). Laboratory experiments confirmed the ability of the heater and desiccant conditioner to remove particle-borne moisture. In field tests, water was found associated with particles across the sizing range of the APS (0.5 microm to 20 microm) when relative humidity was high in Birmingham. Certain types of inlet conditioners may substantially improve the correlation between particulate mass concentration derived from real-time particle sizers and filter-based samplers in humid conditions.     

Development and Parameterization of a Rain- and Fire-driven Model for Exploring Elephant Effects in African Savannas

We describe the development and parameterization of a grid-based model of African savanna vegetation processes. The model was developed with the objective of exploring elephant effects on the diversity of savanna species and structure, and in this formulation concentrates on the relative cover of grass and woody plants, the vertical structure of the woody plant community, and the distribution of these over space. Grid cells are linked by seed dispersal and fire, and environmental variability is included in the form of stochastic rainfall and fire events. The model was parameterized from an extensive review of the African savanna literature; when available, parameter values varied widely. The most plausible set of parameters produced long-term coexistence between woody plants and grass, with the tree–grass balance being more sensitive to changes in parameters influencing demographic processes and drought incidence and response, while less sensitive to fire regime. There was considerable diversity in the woody structure of savanna systems within the range of uncertainty in tree growth rate parameters. Thus, given the paucity of height growth data regarding woody plant species in southern African savannas, managers of natural areas should be cognizant of different tree species growth and damage response attributes when considering whether to act on perceived elephant threats to vegetation.     

Origin and characterisation of microparticles in an ice core from the Central Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica

The scanning electron microscopy-energy dispersive spectroscopic (SEM-EDS) study of selected samples from an ice core collected from Central Dronning Maud Land (CDML), East Antarctica, revealed several microparticles. They are mainly siliceous and carbonaceous particles and have distinct variations in their shape and composition. The morphology and major element chemistry of the particles suggest their origin from either volcanic eruptions or continental dust. The EDS analysis revealed that the volcanic particles are enriched in silica (average SiO2 62%), compared to the continental dust particle (average SiO2 56%). We found that the tephra relating to Agung (1963) and Karkatau (1883) volcanic eruptions, as recorded, in the ice core harbored microbial cells (both coocoid and rods). The occurrence of organic and inorganic particles which bear relation to volcanic eruption and continental dust implies significant environmental changes in the recent past.     

Online detection of waterborne bioavailable copper by valve daily rhythms in freshwater clam Corbicula fluminea

Freshwater clam Corbicula fluminea, a surrogate species in metal toxicity testing, is a promising bioindicator of impairment in aquatic ecosystems. Little is known, however, about the relationship between clam valve daily rhythmic response and metal bioavailability related to a metal biological early warning system (BEWS) design. The purpose of this study was to link biotic ligand model (BLM)-based bioavailability and valve daily rhythm in C. fluminea to design a biomonitoring system for online in situ detection of waterborne copper (Cu). We integrated the Hill-based dose-time-response function and the fitted daily rhythm function of valve closure into a constructed programmatic mechanism. The functional presentation of the present dynamic system was completely demonstrated by employing a LabVIEW graphic control program in a personal computer. We used site-specific effect concentration causing 10% of total valve closure response (EC10) as the detection threshold to implement the proposed C. fluminea-based Cu BEWS. Here our results show that the proposed C. fluminea-based BEWS could be deliberately synthesized to online in situ transmit rapidly the information on waterborne bioavailable Cu levels under various aquatic environmental conditions through monitoring the valve daily rhythmic changes. We suggested that the developed C. fluminea-based dynamic biomonitoring system could assist in developing technically defensible site-specific water quality criteria to promote more efficient uses in water resources for protection of species health in aquatic environments.     

Mathematical models for accurate prediction of atmospheric visibility with particular reference to the seasonal and environmental patterns in Hong Kong

Atmospheric visibility impairment has gained increasing concern as it is associated with the existence of a number of aerosols as well as common air pollutants and produces unfavorable conditions for observation, dispersion, and transportation. This study analyzed the atmospheric visibility data measured in urban and suburban Hong Kong (two selected stations) with respect to time-matched mass concentrations of common air pollutants including nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), nitrogen monoxide (NO), respirable suspended particulates (PM(10)), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), carbon monoxide (CO), and meteorological parameters including air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. No significant difference in atmospheric visibility was reported between the two measurement locations (p > or = 0.6, t test); and good atmospheric visibility was observed more frequently in summer and autumn than in winter and spring (p < 0.01, t test). It was also found that atmospheric visibility increased with temperature but decreased with the concentrations of SO(2), CO, PM(10), NO, and NO(2). The results showed that atmospheric visibility was season dependent and would have significant correlations with temperature, the mass concentrations of PM(10) and NO(2), and the air pollution index API (correlation coefficients mid R: R mid R: > or = 0.7, p < or = 0.0001, t test). Mathematical expressions catering to the seasonal variations of atmospheric visibility were thus proposed. By comparison, the proposed visibility prediction models were more accurate than some existing regional models. In addition to improving visibility prediction accuracy, this study would be useful for understanding the context of low atmospheric visibility, exploring possible remedial measures, and evaluating the impact of air pollution and atmospheric visibility impairment in this region.     

