Value of information for climate observing systems

The Interagency Working Group Memo on the social cost of carbon is used to compute the value of information (VOI) of climate observing systems. A generic decision context is posited in which society switches from a business as usual (BAU) emissions path to a reduced emissions path upon achieving sufficient confidence that a trigger variable exceeds a stipulated critical value. Using assessments of natural variability and uncertainty of measuring instruments, it is possible to compute the time at which the required confidence would be reached under the current and under a new observing system, if indeed the critical value is reached. Economic damages (worldwide) from carbon emissions are computed with an integrated assessment model. The more accurate observing system acquires the required confidence earlier and switches sooner to the reduced emissions path, thereby avoiding more damages which would otherwise be incurred by BAU emissions. The difference in expected net present value of averted damages under the two observing systems is the VOI of the new observing system relative to the existing system. As illustration, the VOI for the proposed space-borne CLARREO system relative to current space-borne systems is computed. Depending on details of the decision context, the VOI ranges from 2 to 30 trillion US dollars.     

Public Acceptance of Wildland Fire and Fuel Management: Panel Responses in Seven Locations

Wildland fire affects both public and private resources throughout the United States. A century of fire suppression has contributed to changing ecological conditions and accumulated fuel loads. Managers have used a variety of approaches to address these conditions and reduce the likelihood of wildland fires that may result in adverse ecological impacts and threaten communities. Public acceptance is a critical component of developing and implementing successful management programs. This study examines the factors that influence citizen support for agency fuel reduction treatments over time—particularly prescribed fire and mechanical vegetation removal. This paper presents findings from a longitudinal study examining resident beliefs and attitudes regarding fire management and fuels treatments in seven states: Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The study was implemented in two phases over a 6-year period using mail surveys to residents of communities adjacent to federal lands in each location. Questions replicated measures from the original project as well as some new items to allow a more in-depth analysis of key concepts. The study design enables comparisons over time as well as between locations. We also assess the factors that influence acceptance of both prescribed fire and mechanical vegetation removal. Findings demonstrate a relative stability of attitudes toward fuels management approaches over time and suggest that this acceptance is strongly influenced by confidence in resource managers and beliefs that the treatments would result in positive outcomes.     

Demographic heterogeneity, cohort selection, and population growth

Demographic heterogeneity--variation among individuals in survival and reproduction--is ubiquitous in natural populations. Structured population models address heterogeneity due to age, size, or major developmental stages. However, other important sources of demographic heterogeneity, such as genetic variation, spatial heterogeneity in the environment, maternal effects, and differential exposure to stressors, are often not easily measured and hence are modeled as stochasticity. Recent research has elucidated the role of demographic heterogeneity in changing the magnitude of demographic stochasticity in small populations. Here we demonstrate a previously unrecognized effect: heterogeneous survival in long-lived species can increase the long-term growth rate in populations of any size. We illustrate this result using simple models in which each individual's annual survival rate is independent of age but survival may differ among individuals within a cohort. Similar models, but with nonoverlapping generations, have been extensively studied by demographers, who showed that, because the more "frail" individuals are more likely to die at a young age, the average survival rate of the cohort increases with age. Within ecology and evolution, this phenomenon of "cohort selection" is increasingly appreciated as a confounding factor in studies of senescence. We show that, when placed in a population model with overlapping generations, this heterogeneity also causes the asymptotic population growth rate lambda to increase, relative to a homogeneous population with the same mean survival rate at birth. The increase occurs because, even integrating over all the cohorts in the population, the population becomes increasingly dominated by the more robust individuals. The growth rate increases monotonically with the variance in survival rates, and the effect can be substantial, easily doubling the growth rate of slow-growing populations. Correlations between parent and offspring phenotype change the magnitude of the increase in lambda, but the increase occurs even for negative parent-offspring correlations. The effect of heterogeneity in reproductive rate on lambda is quite different: growth rate increases with reproductive heterogeneity for positive parent-offspring correlation but decreases for negative parent-offspring correlation. These effects of demographic heterogeneity on lambda have important implications for population dynamics, population viability analysis, and evolution.     

Crime in post‐Katrina Houston: the effects of moral panic on emergency planning

This study used a mixed methods approach to estimate whether a moral panic occurred after Hurricane Katrina forced the evacuations of more than 250,000 people to Houston, Texas. The study viewed data from the Houston Police Department combined with a qualitative review of references of criminal activity in local print media. In total, over 8,500 lines of text were analysed to discern themes associated with media representations of the influence of evacuees on the city of Houston. There was little evidence of statistically significant increases in crime over the months following the evacuations. There was, however, evidence that evacuees, principally from New Orleans, were blamed for perceived increases in violent crime and lawlessness. There are also significant policy implications for state, local and federal governments. In particular, the policies of the Federal Emergency Management Agency were blamed for at least some of the perceived crime attributed to Katrina evacuees.     

