ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS FOR WATER SUPPLY ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT Providing adequate water supplies of good quality is becoming a serious problem in many areas of the United States. Some of the alternatives proposed for meeting the growing shortage of clean-water or cheap-water are reallocation, reuse, and importation. This paper outlines a methodology to assess all of these water supply alternatives by examining the amount and time-staging for development of water sources. In conceptualizing the problem, sources of supply are classified in three categories: primary or base supplies, secondary or effluent supplies, and supplementary or imported supplies. A model of the water system is formulated as a “transportation problem” in linear programming depicting the possible sources of supply which can be used to satisfy the requirements of various water users. The optimizing objective in the model is to minimize the cost of water under various assumptions for operating the system. A case study of the Salt Lake Qty, Utah, area is used to illustrate the application of the model in obtaining optimal water supply allocations for projected future demands. Assessment of alternatives in the study include redistribution of supplies, time-staging of supplies and related treatment facilities, and sensitivity of allocations to changes in costs.     

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Frances Sharples is a terrestrial ecologist in the Environmental Science Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, operated by Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., under Contract No. DE-AC05-840R21400 with the US Department of Energy. Publication No. 3413, Environmental Sciences Division, ORNL.     

Ready or not: How do we accelerate the developmental readiness of leaders?

A theory of leader developmental readiness is examined comprised of leaders' motivation and ability to develop. Early theory-building and testing suggests leaders' motivation to develop is promoted through interest and goals, learning goal orientation, and developmental efficacy; while leaders' ability to develop is promoted through self-awareness, self-complexity, and meta-cognitive ability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTRATROPICAL STORMINESS IN THE UNITED STATES: AN ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Climate change due to enrichment of the atmosphere with carbon dioxide is projected to change the circulation of the atmosphere, increase its moisture content, warm the surface layers, and increase precipitation. Extratropical storms are the intermediate agent in mid-latitudes between changes in the circulation of the atmosphere and surface water resources. The climatology of extratropical storms for the period 1885–1996 is presented, and major changes in storminess are detected across much of North America. General Circulation Model (GCM) projections of storm frequency and storm track are found to have little in common with the observed pattern of storms and evidence no systematic changes in response to an enrichment of the atmosphere with carbon dioxide.     

Hyperdisease in the late Pleistocene: validation of an early 20th century hypothesis

The hypothesis of disease-related large mammal extinction has new support. A unique pathologic zone of resorption was first noticed in a Hiscock Mammut americanum metacarpal. The pathognomonic zone of resorption was present in fifty-nine (52%) of 113 skeletons with feet available for examination. Metacarpals and metatarsals were most commonly affected. Associated rib periosteal reaction is highly suggestive of tuberculosis and the foot lesions were identical to that documented in Bison as pathognomonic for tuberculosis. Recognizing that only a portion of animals infected by infectious tuberculosis develop bone involvement, the high frequency of the pathology in M. americanum suggests that tuberculosis was not simply endemic, but actually pandemic, a hyperdisease. Pandemic tuberculosis was one of several probable factors contributing to mastodon extinction.     

Do recommended driving limits affect teen-reported traffic violations and crashes during the first 12 months of independent driving?

OBJECTIVES: Motor vehicle crashes are highly elevated among newly licensed teenage drivers. Limits on high-risk driving conditions by driver licensing policies and parents can protect novice teens from negative driving outcomes, while they experience and driving proficiency. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the effects of strict parent-imposed driving limits on driving outcomes during the first year of licensure. METHODS: A sample of 3,743 Connecticut teens was recruited and randomized to the Checkpoints Program or comparison condition. Assessments conducted at baseline, licensure, 3-, 6-, and 12-months postlicensure included parent-imposed driving limits, traffic violations, and crashes. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to assess the effects of strict parent limits on traffic violations and crashes during the first year of licensure. RESULTS: Thirty percent of teens reported at least one traffic violation and 40% reported at least one crash. More strict parent-imposed limits at licensure, 3-, 6-, and 12-months postlicensure, were associated with fewer violations and crashes in multivariate analyses. Notably, adherence to recommended night curfew was consistently associated with fewer violations and crashes. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate that strict parent-imposed limits may protect novice teen drivers from negative driving outcomes.     

The Value of Validated Vulnerability Data for Conservation Planning in Rapidly Changing Landscapes

Data needed for informed conservation prioritization are generally greater than the data available, and surrogates are often used. Although the need to anticipate threats is recognized, the effectiveness of surrogates for predicting habitat loss (or vulnerability) to land-use change is seldom tested. Here, we compared properties of two different vulnerability surrogates to validated vulnerability—validated prediction of habitat conversion based on a recent assessment of land-use change. We found that neither surrogate was a particularly effective predictor of vulnerability. Importantly, both surrogates performed poorly in places most imminently threatened with habitat conversion. We also show that the majority of areas protected over the last two decades have low vulnerability to the most active threatening process in this biome (habitat conversion). The contrary patterns of vulnerability and protection suggest that use of validated vulnerability would help to clarify protection needs, which might lead to the improvement of conservation decisions. Our study suggests the integration of validated vulnerability into conservation planning tools may be an important requirement for effective conservation planning in rapidly changing landscapes. We apply our results to discuss the practical considerations and potential value of incorporating validated vulnerability into conservation planning tools both generally and in the context of New Zealand’s indigenous grasslands.     

An in-depth look at parent-imposed driving rules: their strengths and weaknesses

Introduction: With a growing interest in increasing parental involvement in teen driving, it is important to find out what parents are already doing. Method This study assessed the content, delivery, rigidity, and consequences of 143 driving rules reported by 24 parent-teen dyads. Results: Strengths included that driving rules covered the full range of concerns, especially night driving limits and passenger limits, and most parents and teens reported that violations would be followed by consequences, especially talk/warn or no driving. Weaknesses included that many rules were not very strict and only half showed parent-teen agreement on content. Conclusions: These findings suggest that teen driving rules are not clearly defined.