Incorporating Uncertainty into Management Models for Marine Mammals

Abstract: Good management models and good models for understanding biology differ in basic philosophy. Management models must facilitate management decisions despite large amounts of uncertainty about the managed populations. Such models must be based on parameters that can be estimated readily, must explicitly account for uncertainty, and should be simple to understand and implement. In contrast, biological models are designed to elucidate the workings of biology and should not be constrained by management concerns. We illustrate the need to incorporate uncertainty in management models by reviewing the inadequacy of using standard biological models to manage marine mammals in the United States. Past management was based on a simple model that, although it may have represented population dynamics adequately, failed as a management tool because the parameter that triggered management action was extremely difficult to estimate for the majority of populations. Uncertainty in parameter estimation resulted in few conservation actions. We describe a recently adopted management scheme that incorporates uncertainty and its resulting implementation. The approach used in this simple management scheme, which was tested by using simulation models, incorporates uncertainty and mandates monitoring abundance and human-caused mortality. Although the entire scheme may be suitable for application to some terrestrial and marine problems, two features are broadly applicable: the incorporation of uncertainty through simulations of management and the use of quantitative management criteria to translate verbal objectives into levels of acceptable risk.     

The Detection Rate of Enteric Viruses and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Clostridium difficile</Emphasis> in a Waste Water Treatment Plant Effluent

Waste water treatment plant (WWTP) is considered as an important source of surface water contamination by enteric pathogens. In this study, we describe the occurrence of enteric viruses (group A rotaviruses, noroviruses, astroviruses, sapoviruses, hepatitis A virus, and hepatitis E virus) and Clostridium difficile in the effluent of a wastewater treatment plant during a 1-year period. Enteric viruses were simultaneously and efficiently concentrated in a single step using methacrylate monolithic chromatographic support. Rotaviruses, noroviruses (genogroup I and II), and sapoviruses were detected in all 12 concentrated samples, whereas astroviruses were not detected in August and September and hepatitis A and E viruses were not detected at all. Clostridium difficile was detected in all samples and altogether 121 strains were isolated and grouped into 32 different ribotypes of which 014/020 and 010 were most prevalent. Pathogens detected in WWTP effluent partially reflect the epidemiological situation of enteric viruses and C. difficile in human population and open the discussion on implementation of possible techniques for virus and bacteria removal from WWTP effluent prior to release into the surface water system.     

Ecotoxic effect of phenanthrene on nitrifying bacteria in soils of different properties

Information on ecotoxicity of organic contaminants, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), in terrestrial environment is needed for establishing soil quality criteria and for risk assessment purposes. An ecotoxic effect of a model PAH compound (phenanthrene) toward soils microorganisms (nitrifying bacteria) was evaluated in 50 different soils. The soil samples were collected from agricultural land in four regions of Poland with varying levels of industrialization (Slaskie, Dolnoslaskie, Podlaskie, and Lubelskie voievodeships). Soils were characterized for basic physicochemical properties (texture, organic matter content, pH(KCl), total nitrogen content, total sorption capacity) and the content of contaminants including PAHs (73-800 microg kg(-1)), Pb (6-720 mg kg(-1)), and Zn (9-667 mg kg(-1)). Ecotoxicity of phenanthrene (applied at 10, 100, 500, and 1000 mg kg(-1)) to soils microorganisms was evaluated in laboratory studies in control conditions (incubation of soils for 7 d at 20 +/- 2 degrees C). Nitrification potential was used as the ecotoxicity measurements end point. The EC50 values (146-1670 mg kg(-1)) calculated from the square root-X linear regression model differed significantly in various soils, although it was difficult to establish a causative relationship between soil physicochemical characteristic and phenanthrene toxicity. A significant factor in the assessment of soils vulnerability to the effect of phenanthrene was level of soil contamination, particularly with PAHs. Soils with previous contamination were more susceptible (mean EC50, 325 mg kg(-1)) than soils from uncontaminated, rural areas (mean EC50, 603 mg kg(-1)).