Persistence models for mark-recapture

The stable of models available for analyzing mark-recapture data (Otis et al. Wild Momogr 66:135, 1978) includes those having behavioral characteristics, time variation, heterogeneity, along with combinations of those characteristics. This paper proposes use of a series of models based on the persistence model of Ramsey and Usner (Biometrics 59:331–339, 2003). We show that persistence can be modeled in combination with behavior and with time variation. We apply the persistence model to situations in which capture occasions are not equally-spaced in time. Two case studies illustrate the use of these extended persistence models.     

Studying dispersal at the landscape scale: efficient combination of population surveys and capture-recapture data

Researchers often rely on capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data to study animal dispersal in the wild. Yet their spatial coverage often does not encompass the entire dispersal range of the study individuals, sometimes producing misleading results. Information contained in population surveys and variation in population spatial structure can be used to overcome this issue. We build an integrated model in a multisite context in which CMR data are only collected at a subset of sites, but numbers of breeding pairs are counted at all sites. In a Black-headed Gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus population, the integrated-modeling approach induces an increase in precision for the demographic parameters of interest (variances, on average, were decreased by 20%) and provides a more precise extrapolation of results from the CMR data to the whole population. Patterns of condition-dependent dispersal are therefore made easier to detect, and we obtain evidence for colony-size dependence in recruitment, dispersal, and breeding success. These results suggest that first-time breeders disperse to small colonies in order to recruit earlier. The exchange of experienced breeders between colonies appears as a main determinant of the observed variation in colony sizes.     

A phenomenological approach shows a high coherence of warming patterns in dimictic aquatic systems across latitude

To predict the coherence in local responses to large-scale climatic forcing among aquatic systems, we developed a generalized approach to compare long-term data of dimictic water bodies based on phenomenologically defined hydrographic events. These climate-sensitive phases (inverse stratification, spring overturn, early thermal stratification, summer stagnation) were classified in a dual code (cold/warm) based on threshold temperatures. Accounting for a latitudinal gradient in seasonal timing of phases derived from gradients in cumulative irradiation (2.2?days per degree latitude), we found a high spatial and temporal coherence in warm–cold patterns for six lakes (84?%) and the Baltic Sea (78?%), even when using the same thresholds for all sites. Similarity to CW-codes for the North Sea still was up to 72?%. The approach allows prediction of phase-specific warming trends and resulting instantaneous or time-delayed ecological responses. Exemplarily, we show that warming during early thermal stratification controls food-web-mediated effects on key species during summer.     

Correlates of bushmeat hunting among remote rural households in Gabon, Central Africa

Hunted wild animals (i.e., bushmeat) are a main source of protein for many rural populations in the tropics, and the unsustainable harvest of these animals puts both human food security and ecosystem functioning at risk. To understand the correlates of bushmeat consumption, we surveyed 1219 households in 121 rural villages near three newly established national parks in Gabon. Through the surveys we gathered information on bushmeat consumption, income, and material assests. In addition, we quantified land cover in a 5-km radius around the village center and distance of the village center to the nearest park boundary. Bushmeat was not a source of income for most households, but it was the primary animal protein consumed. Ninety-seven percent of households consumed bushmeat at least once during a survey period of 12 days. Income or wealth, land cover, distance of village to the nearest park boundary, and level of education of the head of the household were among the factors that significantly related to the likelihood of consuming any of the 10 most commonly consumed species of bushmeat. Household size was the predictor most strongly associated with quantities of bushmeat consumed and was negatively related to consumption. Total bushmeat consumption per adult male equivalent increased as household wealth increased and decreased as distance of villages to park boundaries increased. Bushmeat consumption at the household level was not related to unit values (i.e., price estimates for a good that typically does not have a market value; estimates derived from willingness to sell or trade the good for items of known price) of bushmeat or the price of chicken and fish as potential substitutes. The median consumption of bushmeat at the village level, however, was negatively related to village mean unit values of bushmeat across all species. Our results suggest that a lack of alternative protein sources motivated even the wealthiest among surveyed households to consume bushmeat. Providing affordable, alternative protein sources to all households would likely reduce unsustainable levels of bushmeat consumption in rural Gabon.     

Seed terminal velocity, wind turbulence, and demography drive the spread of an invasive tree in an analytical model

Little is known about the relative importance of mechanistic drivers of plant spread, particularly when long-distance dispersal (LDD) events occur. Most methods to date approach LDD phenomenologically, and all mechanistic models, with one exception, have been implemented through simulation. Furthermore, the few recent mechanistically derived spread models have examined the relative role of different dispersal parameters using simulations, and a formal analytical approach has not yet been implemented. Here we incorporate an analytical mechanistic wind dispersal model (WALD) into a demographic matrix model within an analytical integrodifference equation spread model. We carry out analytical perturbation analysis on the combined model to determine the relative effects of dispersal and demographic traits and wind statistics on the spread of an invasive tree. Models are parameterized using data collected in situ and tested using independent data on historical spread. Predicted spread rates and direction match well the two historical phases of observed spread. Seed terminal velocity has the greatest potential influence on spread rate, and three wind properties (turbulence coefficient, mean horizontal wind speed, and standard deviation of vertical wind speed) are also important. Fecundity has marginal importance for spread rate, but juvenile survival and establishment are consistently important. This coupled empirical/theoretical framework enables prediction of plant spread rate and direction using fundamental dispersal and demographic parameters and identifies the traits and environmental conditions that facilitate spread. The development of an analytical perturbation analysis for a mechanistic spread model will enable multispecies comparative studies to be easily implemented in the future.     

