Empirical and theoretical evidence concerning the response of the earth's ice and snow cover to a global temperature increase

As a guide to the possible effects of a CO₂-induced warming on the cryosphere, we review the effects of three warm periods in the past, and out theoretical understanding of fluctuations in mountain glaciers, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, ground ice, sea ice and seasonal snow cover. Between 1890 and 1940 A.D. the glaciated area in Switzerland was reduced by over 25%. In the Hypsithermal, at about 6000 BP, ground ice in Eurasia retreated northward by several hundred kilometres. In the interglacial Stage 5e, at about 120 000 BP, global sea-level rose by over 6 m. Fluctuations of mountain glaciers depend on mesoscale “weather” and on their mechanical response to it. Any melting of the Greenland ice sheet is likely to be slow in human terms. The West Antarctic ice sheet (its base below sea-level) is susceptible to an ungrounding, and such an event may have been the cause of the sea-level rise above. The East Antarctic ice sheet is susceptible to mechanical “surges”, which might be triggered by a warming at its margin. Both an ungrounding and a surge might occupy less than 100 yr, and are potetially the most important ice changes in human terms. Modelling studies suggest that a 5°C warming would remove the Arctic pack ice in summer, and this may be the most significant effect for further climatic change.     

Safety Recommendations — The engine that drives change

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) considers the recommendations it makes to prevent accidents and improve the safety of the United States transportation system to be its most important product.In its 25-year history the NTSB has made almost 9,000 safety recommendations covering needed improvements in all the modes of transportation to more than 1,250 recipients. These recommendations are made to anyone the NTSB believes can make the change that is necessary to improve safety. Recommendations have been directed to federal, State and local government agencies, private transportation companies, labor unions, trade associations and others.Overall, more than 80 percent of the NTSB's safety recommendations have been accepted by the recipients and the changes called for have been implemented. This has had a very significant positive impact on the safety of the US transportation system. The NTSB is very proud of this record. The changes that have taken place as a result of the NTSB's recommendations have saved thousands of lives and prevented many accidents.How has the NTSB achieved such a good record? The basic foundation and most important reason for this achievement is the NTSB's independence. This independence lends the NTSB credibility. Recipients of the NTSB's recommendations are more willing to carefully and seriously consider taking the action recommended. The second essential reason for the NTSB's credibility is the highly competent, technical qualifications of its investigators and the thoroughness of its investigations and studies. The NTSB also is very careful and prudent in making its recommendations. Each proposed recommendation is carefully evaluated to make sure it is practical, feasible and capable of being implemented. The credibility of the NTSB has grown over the years, and along with that has come an increase in the acceptance rate of the recommendations.This paper will describe the NTSB's safety recommendation program, how it achieves improved safety, and its important elements, such as the Most Wanted Safety Recommendation Program and the Safety Recommendation Information System.     

Comparisons of pastoralists perceptions about rangeland resource utilisation in the Middle Awash Valley of Ethiopia

Pastoralism is the most dominant land use form in the arid rangelands of Sub-Saharan Africa, but this rangeland-based lifestyle is under threat. As a consequence a study was conducted in the Middle Awash Valley of Ethiopia with the main objectives of assessing and comparing the broad perceptions of two pastoral groups (the Oromo ethnic group living in Kereyu-Fantale and the Afar ethnic group living in Awash-Fantale) on the usage of the existing rangeland resources, and their views on constraints and possible solutions. Data were collected from 90 Oromo and 55 Afar households. Despite the difference in ethnicity both of these groups share common problems. They derive their main income from the sale of animals and animal products, but with the difference that milk products rank first in the case of the Afar and last in the case of the Oromo. Both pastoral groups depend heavily on native grasses for animal feed and to a lesser extent on woody plants as a source of browse. The majority of respondents were of the opinion that the condition of the rangelands is poor, mainly due to overgrazing, droughts and increases in the human population. Availability of water is also regarded as a problem, mainly by the Oromo. Migration is the first measure taken to solve shortages of livestock feed, but many of the pastoralists replied that migration is an undesirable practise which is mostly done out of necessity. Because of the limited resources most respondents of both groups still prefer communal land tenure where resources are shared. It is concluded that the problems facing the pastoralists in the Middle Awash Valley have been created over many years and the solutions will also require time. With the current approach of the communal grazing systems, sustainable utilisation of the rangeland ecosystem is not possible. Solutions to the poor condition of the existing rangelands will require a definite commitment and full participation not only of the pastoralists, but also of government and non-governmental organisations that are directly or indirectly involved in rangeland resources utilisation, management, conservation and other related activities.     

