Accounting for Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Case Study of Hector's Dolphin Mortality due to Gillnet Entanglement

Abstract: Uncertainties about biological data and human effects often delay decisions on management of endangered species. Some decision makers argue that uncertainty about the risk posed to a species should lead to precautionary decisions, whereas others argue for delaying protective measures until there is strong evidence that a human activity is having a serious effect on the species. We have developed a method that incorporates uncertainty into the estimate of risk so that delays in action can be reduced or eliminated. We illustrate our method with an actual situation of a deadlock over how to manage Hector's dolphin ( Cephalorhychus hectori ). The management question is whether sufficient risk is posed to the dolphins by mortalities in gillnets to warrant regulating the fisheries. In our quantitative risk assessment, we use a population model that incorporates both demographic ( between-individual) and environmental ( between-year) stochasticity. We incorporate uncertainty in estimates of model parameters by repeatedly running the model for different combinations of survival and reproductive rates. Each value is selected at random from a probability distribution that represents the uncertainty in estimating that parameter. Before drawing conclusions, we perform sensitivity analyses to see whether model assumptions alter conclusions and to recommend priorities for future research. In this example, uncertainty did not alter the conclusion that there is a high risk of population decline if current levels of gillnet mortality continue. Sensitivity analyses revealed this to be a robust conclusion. Thus, our analysis removes uncertainty in the scientific data as an excuse for inaction.     

Fully Bio-Sourced Nylon 11/Raw Lignin Composites: Thermal and Mechanical Performances

Ecofriendly fully bio-composites based on polyamide 11 (PA11) and lignin have been prepared on the entire concentration range using a twin-screw extruder. In this work, PA11 was blended with lignin by direct extrusion technology without any chemical pre- or in-situ- modifications or physical pretreatments. The presence of various organic and inorganic impurities in the selected technical lignin have been maintained. The incorporation of this cheap renewable material from biomass in bio-based PA11 was inspected by an array of characterization tools. Also, the effect of the presence of lignin on the morphology and on the mechanical properties of the resulting materials was examined. Finally, in-situ investigation of structural evolution in PA11 induced by the presence of lignin was analyzed by Fast Scanning Chip Calorimetry.     

Metal contents of marine turtle eggs (Chelonia mydas; Lepidochelys olivacea) from the tropical eastern pacific and the implications for human health

Concentrations of eight elements were measured in Chelonia mydas and Lepidochelys olivacea eggs collected along the Pacific coast of Panama. Manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), and mercury (Hg) concentrations were similar to previous reports of these species from around the world, while lead (Pb) was lower than previous reports. Cd posed the highest health risk to people who regularly eat the eggs, with average consumption rates leading to target hazard quotients (THQ) of up to 0.35 ± 0.15. Our conclusions indicate that current turtle egg consumption in isolated, coastal Pacific communities may pose a health concern for young children, and that youth and young adults should limit their consumption of turtle eggs to reduce their total intake of nonessential metals.     

Expression of copper-resistance genes in microbial communities under copper stress and oxic/anoxic conditions

Microorganisms have developed copper-resistance mechanisms in order to survive in contaminated environments. The abundance and expression of the copper-resistance genes cusA and copA, encoding respectively for a Resistance Cell Nodulation protein and for a P-type ATP-ase pump, was assessed along a gradient of copper concentration in microcosms prepared from Seine estuary mudflat sediment. We demonstrated that the abundance of copA and cusA genes decreased with the increase of copper concentration and that cusA gene was up to ten times higher than the copA gene. Only the copA gene was expressed in both oxic and anoxic conditions. The abundance and activity of the microbial community remained constant whatever the concentrations of copper along the gradient. The molecular phylogeny of the two copper-resistance genes was studied and revealed that the increase of copper increased the diversity of copA and cusA gene sequences.     

