A strong test of a maximum entropy model of trait-based community assembly

We evaluate the predictive power and generality of Shipley's maximum entropy (maxent) model of community assembly in the context of 96 quadrats over a 120-km2 area having a large (79) species pool and strong gradients. Quadrats were sampled in the herbaceous understory of ponderosa pine forests in the Coconino National Forest, Arizona, U.S.A. The maxent model accurately predicted species relative abundances when observed community-weighted mean trait values were used as model constraints. Although only 53% of the variation in observed relative abundances was associated with a combination of 12 environmental variables, the maxent model based only on the environmental variables provided highly significant predictive ability, accounting for 72% of the variation that was possible given these environmental variables. This predictive ability largely surpassed that of nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) or detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) ordinations. Using cross-validation with 1000 independent runs, the median correlation between observed and predicted relative abundances was 0.560 (the 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles were 0.045 and 0.825). The qualitative predictions of the model were also noteworthy: dominant species were correctly identified in 53% of the quadrats, 83% of rare species were correctly predicted to have a relative abundance of < 0.05, and the median predicted relative abundance of species actually absent from a quadrat was 5 x 10(-5).     

The influence of land use and climate change on forest biomass and composition in Massachusetts, USA

Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate impacts on forest growth and composition. We conducted a simulation experiment to evaluate regional forest change in Massachusetts, USA over the next 50 years (2010-2060). Our objective was to estimate, assuming a linear continuation of recent trends, the relative and interactive influence of continued growth and succession, climate change, forest conversion to developed uses, and timber harvest on live aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species composition. We examined 20 years of land use records in relation to social and biophysical explanatory variables and used regression trees to create "probability-of-conversion" and "probability-of-harvest" zones. We incorporated this information into a spatially interactive forest landscape simulator to examine forest dynamics as they were affected by land use and climate change. We conducted simulations in a full-factorial design and found that continued forest growth and succession had the largest effect on AGB, increasing stores from 181.83 Tg to 309.56 Tg over 50 years. The increase varied from 49% to 112% depending on the ecoregion within the state. Compared to simulations with no climate or land use, forest conversion reduced gains in AGB by 23.18 Tg (or 18%) over 50 years. Timber harvests reduced gains in AGB by 5.23 Tg (4%). Climate change (temperature and precipitation) increased gains in AGB by 17.3 Tg (13.5%). Pinus strobus and Acer rubrum were ranked first and second, respectively, in terms of total AGB throughout all simulations. Climate change reinforced the dominance of those two species. Timber harvest reduced Quercus rubra from 10.8% to 9.4% of total AGB, but otherwise had little effect on composition. Forest conversion was generally indiscriminate in terms of species removal. Under the naive assumption that future land use patterns will resemble the recent past, we conclude that continued forest growth and recovery will be the dominant mechanism driving forest dynamics over the next 50 years, and that while climate change may enhance growth rates, this will be more than offset by land use, primarily forest conversion to developed uses.     

Interactions between chloride and sulfate or silica removals using an advanced lime-aluminum softening process.

An advanced softening process called the ultra-high lime with aluminum process (UHLA) was initiated in this research. The UHLA process has the ability to remove sulfate, silica, and chloride from waters such as recycled cooling water and desalination brines. Furthermore, it can remove other scale-forming materials, such as calcium, magnesium, carbonate, and phosphate. The purpose of this paper is to study the interactions among chloride, sulfate, and silica in the UHLA process. Results of equilibrium experiments indicated that sulfate is preferentially removed over chloride. Final chloride concentration increased with increasing initial sulfate concentration. However, initial chloride concentration was found to have negligible effect on final sulfate concentration. Silica was found to have only a small effect on chloride removal.     

Alternatives to statistical hypothesis testing in ecology: a guide to self teaching.

Statistical methods emphasizing formal hypothesis testing have dominated the analyses used by ecologists to gain insight from data. Here, we review alternatives to hypothesis testing including techniques for parameter estimation and model selection using likelihood and Bayesian techniques. These methods emphasize evaluation of weight of evidence for multiple hypotheses, multimodel inference, and use of prior information in analysis. We provide a tutorial for maximum likelihood estimation of model parameters and model selection using information theoretics, including a brief treatment of procedures for model comparison, model averaging, and use of data from multiple sources. We discuss the advantages of likelihood estimation, Bayesian analysis, and meta-analysis as ways to accumulate understanding across multiple studies. These statistical methods hold promise for new insight in ecology by encouraging thoughtful model building as part of inquiry, providing a unified framework for the empirical analysis of theoretical models, and by facilitating the formal accumulation of evidence bearing on fundamental questions.     

