PRECIPITATION DIFFERENCES AMONGST GCMs USED FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT1

ABSTRACT: Two general circulation models (GCMs) used in the U.S. national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change (CGCM1 and HadCM2) show a large increase in precipitation in the future over the southwestern U.S., particularly during winter. This precipitation increase is an extension of a larger region of increased precipitation in the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of North America that is associated with a deepened and southward-shifted Aleutian Low, a weaker subtropical high, and warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The models differ in their simulation of precipitation anomalies over the southeastern U.S., with CGCM1 showing drier conditions and HadCM2 showing wetter conditions in the future. While both models show decreased frequency of Atlantic storms, consistent with decreased meridional and land/sea temperature gradients, the more coastal position of the storm track in CGCM1 results in less precipitation than modern along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. During summer, differences in land surface models within the two GCMs sometimes lead to differences in soil moisture that feed back to the precipitation over land due to available moisture.     

Use of carrion fly iDNA metabarcoding to monitor invasive and native mammals

Severely fragmented habitats increase the risk of extirpation of native mammal populations through isolation, increased edge effects, and predation. Therefore, monitoring the movement of mammal populations through anthropogenically altered landscapes can inform conservation. We used metabarcoding of invertebrate-derived DNA (iDNA) from carrion flies (Calliphoridae and Sarcophagidae) to track mammal populations in the wheat belt of southwestern Australia, where widespread clearing for agriculture has removed most of the native perennial vegetation and replaced it with an agricultural system. We investigated whether the localization of the iDNA signal reflected the predicted distribution of 4 native species—echidna (Tachyglossus aculeatus), numbat (Myrmecobius fasciatus), woylie (Bettongia penicillata), and chuditch (Dasyurus geoffroii)—and 2 non-native, invasive mammal species—fox (Vulpes vulpes) and feral cat (Felis catus). We collected bulk iDNA samples (n = 150 samples from 3428 carrion flies) at 3 time points from 3 conservation reserves and 35 road edges between them. We detected 14 of the 40 mammal species known from the region, including our target species. Most detections of target taxa were in conservation reserves. There were a few detections from road edges. We detected foxes and feral cats throughout the study area, including all conservation reserves. There was a significant difference between the diversity (F_3, 98 = 5.91, p < 0.001) and composition (F_3, 43 = 1.72, p < 0.01) of taxa detections on road edges and conservation reserves. Conservation reserves hosted more native biodiversity than road edges. Our results suggest that the signals from iDNA reflect the known distribution of target mammals in this region. The development of iDNA methods shows promise for future noninvasive monitoring of mammals. With further development, iDNA metabarcoding could inform decision-making related to conservation of endangered taxa, invasive species management, and impacts of habitat fragmentation.     

Diplomacy for science: strategies to promote international collaboration

Technology innovation is an increasingly globalized exercise with dramatic consequences for scientific and diplomatic goals alike, and requires enhanced participation and integration of scientists and science-minded diplomats within diplomatic missions to advance shared policy goals. This more general problem is addressed in the present article by focusing on recent collaborations between U.S. and German scientists, including several of the coauthors.     

Multi-criteria risk management with the use of <Emphasis Type="Italic">DecernsMCDA</Emphasis>: methods and case studies

Emerging challenges of risk management, environmental protection, and land-use planning requires integration of stakeholder values and expert judgment. The process of decision making in situation of high uncertainty can be assisted through the use of decision support systems (DSSs). Such DSSs are often based on tools for spatial data representation (GIS) and environmental models that are integrated using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). This paper presents DecernsMCDA implementing all major types of multi-criteria methods and tools (AHP, MAUT, Outranking) under the same user interface. In addition to providing ability for testing model uncertainty associated with selection of specific MCDA algorithms, DecernsMCDA implements new algorithms for parameter uncertainty analysis based on probabilistic approaches and fuzzy sets. The paper illustrates application of DecernsMCDA for selecting remedial alternative at radiologically contaminated sites.     

How contamination sources and soil properties can influence the Cd and Pb bioavailability to snails

To better understand the fate of metals in the environment, numerous parameters must be studied, such as the soil properties and the different sources of contamination for the organisms. Among bioindicators of soil quality, the garden snail (Cantareus aspersus) integrates multiple sources (e.g. soil, plant) and routes (e.g. digestive, cutaneous) of contamination. However, the contribution of each source on metal bioavailability and how soil properties influence these contributions have never been studied when considering the dynamic process of bioavailability. Using accumulation kinetics, this study showed that the main assimilation source of Cd was lettuce (68 %), whereas the main source of Pb was the soil (90 %). The plant contribution increased in response to a 2-unit soil pH decrease. Unexpectedly, an increase in the soil contribution to metal assimilation accompanied an increase in the organic matter (OM) content of the soil. For both metals, no significant excretion and influence of source on excretion have been modelled either during exposure or depuration. This study highlights how the contribution of different sources to metal bioavailability changes based on changes in soil parameters, such as pH and OM, and the complexity of the processes that modulate metal bioavailability.     