Non-intrusive characterization methods for wastewater-affected groundwater plumes discharging to an alpine lake

Streams and lakes in rocky environments are especially susceptible to nutrient loading from wastewater-affected groundwater plumes. However, the use of invasive techniques such as drilling wells, installing piezometers or seepage meters, to detect and characterize these plumes can be prohibitive. In this work, we report on the use of four non-intrusive methods for this purpose at a site in the Rocky Mountains. The methods included non-invasive geophysical surveys of subsurface electrical conductivity (EC), in-situ EC measurement of discharging groundwater at the lake-sediment interface, shoreline water sampling and nutrient analysis, and shoreline periphyton sampling and analysis of biomass and taxa relative abundance. The geophysical surveys were able to detect and delineate two high-EC plumes, with capacitively coupled ERI (OhmMapper) providing detailed two-dimensional images. In situ measurements at the suspected discharge locations confirmed the presence of high-EC water in the two plumes and corroborated their spatial extent. The nutrient and periphyton results showed that only one of the two high-EC plumes posed a current eutrophication threat, with elevated nitrogen and phosphorus levels, high localized periphyton biomass and major shifts in taxonomic composition to taxa that are commonly associated with anthropogenic nutrient loading. This study highlights the need to use non-intrusive methods in combination, with geophysical and water EC-based methods used for initial detection of wastewater-affected groundwater plumes, and nutrient or periphyton sampling used to characterize their ecological effects.     

Phosphate adsorption characteristics at the sediment–water interface and phosphorus fractions in Nansi Lake, China, and its main inflow rivers

Phosphorus fractions and phosphate adsorption characteristics of 16 sediments from a shallow freshwater lake (Nansi Lake, China) and its inflow estuaries were investigated. In the present study, the sediment phosphorus is fractionated into exchangeable P (exch-P), Al-P, Fe-P, Ca-P, organic P (OP), inorganic P (IP) and total P (TP). The results show that the total phosphorus (TP) content in the sediments ranges from 571.67 to 1,113.55 mg kg(-1), and calcium bound phosphorus (Ca-P) is the main fraction of IP. The biologically available phosphorus (BAP) ranges from 32.02 to 229.67 mg kg(-1) in the Nansi Lake sediments. Phosphate adsorption on the sediments mainly occurs within 10 h and is completed within 48 h. The content of native adsorbed phosphorus (omega(NAP)) varies greatly from 6.05 to 194.37 mg kg(-1), showing a significant correlation with the total maximal amount of phosphorus adsorbed (TQ(max)). Adsorption efficiency (m) ranges from 574.79 to 3,220.68 l kg(-1) and zero equilibrium phosphorus concentration (C(EPC)) ranges from 0.010 to 0.157 mg l(-1). After the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, the inherent phosphorus present in sediments will be a major threat to the diverted water quality and be a predominant factor determining the trophic status of the lake even if the external load is reduced.     

Use of preserved museum fish to evaluate historical and current mercury contamination in fish from two rivers in Oklahoma, USA

We examined the effects of a commonly used preservation technique on mercury concentration in fish tissue. After fixing fish muscle tissue in formalin followed by preservation in isopropanol, we found that mercury concentration in fish muscle tissue increased by 18%, reaching an asymptote after 40 days. We used formalin–isopropanol-preserved longear sunfish (Lepomis megalotis) from the Sam Noble Oklahoma Museum of Natural History to examine historical changes and predict current mercury concentrations in fish from two rivers in southeastern Oklahoma. Glover River was free-flowing, while Mountain Fork River was impounded in 1970 and a coldwater trout fishery was established upstream from the collection site in 1989. Mercury concentrations in longear sunfish from Glover River showed no historical changes from 1963 to 2001. Mercury concentrations in longear sunfish from Mountain Fork River showed no change from 1925 to 1993 but declined significantly from 1993 to 2003. We also compared mercury concentrations of the most recently collected longear sunfish in the museum to mercury concentrations of unpreserved fish collected from the rivers in 2006. Concentrations of mercury in museum fish were not significantly different from mercury concentrations in unpreserved fish we collected from the rivers. Our study indicates that preserved museum fish specimens can be used to evaluate historical changes and predict current levels of mercury contamination in fish.