Application of a stochastic, Weibull probability generator for replacing missing data on ambient concentrations of gaseous pollutants

A stochastic, three-parameter, Weibull frequency distribution, probability generator was tested by using theoretical data. Subsequently, it was applied to replace missing values of hourly atmospheric concentrations of trace gases that were continuously monitored at three study sites, for 2 years. The results were highly accurate and realistic. The cumulative means and the medians calculated by the Weibull method were intermediate between corresponding values calculated by uniform substitution of missing values with 'zero' or with half of the minimum detection limit of the appropriate measurement instrument used. Furthermore, the Weibull method allowed the replacement of as many as 100 missing values on either side of a measured data sub-set, without altering the overall characteristics of the true frequency distribution of the entire data set.     

Exposure Programme on Atmospheric Corrosion Effects of Acidifying Pollutants in Tropical and Subtropical Climates

Many national exposure programmes have been performed in tropical and subtropical climates during the last 50 years. However, ambitious programmes involving more than a few countries are scarce. In this paper a recently formed network of test sites is described involving 12 test sites in Asia (India, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and China including Hong Kong) and four test sites in Africa (South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe). This effort is part of the 2001–2004 Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) funded Programme on Regional Air Pollution in Developing Countries (RAPIDC). Corrosion attack after one (2002–2003) year of exposure (carbon steel, zinc, copper, limestone and paint coated steel) are presented together with environmental data (SO₂, NO₂, HNO₃, O₃, particles, amount and pH of precipitation, temperature and relative humidity) for all the test sites. The obtained corrosion values are substantially higher than expected for limestone, higher than expected for carbon steel and lower than expected for zinc compared to values calculated using the best available dose–response functions.     

The Fernow Watershed Acidification Study: Ecosystem Acidification, Nitrogen Saturation and Base Cation Leaching

In 1989, a watershed acidification experiment was begun on the Fernow Experimental Forest in West Virginia, USA. Ammonium sulfate fertilizer (35.5 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹and 40.5 kg S ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) was applied to a forested watershed (WS3) that supported a 20-year-old stand of eastern deciduous hardwoods. Additions of N and S are approximately twice the ambient deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in the adjacent mature forested watershed (WS4), that serves as the reference watershed for this study. Acidification of stream water and soil solution was documented, although the response was delayed, and acidification processes appeared to be driven by nitrate rather than sulfate. As a result of the acidification treatment, nitrate solution concentrations increased below all soil layers, whereas sulfate was retained by all soil layers after only a few years of the fertilization treatments, perhaps due to adsorption induced from decreasing sulfate deposition. Based on soil solution monitoring, depletion of calcium and magnesium was observed, first from the upper soil horizons and later from the lower soil horizons. Increased base cation concentrations in stream water also were documented and linked closely with high solution levels of nitrate. Significant changes in soil chemical properties were not detected after 12 years of treatment, however.     

Technological improvements in automotive battery recycling

Recycling of automotive batteries for the recovery of secondary lead is extremely important in Brazil, for the country does not possess large reserves of this metal. Lead is one of the most widely used metals in the world, but it is highly toxic, posing risks for humans and for the environment if not utilized or treated adequately. Industrial waste containing lead in Brazil are classified by the Brazilian Residue Code (NBR—10004:2004) as hazardous. The lead recycling process employed by the recycling industry in Brazil is the pyrometallurgical process in a rotary furnace. This process consists of four stages: (1) grinding of the battery to separate plastic, electrolyte and lead plates; (2) lead reduction in a rotary furnace; (3) separation of metallic lead from slag; and (4) refining of recycled lead. The purpose of this work is to propose process improvements aimed primarily at increasing production output by reducing the loss of lead in slag and particulates, thereby providing a healthier work environment in line with Brazilian environmental and labor laws.     

Use of Streamflow Data to Estimate Base Flow/Ground‐Water Recharge For Wisconsin1

Abstract: The average annual base flow/recharge was determined for streamflow‐gaging stations throughout Wisconsin by base‐flow separation. A map of the State was prepared that shows the average annual base flow for the period 1970‐99 for watersheds at 118 gaging stations. Trend analysis was performed on 22 of the 118 streamflow‐gaging stations that had long‐term records, unregulated flow, and provided aerial coverage of the State. The analysis found that a statistically significant increasing trend was occurring for watersheds where the primary land use was agriculture. Most gaging stations where the land cover was forest had no significant trend. A method to estimate the average annual base flow at ungaged sites was developed by multiple‐regression analysis using basin characteristics. The equation with the lowest standard error of estimate, 9.5%, has drainage area, soil infiltration and base flow factor as independent variables. To determine the average annual base flow for smaller watersheds, estimates were made at low‐flow partial‐record stations in 3 of the 12 major river basins in Wisconsin. Regression equations were developed for each of the three major river basins using basin characteristics. Drainage area, soil infiltration, basin storage and base‐flow factor were the independent variables in the regression equations with the lowest standard error of estimate. The standard error of estimate ranged from 17% to 52% for the three river basins.     

