Assessing land use impacts on flood processes in complex terrain by using GIS and modeling approach

A distributed hydrologic modeling and GIS approach is applied for the assessment of land use impact in the Steinsel sub-basin, Alzette, Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg. The assessment focuses on the runoff contributions from different land use classes and the potential impact of land use changes on runoff generation. The results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land use areas in this catchment, and tends to increase for small floods and for the dry season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to the recession flow. Significant variations in flood volume, peak discharge, time to the peak, etc., are found from the model simulation based on the three hypothetical land use change scenarios.     

Optimal charges on river effluent from lumped and distributed sources

We propose a modelling framework for the design of a Pigouvian effluent tax, in an environmental management problem implicating several economic agents located in a river basin. The proposed charging system allows for the agents' geographical position relative to the river's sections, at which environmental standards are to be enforced, and takes into account the possible different market structures within which the agents are operating. In particular, we consider industrial agents competing on an oligopolistic market, and a set of farmers acting as price takers on a large market. A regional authority's goal is to induce agents to some sort of cooperation which would result in the satisfaction of the common environmental constraints. The economic process on one side, and the pollution transport and accumulation on the other, constitute two dynamic processes in two different time scales. As the economic process is much slower than the other process we can neglect the latter's transients and concentrate on the time invariant steady state solutions to the transportation equation. The model thus constructed has some noncooperative game and optimal control problem's features with space being the ‘running’ variable. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modelling the Distribution and Quality of Sand and Gravel Resources in 3D: a Case Study in the Thames Basin,UK

Three-dimensional (3D) models are often utilised to assess the presence of sand and gravel deposits. Expanding these models to provide a better indication of the suitability of the deposit as aggregate for use in construction would be advantageous. This, however, leads to statistical challenges. To be effective, models must be able to reflect the interdependencies between different criteria (e.g. depth to deposit, thickness of deposit, ratio of mineral to waste, proportion of ‘fines’) as well as the inherent uncertainty introduced because models are derived from a limited set of boreholes in a study region. Using legacy borehole data collected during a systematic survey of sand and gravel deposits in the UK, we have developed a 3D model for a 2400 km² region close to Reading, southern England. In developing the model, we have reassessed the borehole grading data to reflect modern extraction criteria and explored the most suitable statistical modelling technique. The additive log-ratio transform and the linear model of coregionalization have been applied, techniques that have been previously used to map soil texture classes in two dimensions, to assess the quality of sand and gravel deposits in the area. The application of these statistical techniques leads to a model which can be used to generate thousands of plausible realisations of the deposit which fully reflect the extent of model uncertainty. The approach offers potential to improve regional-scale mineral planning by providing an enhanced understanding of sand and gravel deposits and the extent to which they meet current extraction criteria.

     

Driver's obesity and road crash risks in the United States

Objective: We assessed obesity trends in U.S. drivers involved in fatal crashes since 1999 and distinguished whether crash risk factors were different between obese and nonobese drivers.

Methods: We included only drivers of passenger cars involved in fatal traffic crashes between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2012. Obesity was classified according to the World Health Organization guidelines and profiled between 1999 and 2012 using the adjusted prevalence ratio (aPR) from log-binomial regression models. Differences in crash risks (e.g., driver's fatality, drunk driving, seat belt nonuse) between obese and nonobese drivers were estimated as adjusted odds ratios (aORs) using logistic regression models.

Results: A total of 753,024 U.S. drivers were involved in fatal crashes, for which obesity information was available for 534,887. About 56% (n = 299,078) were driving passenger cars. The prevalence of class I obesity increased from 10% in 1999 to 14% in 2012 (aPR = 1.50, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.42–1.58), class II obesity from 3 to 5% (aPR = 2.22, 95% CI, 2.05–3.01), and class III obesity from 1 to 2% (aPR = 2.65; 95% CI, 2.27–3.10). Compared to nonobese controls, obese drivers had significantly higher risks for fatality (1.10 ≤ aOR ≤ 1.47), seat belt nonuse (1.00 ≤ aOR ≤ 1.21), need for extrication (1.01 ≤ aOR ≤ 1.23), and ambulance transport time ≥30 min (1.01 ≤ aOR ≤ 1.28). Compared to nonobese controls, obese drivers were less likely to drink drive (0.41 ≤ aOR ≤ 0.72) or speed >65 mph (0.78 ≤ aOR ≤ 0.93).

Conclusion: The rising national prevalence of obesity extends to U.S. drivers involved in fatal crashes and indicates the need to improve seat belt use, vehicle design, and postcrash care for this vulnerable population.     

Assessment of an accidental vapour cloud explosion: Lessons from the Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. accident at Jaipur,India

On 29 October 2009, at 19:30 IST, a devastating vapour cloud explosion occurred in a large fuel storage area at the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) Depot in Jaipur, India, generating significant blast pressure. As a consequence of this explosion, the entire installation was destroyed, buildings in the immediate vicinity were heavily damaged, and windowpane breakages were found up to 2 km from the terminal. The IOC estimated that the total loss from the fire and explosion was approximately INR 2800 million.Ironically, as a storage site, the Jaipur terminal was not highly congested, and thus was not considered to have adequate potential for a vapour cloud explosion (VCE). Nevertheless, the prima facie evidences indicate that this was a case of VCE. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to quantify the potential overpressures due to vapour cloud explosions (VCEs) using the Process Hazard Analysis DNV Norway based PHAST 6.51 Software. The results are validated by the extent of the damage that had occurred. The estimation of the VCE shows that a maximum 1.0 bar overpressure was generated in the surrounding area. The initial assessment of the accident data roughly estimates the release mode, time, and amount of vaporized fuel. A more accurate estimate has been obtained by modelling the dispersion of vapour clouds in the surrounding atmosphere, which reveals trends and relationships for the occurrence of vapour cloud explosions.     