Intra-annual dynamics of water stress in the central Indian Highlands from 2002 to 2012

India’s continued development depends on the availability of adequate water. This paper applies a data-driven approach to estimate the intra-annual dynamics of water stress across the central Indian Highlands over the period 2002–2012. We investigate the spatial distribution of water demanding sectors including industry, domestic, irrigation, livestock and thermal power generation. We also examine the vulnerability of urban centers within the study area to water stress. We find that 74 % of the area of the central Indian Highlands experienced water stress (defined as demand exceeding supply) for 4 or more months out of the year. The rabi (winter) season irrigation drives the intra-annual water stress across the landscape. The Godavari basin experiences the most surface water stress while the Ganga and Narmada basins experience water stress due to groundwater deficits as a result of rabi irrigation. All urban centers experience water stress at some time during a year. Urban centers in the Godavari basin are considerably water stressed, for example, Achalpur, Nagpur and Chandrapur experience water stress 8 months out of the year. Irrigation dominates water use accounting for 95 % of the total water demand, with substantial increases in irrigated land over the last decade. Managing land use to promote hydrologic functions will become increasingly important as water stress increases.     

Conservatism vs. conservationism: differential influences of social identities on beliefs about fracking

ABSTRACT

Although recent expansions in hydraulic fracking operations across the United States have led to greater news coverage and attention from the public, overall understanding remains fairly low. For some, relevant social identities, including environmental or political, may provide a short cut to becoming informed about fracking, or to determining what they believe about it and how that influences their positions on fracking policies. Social identity influence frameworks provide an approach to understanding the relationships between belief and identity, which this study investigates through its affiliational and attitudinal components. National survey data are used to model pathways from environmental and political identities to beliefs about risks associated with fracking. Environmental attitudes significantly predicted belief that fracking has health risks, and mediated a relationship from environmental group affiliation, but environmental information was not significant. Ideology had direct and indirect effects, through partisan media use, while partisanship had direct effects on beliefs about environmental risks.     

Sustainability assessment of water governance alternatives: the case of Guanacaste Costa Rica

Many new forms of water governance are emerging in response to economic and social needs and wants, as well as water-related problems such as scarcity, injustice, and conflict. However, there is little evidence on how sustainable these governance regimes are, which would be critical for making progress toward sustainable and just water governance. In this article, we present the results of a transdisciplinary multi-criteria sustainability assessment of alternative governance regimes for Guanacaste Province, Costa Rica. The assessment specifies differences between sustainable and unsustainable governance regimes, while also pinpointing how the current water governance regime performs in comparison to those alternatives. The findings indicate that those governance regimes with just and deliberative stakeholder involvement, secure groundwater reserves, and healthy dry tropical ecosystems were considered sustainable and just. In contrast, the current state of water governance was found to be at high risk of digressing toward unsustainable systems where rural communities lack rights and influence, where economies favor agro-industry and high impact tourism at the expense of rural livelihoods, and where water scarcity overwhelms weak governance. This assessment study clarifies water sustainability goals, asserts the need for transformational change, and offers a pragmatic foundation for actions toward sustainable water governance.     

Investigating the strategic antecedents of agility in humanitarian logistics

This study investigates the strategic antecedents of operational agility in humanitarian logistics. It began by identifying the particular actions to be taken at the strategic level of a humanitarian organisation to support field‐level agility. Next, quantitative data (n=59) were collected on four strategic‐level capabilities (being purposeful, action‐focused, collaborative, and learning‐oriented) and on operational agility (field responsiveness and flexibility). Using a quantitative analysis, the study tested the relationship between organisational capacity building and operational agility and found that the four strategic‐level capabilities are fundamental building blocks of agility. Collectively they account for 52 per cent of the ability of humanitarian logisticians to deal with ongoing changes and disruptions in the field. This study emphasises the need for researchers and practitioners to embrace a broader perspective of agility in humanitarian logistics. In addition, it highlights the inherently strategic nature of agility, the development of which involves focusing simultaneously on multiple drivers.     

Risk factors for mortality during the 2002 landslides in Chuuk, Federated States of Micronesia

This study examines health effects resulting from landslides in Chuuk during Tropical Storm Chata'an in July 2002, and suggests strategies to prevent future mortality. In August 2002, we conducted a cross-sectional survey to identify risk factors for mortality during landslides, which included 52 survivors and 40 surrogates for 43 decedents to identify risk factors for death. Findings suggest that 1) females had a higher mortality rate from this event than males, and 2) children aged 5–14 years had a 10-fold increase in mortality when compared with annual mortality rates from all causes. Awareness of landslides occurring elsewhere and knowledge of natural warning signs were significantly associated with lower risks of death; being outside during landslides was not associated with reduced mortality. In Chuuk, improving communication systems during tropical storms and increasing knowledge of natural warnings can reduce the risk for mortality during landslides.