Cultural Theory and integrated assessment

Most scientific work, integrated assessment included, tries to avoid bias. Cultural Theory, however, suggests that bias is unavoidable, and it predicts the various biases that are possible, the social conditions under which each will occur and the essentially complex nature of their interaction. If Cultural Theory is right (and examples from energy modelling and human land use in mountain ecosystems suggest that it is) then it is important that it and integrated assessment come together. The paper begins by explaining how this has, in fact, been happening, and then explores the implications of this for integrated assessment. Cultural Theory, in completing the fourfold typology of forms of social solidarity that is implicit in the classic markets‐and‐hierarchies distinction, gives us human systems that are complex: non‐linear, indeterministic, far from equilibrium, highly sensitive to initial conditions, and with future states that are unpredictable. Since the same has now been done to the classic ecological distinction between pioneer and climax communities, we find ourselves trying to manage a system, of which we ourselves are part, that is not manageable in the way that simple systems are manageable. Coming to terms with that new understanding, and putting together the tool‐kit appropriate to policy in a complex world, is the task we face. “Always learning, never getting it right” captures the new understanding: a sentiment that many integrated assessors will find congenial. The new tool‐kit, however, with its emphasis on reflexivity, on scenario planning and on micro and macro each as the cause of the other, presents more of a challenge.     

Sectoralization of an Integrated Coastal Management Programme: A Case Study in Madagascar

This paper focuses on integrated environmental management and shows why emphasis should be put on implementation issues. The authors take the example of integrated coastal management (ICM) and analyse a case study they recently conducted in Madagascar, where an ambitious ICM programme is being implemented. They explain a strong perverse mechanism called sectoralization, which appears to threaten many integration efforts and is a good example of what is at stake with the implementation of the integration concept. They conclude especially that integrated environmental management should not be considered as the only modern form of environmental action, and that a certain type of case study is now needed to analyse existing environmental management systems before designing integration programmes.     

PFAS Experts Symposium: Statements on regulatory policy,chemistry and analytics,toxicology, transport/fate,and remediation for per‐ and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) contamination issues

Sixty leading members of the scientific, engineering, regulatory, and legal communities assembled for the PFAS Experts Symposium in Arlington, Virginia on May 20 and 21, 2019 to discuss issues related to per‐ and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) based on the quickly evolving developments of PFAS regulations, chemistry and analytics, transport and fate concepts, toxicology, and remediation technologies.  The Symposium created a venue for experts with various specialized skills to provide opinions and trade perspectives on existing and new approaches to PFAS assessment and remediation in light of lessons learned managing other contaminants encountered over the past four decades. The following summarizes several consensus points developed as an outcome of the Symposium:

• Regulatory and policy issues: The response by many states and the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) to media exposure and public pressure related to PFAS contamination is to relatively quickly initiate programs to regulate PFAS sites. This includes the USEPA establishing relatively low lifetime health advisory levels for PFAS in drinking water and even more stringent guidance and standards in several states. In addition, if PFAS are designated as hazardous substances at the federal level, as proposed by several Congressional bills, there could be wide‐reaching effects including listing of new Superfund sites solely for PFAS, application of stringent state standards, additional characterization and remediation at existing sites, reopening of closed sites, and cost renegotiation among PRPs.
• Chemistry and analytics: PFAS analysis is confounded by the lack of regulatory‐approved methods for most PFAS in water and all PFAS in solid media and air, interference with current water‐based analytical methods if samples contain high levels of suspended solids, and sample collection and analytical interference due to the presence of PFAS in common consumer products, sampling equipment, and laboratory materials.
• Toxicology and risk: Uncertainties remain related to human health and ecological effects for most PFAS; however, regulatory standards and guidance are being established incorporating safety factors that result in part per trillion (ppt) cleanup objectives. Given the thousands of PFAS that may be present in the environment, a more appropriate paradigm may be to develop toxicity criteria for groups of PFAS rather than individual PFAS.
• Transport and fate: The recalcitrance of many perfluoroalkyl compounds and the capability of some fluorotelomers to transform into perfluoroalkyl compounds complicate conceptual site models at many PFAS sites, particularly those involving complex mixtures, such as firefighting foams. Research is warranted to better understand the physicochemical properties and corresponding transport and fate of most PFAS, of branched and linear isomers of the same compounds, and of the interactions of PFAS with other co‐contaminants such as nonaqueous phase liquids. Many PFAS exhibit complex transport mechanisms, particularly at the air/water interface, and it is uncertain whether traditional transport principles apply to the ppt levels important to PFAS projects. Existing analytical methods are sufficient when combined with the many advances in site characterization techniques to move rapidly forward at selected sites to develop and test process‐based conceptual site models.
• Existing remediation technologies and research: Current technologies largely focus on separation (sorption, ion exchange, or sequestration). Due to diversity in PFAS properties, effective treatment will likely require treatment trains. Monitored natural attenuation will not likely involve destructive reactions, but be driven by processes such as matrix diffusion, sorption, dispersion, and dilution.

The consensus message from the Symposium participants is that PFAS present far more complex challenges to the environmental community than prior contaminants. This is because, in contrast to chlorinated solvents, PFAS are severely complicated by their mobility, persistence, toxicological uncertainties, and technical obstacles to remediation—all under the backdrop of stringent regulatory and policy developments that vary by state and will be further driven by USEPA. Concern was expressed about the time, expense, and complexity required to remediate PFAS sites and whether the challenges of PFAS warrant alternative approaches to site cleanups, including the notion that adaptive management and technical impracticability waivers may be warranted at sites with expansive PFAS plumes. A paradigm shift towards receptor protection rather than broad scale groundwater/aquifer remediation may be appropriate.