Demonstrating Floodplain Uncertainty Using Flood Probability Maps1

Abstract: The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps depict the 100‐year recurrence interval floodplain boundary as a single line. However, because of natural variability and model uncertainty, no floodplain extents can be accurately defined by a single line. This article presents a new approach to floodplain mapping that takes advantage of accepted methodologies in hydrologic and hydraulic analysis while including the effects of uncertainty. In this approach, the extents of computed floodplain boundaries are defined as a continuous map of flood probabilities, rather than as a single line. Engineers and planners can use these flood probability maps for viewing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary at any recurrence interval. Such a flood probability map is a useful tool for visualizing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary and represents greater honesty in engineering technologies that are used for flood mapping. While institutional barriers may prevent adoption of such definitions for use in graduated flood insurance rates (as most other insurance industries use to account for relative risks), the methods open the door technically to such a reality.     

The Use of Carbon and Nitrogen Isotopes to Study Watershed Erosion Processes1

Abstract:  Tracer studies are needed to better understand watershed soil erosion and calibrate watershed erosion models. For the first time, stable nitrogen and carbon isotopes (δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C) and the carbon to nitrogen atomic ratio (C/N) natural tracers are used to investigate temporal and spatial variability of erosion processes within a sub‐watershed. Temporal variability was assessed by comparing δ¹⁵N, δ¹³C, and C/N of eroded‐soils from a non‐equilibrium erosion event immediately following freezing and thawing of surface soils with two erosion events characterized by equilibrium conditions with erosion downcutting. Spatial variability was assessed for the equilibrium events by using the δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C signatures of eroded‐soils to measure the fraction of eroded‐soil derived from rill/interrill erosion on upland hillslopes as compared to headcut erosion on floodplains. In order to perform this study, a number of tasks were carried out including: (1) sampling source‐soils from upland hillslopes and floodplains, (2) sampling eroded‐soils with an in situ trap in the stream of the sub‐watershed, (3) isotopic and elemental analysis of the samples using isotope ratio mass spectrometry, (4) fractioning eroded‐soil to its upland rill/interrill and floodplain headcut end‐members using an unmixing model within a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework, and (5) evaluating tracer unmixing model results by comparison with process‐based erosion prediction models for rill/interrill and headcut erosion processes. Results showed that finer soil particles eroded during the non‐equilibrium event were enriched in δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C tracers and depleted in C/N tracer relative to coarser soil particles eroded during the equilibrium events. Correlation of tracer signature with soil particle size was explainable based on known biogeochemical processes. δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C were also able to distinguish between upland rill/interrill erosion and floodplain headcut erosion, which was due to different plant cover at the erosion sources. Results from the tracer unmixing model highlighted future needs for coupling rill/interrill and headcut erosion prediction models.     

Modeling of n-butane ignition, combustion, and preflame oxidation in the 20-l vessel

The objective of the study reported herein is to simulate various physical and chemical phenomena accompanying fuel-rich n-butane–oxygen mixture preparation, ignition, preflame oxidation, and combustion in the standard 20-l explosion vessel, by applying mathematical models. Based on the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the mixing process and natural convection of the ignition kernel, as well as on the analysis of the detailed reaction mechanism of n-butane oxidation, laminar flame propagation, and self-ignition, possible explanations for the phenomena observed experimentally have been suggested. The results of the study indicate that seemingly inflammable mixtures can become hazardous depending on the mixture preparation procedure and forced ignition timing.     

Fire and explosion risk assessment for large-scale oil export terminal

Now in Russian Federation and other countries large-scale oil terminals (volume of one tank exceeds 100 000 m³, total volume of tanks exceeds 300 000 m³) are designed and constructed. Therefore fire safety of such objects becomes a very important task, solution of which is hardly possible without detail fire risk assessment. This study is aimed to a solution of this problem. Potential, individual and social risks were calculated. The potential risk was defined as a frequency of occurrence of hazardous factors of fires and explosions in a given point of space (the so-called risk contours). The individual risk was defined as a frequency of injuring a given person by hazardous factors of fires and explosions. Time of presence of this person in hazardous zones (near the hazardous installation) is taken into account during calculations of the individual risk. Social risk was defined as a dependence of frequency of injuring a given number of people by hazardous factors of fires and explosions on this number. In practice the social risk is usually determined on injuring not less than 10 people.

The oil terminal under consideration includes the following main parts: crude oil storage consisting of three tanks of volume 100 000 m³ each, input crude oil pipeline of diameter 0.6 m, crude oil pumps, output crude oil pipeline of diameter 0.8 m, auxiliary buildings and facilities. The following main scenarios of tank fires have been considered: rim seal fire, pool fire on a surface of a floating roof, pool fire on a total cross-section surface of the tank, pool fire in a dyke, explosions in closed or semiclosed volumes. Fires and explosions in other parts of the terminal are also taken into account. Effects of escalation of accidents are considered.

Risk contours have been calculated both for the territory of the terminal and for the neighbouring space. The potential risk for the storage zone is near 10⁻⁴–10⁻⁵ year⁻¹, and at a distance 500 m from the terminal the potential risk values do not exceed 10⁻⁶ year⁻¹. The values of the individual risk for various categories of workers are in the range of 10⁻⁵–10⁻⁶ year⁻¹. Because of low number of the workers on the terminal and large distances to towns and villages the social risk value is negligible. These risk values are consistent with practice of the best oil companies, and fire hazard level of the terminal can be accepted as tolerable.