Feature Extraction Techniques for Measuring Piñon and Juniper Tree Cover and Density,and Comparison with Field-Based Management Surveys

Western North America is experiencing a dramatic expansion of piñon (Pinus spp.) and juniper (Juniperus spp.) (P-J) trees into shrub-steppe communities. Feature extracted data acquired from remotely sensed imagery can help managers rapidly and accurately assess this land cover change in order to manage rangeland ecosystems at a landscape-scale. The objectives of this study were to: (1) develop an effective and efficient method for accurately quantifying P-J tree canopy cover and density directly from high resolution photographs and (2) compare feature-extracted data to typical in-situ datasets used by land managers. Tree cover was extracted from aerial-photography using Feature Analyst^®. Tree density was calculated as the sum of the total number of individual polygons (trees) within the tree cover output file after isolation using a negative buffer post-processing technique. Feature-extracted data were compared to ground reference measurements from Utah’s Division of Wildlife Resources Range Trend Project (DWR-RTP). We found that the proposed feature-extraction techniques used for measuring cover and density were highly correlated to ground reference and DWR-RTP datasets. Feature-extracted measurements of cover generally showed a near 1:1 relationship to these data, while tree density was underestimated; however, after calibration for juvenile trees, a near 1:1 relationship was realized. Feature-extraction techniques used in this study provide an efficient method for assessing important rangeland indicators, including: density, cover, and extent of P-J tree encroachment. Correlations found between field and feature-extracted data provide evidence to support extrapolation between the two approaches when assessing woodland encroachment.     

The local authority EMAS in the UK: the Sutton model

The London Borough of Sutton was the first local authority in the UK to register units under the EMAS scheme. Working on a unit by unit basis the whole of the authority will be registered by the end of 1999. The EMAS was seen as the most appropriate tool for maintaining and expanding existing environmental initiatives in an increasingly restricted sector. The resulting new systems and work practices were seen to increase organizational efficiency by making sure that the right environmental questions were asked by the right people at the right time. The work has highlighted a number of strengths and weaknesses of the EMAS for local authorities and has highlighted the need for a more integrated approach in the future for local authorities to meet fully the needs of sustainability and Local Agenda 21.     

'Capacity for Change': Testing a Model for the Inclusion of Social Indicators in Australia's National Land and Water Resources Audit

The complexity of relationships between social change and natural resource management has generated interest in the identification of indicators that might provide more streamlined means for monitoring and planning. In the case of Australia's National Land and Water Resources Audit, interest has focused on the capacity of resource managers to implement more sustainable resource-use practices. This paper reports on an attempt to develop indicators of 'capacity for change' that are statistically reliable and both meaningful and useful to resource managers at a variety of scales. It will be argued, however, that social, spatial and temporal variability in change processes means that no discrete list of social indicators can achieve this task. At the same time that rigorous testing is needed to challenge common-sense assumptions about who is capable of change and where to target capacity-building programmes, data collection and interpretation must be embedded in processes of ongoing negotiation and adaptation among all those involved in, or affected by, resource management.     

The effects of shark cage-diving operations on the behaviour and movements of white sharks, Carcharodon carcharias, at the Neptune Islands, South Australia

The attraction or provisioning of sharks for the purpose of tourism is a lucrative and popular industry that remains controversial regarding its possible risks to target species and impacts on local ecosystems. The long-term impacts of such activities on the behaviour and movement patterns of sharks have typically been difficult to establish as most studies investigate contemporary behaviour concurrent with existing operations and thus have no comparative base from which to compare effects. We compared patterns of residency and behaviour of acoustic-tagged white sharks at the Neptune Islands in South Australia between periods before and after an abrupt and sustained doubling of cage-diving effort that occurred in 2007. The number of sharks reported by cage-dive operators significantly increased after 2007. Comparisons also revealed there were significant increases in sharks’ periods of residency, the periods spent within areas where shark cage-diving operations occur and changes in sharks’ diel pattern of habitat use. Changes were site-specific with no significant differences in shark behaviour revealed over the same period at an island group 12 km from regular shark cage-dive sites. The results suggest that cage-diving operations can lead to long-term changes in the site-specific behaviour of a highly vagile shark species which may need to be considered in the context of their conservation and in managing the impacts of the industry.