Lost benefits and carbon uptake by protection of Indian plantations

There is a range of problems in assessing how protection of a specific forest to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) affect global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper shows how knowledge and information about the biophysical characteristics of forests can be combined with theories of forest management and economic behaviour to derive the impacts on global emissions of REDD+. A modelling experiment from India, where 10% of the forest plantations in eight different regions are protected, shows that the biophysical characteristics of forests are decisive for the global impacts on emissions. In regions with slow-growing forests, agents in the non-protected forests are able to increase their output significantly to fill the demand from the protected forests. This opportunity is strictly limited in regions with fast-growing forests. Therefore, prices increase far more in regions with fast-growing forests than in slow-growing forests. Over time, the markets for Indian forestry products contribute to reduce the resulting price differences across regions. When the carbon uptake from protected forests approaches zero, the leakage of emissions to other Indian forests is between 20 and 40%. Only a small part of this is international leakage. Combining different models also helps to identify knowledge gaps, and to distinguish gaps that potentially may be filled with data and new knowledge, and gaps due to different angling of modelling biophysical processes and modelling of economic behaviour.     

Nutritional correlates and mate acquisition role of multiple sexual traits in male collared flycatchers

The information content of a sexual signal may predict its importance in a multiple signal system. Many studies have correlated sexual signal expression with the absolute levels of nutrient reserves. In contrast, the changes of nutrient reserves associated with signal expression are largely unknown in the wild due to technical limitations although they are important determinants of signal information content. We compared two visual and eight acoustic sexual traits in male collared flycatchers to see whether the nutritional correlates of expression predict the role of the signal in sexual selection. We used single point assays of plasma lipid metabolites to estimate short-term changes in nutritional state in relation to sexual trait expression during courtship. As a measure of sexual selection, we estimated the relationship with pairing latency after arrival in a 4-year dataset. Males which found a mate rapidly were characterized by large wing and forehead patches, but small song strophe complexity and small figure repertoire size. Traits more strongly related to pairing latency were also more closely related to changes in nutrient reserves. This indicates a link between signal role and information content. Small wing patches and, surprisingly, complex songs seemed to indicate poor phenotypic quality and were apparently disfavoured at mate acquisition in our population. Future studies of the information content of sexual traits, especially dynamic traits such as song, may benefit from the use of plasma metabolite profiles as non-invasive indicators of short-term changes in body condition.     

Assessment of risks for adaptation to climate change: the case of land-slides

This paper describes how relatively detailed knowledge about probabilities of natural hazards can be used to make decisions to develop areas and control the risk within hazard zones. The assessment serves two purposes. First, it shows how information can support decisions. Second, decision criteria put leads on what information is required. This is helpful to identify unavailable information. We show by an example from a land-slide prone area in Norway how a relatively reliable estimate of the probability of slides ends up in a rather uncertain estimate of the risk. Uncertainty about the risk represented by natural hazards imply great challenges to the development of adaptation policies to meet climate change, but they are required. We develop a simplified criterion for optimal adaptation, and estimate the added social value required to defend development in hazard prone areas instead of developing a risk-free alternative. The value is estimated between 0 and 0.40 Euros per Euro invested in the case area, depending on type of slide, category of asset and other costs that occur in the wake of slides.     

Forecasting the e ects of EU policy measures on the nitrate pollution of groundwater and surface waters

We used the interdisciplinary model network REGFLUD to predict the actual mean nitrate concentration in percolation water at the scale of the Weser river basin (Germany) using an area di erentiated (100 m 100 m) approach. REGFLUD combines the agro-economic model RAUMIS for estimating nitrogen surpluses and the hydrological models GROWA/DENUZ for assessing the nitrate leaching from the soil. For areas showing predicted nitrate concentrations in percolation water above the European Union (EU) groundwater quality standard of 50 mg NO3-N/L, e ective agri-environmental reduction measures need to be derived and implemented to improve groundwater and surface water quality by 2015. The e ects of already implemented agricultural policy are quantified by a baseline scenario projecting the N-surpluses from agricultural sector to 2015. The REGFLUD model is used to estimate the e ects of this scenario concerning groundwater and surface water pollution by nitrate. From the results of the model analysis the needs for additional measures can be derived in terms of required additional N-surplus reduction and in terms of regional prioritization of measures. Research work will therefore directly support the implementation of the Water Framework Directive of the European Union in the Weser basin.     

Associations between driver training, determinants of risky driving behaviour and crash involvement

The core aim of the study is to examine associations between formal and informal practical driver training as well as driving experience on the one hand and young drivers’ safety attitudes, self-assessment of driving ability and self-reported driver behaviour on the other hand. An additional aim is to examine the associations between attitudes, self-assessment and behaviour on the one hand and crash involvement on the other hand. The results are based on a self-completion questionnaire survey conducted among a representative sample of Norwegian drivers aged 18–20 years (n = 1419). The results showed that there were small yet significant associations between driver training, on the one hand and traffic safety attitudes and risky driving behaviour on the other hand. The amount of formal driver training was negatively associated with the respondents’ evaluation of their driving skills; although the amount of lay instruction was positively associated with such self-evaluation. The results also showed that attitudes as well as self-assessment of driving ability were significantly associated with self-reported risk behaviour. This was especially true for attitudes related to rule violations. There was a strong association between crash involvement and exposure (measured as months holding a licence). Young novice drivers’ crash involvement seems stronger associated with driving skills (manifested as self-assessment of driving ability) than safety attitudes and self-reported driver behaviour. The consequences of the results for driver training and accident prevention are discussed.     

