Discussion

Environmental and Ecological Statistics -     

Averting behavior and the benefits of reduced soiling

The individual's choice of cleaning frequency is examined theoretically under assumptions more general than those of previous authors. The individual is assumed to maximize utility over “cleanliness” and a general commodity, where cleanliness is determined by frequency of cleaning and ambient pollution. Allowance is made for the possibility that the cost per cleaning episode is positively affected by pollution and negatively affected by the frequency of cleaning. The present framework is used to make comparisons and comments regarding the assumptions and results of Watson and Jaksch [J. Environ. Econ. Manag.9 (1982), 248–262] and Courant and Porter [J. Environ. Econ. Manag.8 (1981), 321–329].     

The prognostic factors in the prenatal diagnosis of the echogenic fetal lung

The prenatal diagnosis of an echogenic fetal lung (EFL) is now often made in the early second trimester using high-resolution ultrasound. This ultrasound appearance is usually caused by a congenital cystic adenomatoid lung malformation (CCAM), an intrapulmonary lung sequestration or obstruction of a major airway. In order to provide prognostic guidelines to parents who may be considering termination of a fetus with these findings, we have analysed a series of 11 cases diagnosed in our centre over the past 2 years in conjunction with 60 cases from major published series. The data suggest that in the absence of non-immune hydrops fetalis (NIHF) or other anomalies, the outcome for the fetuses is excellent, with over 90 per cent survival. Neither early diagnosis (24 weeks) nor the presence of mediastinal shift is a poor prognostic indicator. In addition, it appears that if NIHF is absent at diagnosis, the chance that it will develop as the pregnancy continues is small (6 per cent). Furthermore, there is a significant (up to 30 per cent) chance that this ultrasound finding will resolve in utero. The development of in utero fetal surgical techniques may be the only hope for those hydropic fetuses who appear to have a dismal prognosis.     

Risk for chromosome abnormality at amniocentesis following a child with a non-inherited chromosome aberration a european collaborative study on prenatal diagnoses 1981

Based on 2890 prenatal diagnoses from 12 European countries the risk for a chromosomally abnormal fetus at amniocentesis after the birth of a child with a chromosome abnormality has been estimated to be 1.3 per cent when the mother's age is 34 years or less at amniocentesis and 1.8 per cent if the mother is older. This risk does not depend on paternal age, and it is independent of the type of the chromosome abnormality of the index child. Some geographical heterogeneities were detected. Therefore, the overall risk has to be considered as a rough estimate. The chromosome constitution of the abnormal fetus differed from that of the index patient in 21 of 41 cases. Several explanations for the higher risk have been discussed. If the index child had trisomy 18, 13 or a sex chromosome abnormality, the fetus tended to be a female. If the index child was a trisomy 21, the fetal sex ratio was normal.     

Fuel breaks affect nonnative species abundance in Californian plant communities.

We evaluated the abundance of nonnative plants on fuel breaks and in adjacent untreated areas to determine if fuel treatments promote the invasion of nonnative plant species. Understanding the relationship between fuel treatments and nonnative plants is becoming increasingly important as federal and state agencies are currently implementing large fuel treatment programs throughout the United States to reduce the threat of wildland fire. Our study included 24 fuel breaks located across the State of California. We found that nonnative plant abundance was over 200% higher on fuel breaks than in adjacent wildland areas. Relative nonnative cover was greater on fuel breaks constructed by bulldozers (28%) than on fuel breaks constructed by other methods (7%). Canopy cover, litter cover, and duff depth also were significantly lower on fuel breaks constructed by bulldozers, and these fuel breaks had significantly more exposed bare ground than other types of fuel breaks. There was a significant decline in relative nonnative cover with increasing distance from the fuel break, particularly in areas that had experienced more numerous fires during the past 50 years, and in areas that had been grazed. These data suggest that fuel breaks could provide establishment sites for nonnative plants, and that nonnatives may invade surrounding areas, especially after disturbances such as fire or grazing. Fuel break construction and maintenance methods that leave some overstory canopy and minimize exposure of bare ground may be less likely to promote nonnative plants.     