Revision and meta-analysis of selected biosphere parameter values for chlorine, iodine, neptunium, radium, radon and uranium

There is a continual supply of new experimental data that are relevant to the assessment of the potential impacts of nuclear fuel waste disposal. In the biosphere, the traditional assessment models are data intensive, and values are needed for several thousand parameters. This is augmented further when measures of central tendency, statistical dispersion, correlations and truncations are required for each parameter to allow probabilistic risk assessment. Recent reviews proposed values for 10-15 key element-specific parameters relevant to (36)Cl, (129)I, (222)Rn, (226)Ra, (237)Np and (238)U, and some highlights from this data update are summarized here. Several parameters for Np are revised downward by more than 10-fold, as is the fish/water concentration ratio for U. Soil solid/liquid partition coefficients, Kd, are revised downward by 10-770-fold for Ra. Specific parameters are discussed in detail, including degassing of I from soil; sorption of Cl in soil; categorization of plant/soil concentration ratios for U, Ra and Np; Rn transfer from soil to indoor air; Rn degassing from surface water; and the Ca dependence of Ra transfers.     

Biomass and carbon budgeting of sustainable agroforestry systems as ecosystem service in Indian Himalayas

Adoption of agroforestry is paramount as a climate change mitigation and adaptation strategy. The assessment of plant biomass is crucial for understanding the vulnerability of biological systems to climate change. In the present study, agroforestry systems viz., agrisilviculture (AS), agrihorticulture (AH), agrihortisilviculture (AHS) and agrisilvihorticulture (ASH) were investigated for biomass production and carbon stock in vegetation as well as in soil in the Indian central Himalaya along the elevation i.e. E₁ (<1100 m), E₂ (1100–1400 m), E₃ (1400–1700 m), E₄ (1700–2000 m) and E₅ (>2000 m). Mean aboveground and belowground biomass were 73.9% and 26.1%, respectively, of total biomass (64.4 t ha^?1) in agroforestry systems. Fodder and/or timber trees accounted for 31% (in AHS) to 74% (in AS) of total biomass, while fruit trees accounted for 18% (in ASH) to 73% (in AH) of total biomass. The contribution of agriculture crops to total biomass fluctuated between 19% (in ASH) and 26% (in AH). Total vegetation biomass, soil carbon and total carbon density in agroforestry systems increased significantly along the elevation, with maximum biomass at elevation E₅ (32.0 t ha^?1, 64.7 t C ha^?1 and 96.7 t C ha^?1). Total biomass of vegetation among agroforestry systems differed significantly. Soil carbon stock was highest in AHS (59.5 t C ha^?1) and total carbon density (vegetation + soil) was highest in ASH (93.0 t C ha^?1). Thus, in Indian Himalayas, vegetation biomass, carbon stock, soil and total carbon (vegetation + soil) stock increased along the elevation.

Abbrviations: AG: aboveground; BG: belowground; WD: wood density; VOB: volume over bark; BEF: biomass expansion factor; AS: agrisilviculture; AH: agrihorticulture; ASH: agrisilvihorticulture; AHS: agrihortisilviculture; E: elevation; C: carbon; CO₂: carbon-di-oxide; IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; DBH: diameter at breast height; AGBD: aboveground biomass density; BGBD: belowground biomass density; GSVD: growing stock volume density     

Sex ratio varies with egg investment in the red-necked phalarope (Phalaropus lobatus)

Fisher’s sex ratio theory predicts that on average parents should allocate resources equally to the production of males and females. However, when the cost/benefit ratio for producing males versus females differs, the theory predicts that parents may bias production, typically through underproduction of the sex with greater variation in fitness. We tested theoretical predictions in the red-necked phalarope, a polyandrous shorebird with sex-role reversal. Since females are larger and therefore potentially more expensive to produce and may have greater variation in reproductive success, we predicted from Fisher’s hypothesis a male bias in population embryonic sex ratio, and from sex allocation theory, female biases in the clutches of females allocating more resources to reproduction. We measured eggs and chicks and sexed 535 offspring from 163 clutches laid over 6 years at two sites in Alaska. The embryonic sex ratio of 51.1 M:48.9 F did not vary from parity. Clutch sex ratio (% male) was positively correlated with clutch mean egg size, opposite to our prediction. Within clutches, however, egg size did not differ by sex. Male phalarope fitness may be more variable than previously thought, and/or differential investment in eggs may affect the within-sex fitness of males more than females. Eggs producing males were less dense than those producing females, possibly indicating they contained more yolk relative to albumen. Albumen contributes to chick structural size, while yolk supports survivorship after hatch. Sex-specific chick growth strategies may affect egg size and allocation patterns by female phalaropes and other birds.