An investigation of driver attitudes and behaviour in rural and urban areas in Norway

This study aimed to investigate differences in self-reported driver attitudes and behaviour in rural, peri-urban and urban areas in Norway. Age, gender and education were controlled for. An additional aim was to investigate the relations between demographics, personality variables, driver attitudes and behaviour in the complete sample and across the different geographical areas. To obtain these aims, a questionnaire was distributed by mail to a randomly selected sample from the Norwegian population registry (N = 6203). Of the distributed questionnaires the response rate was 30%. Differences in attitudes and self-reported behaviour were significant due to type of geographical area. However, the results showed that gender, age and education caused stronger differences than type of geographical area in attitudes to driving and driver behaviour. SEM-analysis failed to reject the notion that the strength of the structural relations was similar in the geographical areas. This could imply that demographic characteristics, and their compositions in rural, peri-urban and urban areas, are more important for differences in driver behaviour and attitudes than characteristics of the traffic environment.     

Testosterone concentrations and male genital organ morphology in Greenland sledge dogs (Canis familiaris) dietary exposed to organohalogen contaminants

This study investigated whether low-level, long-term in utero and post-natal exposure to organohalogen pollutants disrupts male reproductive organ morphology and testosterone production in Greenland sledge dogs (Canis familiaris), as a model of Arctic top predators feeding on marine mammals. Six male dogs were followed for 1 year and testosterone concentrations, testes/baculum morphology and baculum bone mineral density (BMD) was determined. Three males were exposed to organohalogenated contaminants (OHCs) in utero through maternal dietary intake of minke whale blubber (Balaenoptera acutorostrata), with a post-weaning ∑OHC intake of 10.4–11.7 µg kg^?1 day^?1 resulting in an adipose tissue range of ∑OHC 4518–5729 ng (g lw)^?1 after 1 year. Three control males were exposed to very low concentrations of OHCs through pork fat. No significant differences were seen in plasma testosterone concentrations, baculum weight, BMD, and testicular length in the six male dogs (control, n = 3 and exposed, n = 3) measured at 3, 5, 7, 9, and 12 months of age. Testicular weights were significantly lower in the exposed group (p = 0.015, n = 2). Although this study had a limited number of animals, it was observed that in utero and the following 12 months of chronic exposure to a complex mixture of contaminants in the form of naturally accumulated OHCs does not affects testosterone levels, but possibly affects testicular weights in sledge dogs.     

Future ocean acidification will be amplified by hypoxia in coastal habitats

Ocean acidification is elicited by anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and resulting oceanic uptake of excess CO₂ and might constitute an abiotic stressor powerful enough to alter marine ecosystem structures. For surface waters in gas-exchange equilibrium with the atmosphere, models suggest increases in CO₂ partial pressure (pCO₂) from current values of ca. 390 μatm to ca. 700–1,000 μatm by the end of the century. However, in typically unequilibrated coastal hypoxic regions, much higher pCO₂ values can be expected, as heterotrophic degradation of organic material is necessarily related to the production of CO₂ (i.e., dissolved inorganic carbon). Here, we provide data and estimates that, even under current conditions, maximum pCO₂ values of 1,700–3,200 μatm can easily be reached when all oxygen is consumed at salinities between 35 and 20, respectively. Due to the nonlinear nature of the carbonate system, the approximate doubling of seawater pCO₂ in surface waters due to ocean acidification will most strongly affect coastal hypoxic zones as pCO₂ during hypoxia will increase proportionally: we calculate maximum pCO₂ values of ca. 4,500 μatm at a salinity of 20 (T = 10 °C) and ca. 3,400 μatm at a salinity of 35 (T = 10 °C) when all oxygen is consumed. Upwelling processes can bring these CO₂-enriched waters in contact with shallow water ecosystems and may then affect species performance there as well. We conclude that (1) combined stressor experiments (pCO₂ and pO₂) are largely missing at the moment and that (2) coastal ocean acidification experimental designs need to be closely adjusted to carbonate system variability within the specific habitat. In general, the worldwide spread of coastal hypoxic zones also simultaneously is a spread of CO₂-enriched zones. The magnitude of expected changes in pCO₂ in these regions indicates that coastal systems may be more endangered by future global climate change than previously thought.     

Distribution and mortality of diapause eggs from calanoid copepods in relation to sedimentation regimes

Distribution, abundance and age of diapause eggs from three species of calanoid copepods (in particular from Acartia spp. most likely Acartia tonsa, and Centropages hamatus and less numerous from Temora longicornis) were recorded in sediment profiles by enumerating hatched nauplii from incubated sediment samples. Phytoplankton pigments and ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs analyses indicated that the sedimentation regimes were different between two southern and two northern stations of the island Funen, Denmark. Significant variations in vertical distribution, abundance and mortality of diapause eggs were found between the stations. Dating of the sediment cores suggested a ~70-year maximum age of viable eggs on the northernmost stations, and ~28 year at the southernmost stations. The eggs exhibited a significantly higher mortality rate at the southernmost stations compared with the northernmost, 0.35–0.53 year⁻¹ vs. 0.07–0.08 year⁻¹ with no systematic pattern among species. The differences in abundance, mortality and age of the diapause eggs are suggested to be due to the sediment characteristics in which they are buried.