The New Zealand experience of varroa invasion highlights research opportunities for Australia

The Varroa mite (Varroa destructor) is implicated as a major disease factor in honey bee (Apis mellifera) populations worldwide. Honey bees are extensively relied upon for pollination services, and in countries such as New Zealand and Australia where honey bees have been introduced specifically for commercial pollinator services, the economic effects of any decline in honey bee numbers are predicted to be profound. V. destructor established in New Zealand in 2000 but as yet, Australia remains Varroa-free. Here we analyze the history of V. destructor invasion and spread in New Zealand and discuss the likely long-term impacts. When the mite was discovered in New Zealand, it was considered too well established for eradication to be feasible. Despite control efforts, V. destructor has since spread throughout the country. Today, assessing the impacts of the arrival of V. destructor in this country is compromised by a paucity of data on pollinator communities as they existed prior to invasion. Australia’s Varroa-free status provides a rare and likely brief window of opportunity for the global bee research community to gain understanding of honey bee-native pollinator community dynamics prior to Varroa invasion.     

Dissolved phosphorus transport from soil to surface water in catchments with different land use

Diffuse phosphorus (P) export from agricultural land to surface waters is a significant environmental problem. It is critical to determine the natural background P losses from diffuse sources, but their identification and quantification is difficult. In this study, three headwater catchments with differing land use (arable, pasture and forest) were monitored for 3 years to quantify exports of dissolved (<0.45 µm) reactive P and total dissolved P. Mean total P exports from the arable catchment ranged between 0.08 and 0.28 kg ha^?1 year^?1. Compared with the reference condition (forest), arable land and pasture exported up to 11-fold more dissolved P. The contribution of dissolved (<0.45 µm) unreactive P was low to negligible in every catchment. Agricultural practices can exert large pressures on surface waters that are controlled by hydrological factors. Adapting policy to cope with these factors is needed for lowering these pressures in the future.     

Using Relative Risk to Compare the Effects of Aquatic Stressors at a Regional Scale

The regional-scale importance of an aquatic stressor depends both on its regional extent (i.e., how widespread it is) and on the severity of its effects in ecosystems where it is found. Sample surveys, such as those developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), are designed to estimate and compare the extents, throughout a large region, of elevated conditions for various aquatic stressors. In this article, we propose relative risk as a complementary measure of the severity of each stressor’s effect on a response variable that characterizes aquatic ecological condition. Specifically, relative risk measures the strength of association between stressor and response variables that can be classified as either “good” (i.e., reference) or “poor” (i.e., different from reference). We present formulae for estimating relative risk and its confidence interval, adapted for the unequal sample inclusion probabilities employed in EMAP surveys. For a recent EMAP survey of streams in five Mid-Atlantic states, we estimated the relative extents of eight stressors as well as their relative risks to aquatic macroinvertebrate assemblages, with assemblage condition measured by an index of biotic integrity (IBI). For example, a measure of excess sedimentation had a relative risk of 1.60 for macroinvertebrate IBI, with the meaning that poor IBI conditions were 1.6 times more likely to be found in streams having poor conditions of sedimentation than in streams having good sedimentation conditions. We show how stressor extent and relative risk estimates, viewed together, offer a compact and comprehensive assessment of the relative importances of multiple stressors.     

Forest resources and household welfare: Empirical evidence from North Central Vietnam

Using secondary data from a socio-economic quantitative household survey of the North Central region of Vietnam, the main aim of our study is to analyze the causal effect of forest resources on household income and poverty. Based on the observed characteristics of a forest-based livelihood and forest-related activities, we use a propensity score matching (PSM) method to control for potential bias arising from self-selection. The PSM results indicate that households with a forest-based livelihood had a higher level of income and lower poverty rates than did those without. Interestingly, our findings confirm that a forest-based livelihood offers much higher income than any other type of livelihood adopted by local households. Also, the poverty rate among households with a forest-based livelihood is lower than those earning non-labor income or engaged in wage/crop and crop livelihoods. Among households and provinces, we find varying opportunities deriving from forest resources, suggesting that there are potential barriers hindering local households from pursuing a forest livelihood or participating in some forest activities. Therefore, government policy and regulations on forest management should focus on improving the access of households to forest resources, while enhancing the sustainability of these resources.