基于数据分解的AQI的CEEMD-Elman神经网络预测研究

针对Elman神经网络在预测空气质量指数（AQI）时易受到数据非平稳性的影响导致预测趋势良好但准确度较低的问题,提出以互补集合经验模态分解（Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition,CEEMD）为基础的CEEMD-Elman模型.应用CEEMD对AQI序列分解成不同时间尺度上的本征模态函数分量和剩余分量,进而首次将对非平稳的AQI序列的预测研究转化为对多个平稳的本征模态函数分量的研究.分别与Elman单一模型、EMD-Elman模型、BP单一模型及CEEMD-BP模型进行实验对比.结果表明：应用该方法建立的模型的均方误差、平均绝对误差和平均绝对百分比误差分别为4.80、0.71、1.84%,均小于其他模型结果;对应空气质量等级预报正确天数的频率为94.12%.该模型能有效的降低非平稳性对实验预测结果的影响,实现对空气质量等级的准确预报;该研究为进一步预测AQI的走向提供了有效依据,也为政府决策和管理部门制定空气污染控制提供了更充分的参考.     

Air pollution characteristics and their relationship with emissions and meteorology in the Yangtze River Delta region during 2014–2016

With rapid economic growth and urbanization, the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region in China has experienced serious air pollution challenges. In this study, we analyzed the air pollution characteristics and their relationship with emissions and meteorology in the YRD region during 2014–2016. In recent years, the concentrations of all air pollutants, except O_3,decreased. Spatially, the PM_(2.5), PM_(10), SO_2, and CO concentrations were higher in the northern YRD region, and NO_2 and O_3 were higher in the central YRD region. Based on the number of non-attainment days(i.e., days with air quality index greater than 100), PM_(2.5) was the largest contributor to air pollution in the YRD region, followed by O_3, PM_(10), and NO_2.However, particulate matter pollution has declined gradually, while O_3 pollution worsened.Meteorological conditions mainly influenced day-to-day variations in pollutant concentrations. PM_(2.5) concentration was inversely related to wind speed, while O_3 concentration was positively correlated with temperature and negatively correlated with relative humidity.The air quality improvement in recent years was mainly attributed to emission reductions.During 2014–2016, PM_(2.5), PM_(10), SO_2, NO_x, CO, NH_3, and volatile organic compound(VOC)emissions in the YRD region were reduced by 26.3%, 29.2%, 32.4%, 8.1%, 15.9%, 4.5%, and0.3%, respectively. Regional transport also contributed to the air pollution. During regional haze periods, pollutants from North China and East China aggravated the pollution in the YRD region. Our findings suggest that emission reduction and regional joint prevention and control helped to improve the air quality in the YRD region.     

基于生态足迹的中国可持续食物消费模式

随着人们饮食需求的不断多样化,可持续食物消费已成为一个全球关注的重要议题。为了探寻可持续的食物消费模式,重点分析了中国食物消费结构演变趋势及特征,运用生态足迹模型量化中国食物消费结构的环境压力动态变化;基于可持续食物消费的内涵,结合中国均衡膳食和环境的可持续性指标,构建食物生态承载级别衡量标准,并据此建立了符合中国食物消费习惯、满足营养摄入需求、环境压力小的可持续食物消费模式。结果显示：中国食物消费生态环境压力不断增大,1978-2013年中国食物消费人均生态足迹增长了154.49%,2008年出现生态赤字,2013年赤字值为0.0705 ghm²;食物生态承载级别持续恶化,2008年生态承载级别由“较高”下降到“中等”;可持续食物消费模式的构建使得人均生态足迹下降了12.92%,表明转变食物消费模式是解决食物消费生态环境压力这一矛盾问题的最有效途径。     

Highly catalytic activity of Mn/SBA-15 catalysts for toluene combustion improved by adjusting the morphology of supports

Rod-like, hexagonal and fiber-like SBA-15 mesoporous silicas were synthesized to support MnO_x for toluene oxidation. This study showed that the morphology of the supports greatly influenced the catalytic activity in toluene oxidation. MnO_x supported on rod-like SBA-15(R-SBA-15) displayed the best catalytic activity and the conversion at 230°C reached more than 90%, which was higher than the other two catalysts. MnO_x species consisted of coexisting MnO_2 and Mn_2O_3 on the three kinds of SBA-15 samples. Large amounts of Mn_2O_3 species were formed on the surface and high oxygen mobility was obtained on MnO_x supported on R-SBA-15, according to the H_2 temperature programmed reduction(H_2-TPR)and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy(XPS) results. The Mn/R-SBA-15 catalyst with greater amounts of Mn_2O_3 species possessed a large amount of surface lattice oxygen, which accelerated the catalytic reaction rate. Therefore, the surface lattice oxygen and high oxygen mobility were critical factors on the catalytic activity of the Mn/R-SBA-15 catalyst.     