Invasive ecosystem engineer selects for different phenotypes of an associated native species

Invasive habitat-forming ecosystem engineers modify the abiotic environment and thus represent a major perturbation to many ecosystems. Because native species often persist in these invaded habitats but have no shared history with the ecosystem engineer, the engineer may impose novel selective pressure on native species. In this study, we used a phenotypic selection framework to determine whether an invasive habitat-forming ecosystem engineer (the seaweed Caulerpa taxifolia) selects for different phenotypes of a common co-occurring native species (the bivalve Anadara trapezia). Compared to unvegetated habitat, Caulerpa habitat has lower water flow, lower dissolved oxygen, and sediments are more silty and anoxic. We determined the performance consequences of variation in key functional traits that may be affected by these abiotic changes (shell morphology, gill mass, and palp mass) for Anadara transplanted into Caulerpa and unvegetated habitat. Both linear and nonlinear performance gradients in Anadara differed between habitats, and these gradients were stronger in Caulerpa compared to unvegetated sediment. Moreover, in Caulerpa alternate phenotypes performed well, and these phenotypes were different from the dominant phenotype in unvegetated sediment. By demonstrating that phenotype-performance gradients differ between habitats, we have highlighted a role for Caulerpa as an agent of selection on native species.     

Impacts of climate variability and human colonization on the vegetation of the Galápagos Islands

A high-resolution (2-9 year sampling interval) fossil pollen record from the Galápagos Islands, which spans the last 2690 years, reveals considerable ecosystem stability. Vegetation changes associated with independently derived histories of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation variability provided evidence of shifts in the relative abundance of individual species rather than immigration or extinction. Droughts associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly induced rapid ecological change that was followed by a reversion to the previous state. The paleoecological data suggested nonneutral responses to climatic forcing in this ecosystem prior to the period of human influence. Human impacts on the islands are evident in the record. A marked decline in long-term codominants of the pollen record, Alternanthera and Acalypha, produced a flora without modern analogue before 1930. Intensified animal husbandry after ca. 1930 may have induced the local extinction of Acalypha and Alternanthera. Reductions in populations of grazing animals in the 1970s and 1980s did not result in the return of the native flora, but in invasions by exotic species. After ca. 1970 the trajectory of habitat change accelerated, continuously moving the ecosystem away from the observed range of variability in the previous 2690 years toward a novel ecosystem. The last 40 years of the record also suggest unprecedented transport of lowland pollen to the uplands, consistent with intensified convection and warmer wet seasons.     

The fate of fipronil in modular estuarine mesocosms

The degradation and corresponding product manifold for the pesticide fipronil was determined in three replicate estuarine mesocosms. Aqueous fipronil concentrations rapidly decreased over the 672 h timescale of the experiment (95% removal). Loss was apparently first-order in fipronil, although there appeared to be a change in the removal mechanism after 96 h that corresponded to a dramatic slowdown in its disappearance. The reduction product of fipronil, fipronil sulfide, was not detected in the water column; however, it formed rapidly in sediments and was identified as the major product of fipronil degradation in the system (20% yield at 672 h, with respect to initial fipronil concentration). Fipronil sulfone is thought to form primarily via biological oxidation; and, although it was generated rapidly in the water column (10% yield), only trace amounts were detected in the sediment (1% yield). The direct photolysis product of fipronil, fipronil desulfinyl, was present in all samples; it formed rapidly in the water column (4% yield) and partitioned into the sediment phase (7% yield) over the course of the experiment. The mass balance on fipronil and associated products was 42% at 672 h.     

Design approaches for a cycling adsorbent/photocatalyst system for indoor air purification: formaldehyde example

A kinetic model for a cycling adsorbent/photocatalyst combination for formaldehyde removal in indoor air (Chin et al. J. Catalysis 2006, 237, 29-37) was previously developed in our lab, demonstrating agreement with lab-scale batch operation data of other researchers (Shiraishi et al. Chem. Engineer. Sci. 2003, 58, 929-934). Model parameters evaluated included adsorption equilibrium and rate constants for the adsorbent (activated carbon) honeycomb rotor, and catalytic rate constant for pseudo-first-order formaldehyde destruction in the titanium dioxide photoreactor. This paper explores design consequences for this novel system. In particular, the batch parameter values are used to model both adsorbent and photocatalyst behavior for continuous operation in typical residential home challenges. Design variables, including realistic make-up air fraction, adsorbent honeycomb rotation speed, and formaldehyde source emission rate, are considered to evaluate the ability of the system to achieve World Health Organization pollutant guidelines. In all circumstances, the size of the required rotating adsorbent bed and photoreactor for single-stage operation and the resultant formaldehyde concentration in the home are calculated. The ability of how well such a system might be accommodated within the typical dimensions of commercial ventilation ducts is also considered.     

Effect of decabromodiphenyl ether and antimony trioxide on controlled pyrolysis of high-impact polystyrene mixed with polyolefins

The controlled pyrolysis of polyethylene/polypropylene/polystyrene mixed with brominated high-impact polystyrene containing decabromodiphenyl ether as a brominated flame-retardant with antimony trioxide as a synergist was performed. The effect of decabromodiphenyl ether and antimony trioxide on the formation of its congeners and their effect on distribution of pyrolysis products were investigated. The controlled pyrolysis significantly affected the decomposition behavior and the formation of products. Analysis with gas chromatograph with electron capture detector confirmed that the bromine content was rich in step 1 (oil 1) liquid products leaving less bromine content in the step 2 (oil 2) liquid products. In the presence of antimony containing samples, the major portion of bromine was observed in the form of antimony bromide and no flame-retardant species were found in oil 1. In the presence of synergist, the step 1 and step 2 oils contain both light and heavy compounds. In the absence of synergist, the heavy compounds in step 1 oil and light compounds in step 2 oils were observed. The presence of antimony bromide was confirmed in the step 1 oils but not in step 2 oils.