Firm behavior under imperfectly enforceable pollution standards and taxes

Assuming expected profit maximization, the behavior of the firm under imperfectly enforceable pollution standards is examined. Among other results, it is found that cost subsidies can reduce the size of violation and amount of wastes, and that the shape of the expected penalty function determines the direction of the firm response to tighter standards. Under imperfectly enforceable pollution taxes, it is found, among other results, that the firm's actual level of wastes is independent of proportional changes in the expected penalty for pollution tax evasion, and that the marginal cost of actual waste reduction equals the unit tax on reported wastes. Some normative aspects of the results are discussed.     

A structural equation model analysis of postfire plant diversity in California shrublands.

This study investigates patterns of plant diversity following wildfires in fire-prone shrublands of California, seeks to understand those patterns in terms of both local and landscape factors, and considers the implications for fire management. Ninety study sites were established following extensive wildfires in 1993, and 1000-m(2) plots were used to sample a variety of parameters. Data on community responses were collected for five years following fire. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to relate plant species richness to plant abundance, fire severity, abiotic conditions, within-plot heterogeneity, stand age, and position in the landscape. Temporal dynamics of average richness response was also modeled. Richness was highest in the first year following fire, indicating postfire enhancement of diversity. A general decline in richness over time was detected, with year-to-year variation attributable to annual variations in precipitation. Peak richness in the landscape was found where (1) plant abundance was moderately high, (2) within-plot heterogeneity was high, (3) soils were moderately low in nitrogen, high in sand content, and with high rock cover, (4) fire severity was low, and (5) stands were young prior to fire. Many of these characteristics were correlated with position in the landscape and associated conditions. We infer from the SEM results that postfire richness in this system is strongly influenced by local conditions and that these conditions are, in turn, predictably related to landscape-level conditions. For example, we observed that older stands of shrubs were characterized by more severe fires, which were associated with a low recovery of plant cover and low richness. These results may have implications for the use of prescribed fire in this system if these findings extrapolate to prescribed burns as we would expect.     

Sequestration of priority pollutant PAHs from sediment pore water employing semipermeable membrane devices

Semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs) were employed to sample sediment pore water in static exposure studies under controlled laboratory conditions using (control pond and formulated) sediments fortified with 15 priority pollutant polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PPPAHs). The sediment fortification level of 750 ng/g was selected on the basis of what might be detected in a sediment sample from a contaminated area. The sampling interval consisted of 0, 4, 7, 14, and 28 days for each study. The analytical methodologies, as well as the extraction and sample cleanup procedures used in the isolation, characterization, and quantitation of 15 PPPAHs at different fortification levels in SPMDs, water, and sediment were reported previously (Williamson, M.S. Thesis, University of Missouri-Columbia, USA; Williamson et al., Chemosphere (This issue--PII: S0045-6535(02)00394-6)) and used for this project. Average (mean) extraction recoveries for each PPPAH congener in each matrix are reported and discussed. No procedural blank extracts (controls) were found to contain any PPPAH residues above the method quantitation limit, therefore, no matrix interferences were detected. The focus of this publication is to demonstrate the ability to sequester environmental contaminants, specifically PPPAHs, from sediment pore water using SPMDs and two different types of fortified sediment.     

Weekday/weekend ozone differences: what can we learn from them?

A national analysis of weekday/weekend ozone (O3) differences demonstrates significant variation across the country. Weekend 1-hr or 8-hr maximum O3 varies from 15% lower than weekday levels to 30% higher. The weekend O3 increases are primarily found in and around large coastal cities in California and large cities in the Midwest and Northeast Corridor. Both the average and the 95th percentile of the daily 1-hr and 8-hr maxima exhibit the same general pattern. Many sites that have elevated O3 also have higher O3 on weekends even though traffic and O3 precursor levels are substantially reduced on weekends. Detailed studies of this phenomenon indicate that the primary cause of the higher O3 on weekends is the reduction in oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions on weekends in a volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemical regime. In contrast, the lower O3 on weekends in other locations is probably a result of NOx reductions in a NOx-limited regime. The NOx reduction explanation is supported by a wide range of ambient analyses and several photochemical modeling studies. Changes in the timing and location of emissions and meteorological factors play smaller roles in weekend O3 behavior. Weekday/weekend temperature differences do not explain the weekend effect but may modify it.