动态膜压法测定江、污混合水体中有机物含量的探讨

用双驱动动态膜压仪测定江、污混合水中有机物含量。通过测定白龙港污水和长江水混合后的膜压和滞回环面积，用它们与相应的经典法CODCr作图，获得了滞回环面积和CODCr之间良好地线性关系，表明用动态膜压法可快速测定混合水中的有机物含量，不须加任何试剂，不会产生二次污染。同时，对实验结果进行了初步的机理探讨。     

外源稀土La在沉积物中的形态及其生物可利用性

将沉积物中的外源稀土La分为可溶解态、酸可提取态、有机质及硫化物结合态,研究了小球藻(Chlorella Vulgaris Beijerinck)对这三种形态La的生物可利用性.研究结果表明:这三种形态的La在沉积物中的含量与其在藻中的含量有很好的相关关系.其中可溶解态La的生物可利用性最大,这说明,沉积物中La的释放对其生物可利用性至关重要.     

基于水体固有光学特性的太湖浮游植物色素的定量反演

基于2005-05～2005-08对太湖全湖不同湖区92个样点吸收系数、光束衰减系数、后向散射系数等固有光学特性测定与计算,选择色素浓度反演的最佳波段组合,利用反射率比建立了太湖叶绿素a,叶绿素a与脱镁叶绿素的定量反演模型.结果表明,全湖4次采样叶绿素a、脱镁叶绿素的变化范围分别为3.9～149.8μg·L^-1、均值为(38.14±28.89)μg·L^-1;0～45.8μg·L^-1、均值为(8.49±7.24)μg·L^-1,存在很大空间差异,湖心区和草型湖区的东太湖、胥口湾、贡湖湾色素浓度一般要低于其他湖区.同样吸收系数和后向散射系数也存在很大的空间差异,a_t(440)的变化范围为0.86～23.25 m^-1、均值为(6.21±3.31)m^-1,b_t(550)的变化范围0.05～2.25m^-1、均值为(0.72±0.52)m^-1,东太湖、胥口湾、贡湖湾的值要低于其他湖区.400～650nm随波长增加总吸收系数大致呈下降趋势,680nm附近存在1个峰值,峰值的强弱与水体中色素浓度有关,而到720nm以后则逐渐增加,后向散射系数随波长增加则逐渐降低.反射率比R(706)/R(682)能较好地用于太湖色素浓度的反演,叶绿素a、叶绿素a与脱镁叶绿素之和幂函数反演的决定系数R²分别达0.823、0.864 5.模型能用于包括湖面反射率受湖底和沉水植物影响的全太湖.     

Prediction of particulate loading in exhaust from fabric filter baghouses with one or more failed bags

Loss of filtration efficiency in a fabric filter baghouse is typically caused by bag failure, in one form or another. The degree of such failure can be as minor as a pinhole leak or as major as a fully involved baghouse fire. In some cases, local air pollution regulations or federal hazardous waste laws may require estimation of the total quantity of particulate matter released to the environment as a result of such failures. In this paper, a technique is presented for computing the dust loading in the baghouse exhaust when one or more bags have failed. The algorithm developed is shown to be an improvement over a previously published result, which requires empirical knowledge of the variation in baghouse pressure differential with bag failures. An example calculation is presented for a baghouse equipped with 200 bags. The prediction shows that a small percentage of failed bags can cause a relatively large proportion of the gas flow to bypass the active bags, which, in turn, leads to high outlet dust loading and low overall collection efficiency from the baghouse.     

三丁基氯化锡对红鳍笛鲷的急性毒性及不同组织生化指标的影响

为研究有机锡化合物对海洋生物抗氧化防御系统和神经系统的影响,以我国东南沿海常见的中下层增养殖鱼类红鳍笛鲷(Lutjanus erythopterus)幼鱼为实验生物,采用半静态毒性实验方法,分别研究了三丁基氯化锡(tributyltin chloride,TBTCl)的急性毒性和96 h暴露时间内对红鳍笛鲷幼鱼鳃、脑和...