Monitoring of iodinated X-ray contrast media in surface water

A monitoring programme was carried out in order to determine iodinated X-ray contrast media (ICM) in the River Danube and to investigate the raw water quality for drinking water production at Langenau waterworks. The study revealed that the maximum concentrations of ICM (over 500 ng l(-1) for diatrizoic acid and iopamidol) were found in 2h-composite samples taken from the downstream of the Ulm/Neu-Ulm metropolitan area. By means of a concentration profile over one month the highest ICM concentrations were observed on weekdays. The extended data evaluation with principal component analysis shows that the upstream and downstream samples had different pattern of variations in ICM concentration and also demonstrates a clear change in ICM composition by the discharge of municipal wastewater. In addition to load profiles of ICM, time-dependent plots of principal component 1 exhibited peaks, indicating a short-term discharge of ICM between the two sampling sites. In conclusion, a point source for ICM contamination between the sampling sites in Ulm upstream and Leipheim downstream seems to be the reasonable explanation for peak ICM concentrations. Due to the observed high variations of ICM concentrations in river, the evaluation of natural waters by means of a single analysis is not representative.     

Lattice-based methods for regression and density estimation on complicated multidimensional regions

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - This paper illustrates the use of diffusion kernels to estimate smooth density and regression functions defined on highly complex domains. We generalize...     

Modelling gas release event behaviour in hazardous waste tanks

Certain radioactive waste storage tanks at the United States Department of Energy Hanford facilities continuously generate gases as a result of radiolysis and chemical reactions. The congealed sludge in these tanks traps the gases beneath it and causes the level of the waste within the tanks to rise. The waste level continues to rise until the sludge loses its buoyancy and rolls over, changing places with fluid on top. During a rollover, the trapped gases are released, resulting in a sudden drop in the waste level. This is known as a gas release event (GRE). After a GRE, the waste re-congeals and gas again accumulates, leading to another GRE. We are interested in the time between consecutive GREs. Understanding the probabilistic behaviour of the time between consecutive GREs is important because the hydrogen and nitrous oxide gases released during a GRE are flammable and the ammonia that is released is a health risk. From a safety perspective, activity around such waste tanks should be halted when a GRE is imminent. With a credible probability model for the time between consecutive GREs, we can establish time windows in which waste tank research and maintenance activities can be safely performed. We discuss the application of non-linear time series models to this problem.     

Probability distributions and statistical inference for axial data

Observations on axes which lack information on the direction of propagation are referred to as axial data. Such data are often encountered in enviromental sciences, e.g. observations on propagations of cracks or on faults in mining walls. Even though such observations are recorded as angles, circular probability models are inappropriate for such data since the constraint that observations lie only in [0, π) needs to be enforced. Probability models for such axial data are argued here to have a general structure stemming from that of wrapping a circular distribution on a semi-circle. In particular, we consider the most popular circular model, the von Mises or circular normal distribution, and derive the corresponding axial normal distribution. Certain properties of this distribution are established. Maximum likelihood estimation of its parameters are shown to be surprisingly, in contrast to trigonometric moment estimation, numerically quite appealing. Finally we illustrate our results by several real life axial data sets. Received: September 2004/ Revised: December 2004     

A role forAmanita muscaria L. in the circulation of cadmium and vanadium in a non-polluted woodland

The sporophore of the fungusAmanita muscaria L. contains greatiy elevated levels of cadmium (29.9 g g^–1 dwt) and vanadium (344.9 g g^–1 dwt) in comparison with the soil in a birch woodland (total (HNO₃-extractabie Cd 0.4 g g^–1 dwt, V 11.7 g g^–1 dwt). The significance of this remarkable concentration of normally rare and dispersed elements in terms of their circulation in the woodland has been investigated. Both elements are released from sporophore tissue in a form which can be taken up by a test plant (lettuce), cultivated in the woodland soil amended with different quantities of sporophore tissue, Cadmium levels in all plant tissues were elevated in comparison to the non-amended controls; only root vanadium levels responded to the amendment of the soil. The results are discussed in terms of their significance for the natural cycling of both elements. It is calculated that an abundant population of sporophores could circulate 1.4% of the total cadmium and 0.65% of the total vanadium pool found in the litter layer and 0–5 cm soil horizon in the sampled woodland over a period of 14 days (mean life span of a sporophore).