THE SENSITWITY OF NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA STREAMFLOW TO CLIMATE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: The sensitivity of streamflow to climate change was investigated in the American, Carson, and Truckee River Basins, California and Nevada. Nine gaging stations were used to represent streamflow in the basins. Annual models were developed by regressing 1961–1991 streamflow data on temperature and precipitation. Climate-change scenarios were used as inputs to the models to determine streamflow sensitivities. Climate-change scenarios were generated from historical time series by modifying mean temperatures by a range of +4°C to—4°C and total precipitation by a range of +25 percent to -25 percent. Results show that streamflow on the warmer, lower west side of the Sierra Nevada generally is more sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes than is streamflow on the colder, higher east side. A 2°C rise in temperature and a 25-percent decrease in precipitation results in stream-flow decreases of 56 percent on the American River and 25 percent on the Carson River. A 2°C decline in temperature and a 25-percent increase in precipitation results in streamflow increases of 102 percent on the American River and 22 percent on the Carson River.     

HYDROLOGIC MODELING WITH REMOTELY SENSED DATABASES1

ABSTRACT: An integrated remotely sensed database was used as the basis for a hydrologic and sediment transport modeling effort for an agricultural area of western Puerto Rico. Classified spectral images of airborne radiance data provided ground cover information and were used in conjunction with topographic and soils data to guide model construction and provide input to the water balance and sediment yield simulations. Runoff and sediment discharge from hydrologically homogeneous regions were routed through the drainage network and combined at the basin outlet. The model was used to simulate four years of observed sediment discharge from the basin. Relative contributions to the total sediment yield of forested and agricultural areas were determined and compared.     

DEVELOPMENT OF EMPIRICAL,GEOGRAPHICALLY SPECIFIC WATER QUALITY CRITERIA: A CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY ANALYSIS APPROACH1

The need for scientifically defensible water quality standards for nonpoint source pollution control continues to be a pressing environmental issue. The probability of impact at differing levels of nonpoint source pollution was determined using the biological response of instream organisms empirically obtained from a statistical survey. A conditional probability analysis was used to calculate a biological threshold of impact as a function of the likelihood of exceeding a given value of pollution metric for a specified geographic area. Uncertainty and natural variability were inherently incorporated into the analysis through the use of data from a probabilistic survey. Data from wadable streams in the mid‐Atlantic area of the U.S. were used to demonstrate the approach. Benthic macroinvertebrate community index values (EPT taxa richness) were used to identify impacted stream communities. Percent fines in substrate (silt/clay fraction, > 0.06 mm) were used as a surrogate indicator for sedimentation. Thresholds of impact due to sedimentation were identified by three different techniques, and were in the range of 12 to 15 percent fines. These values were consistent with existing literature from laboratory and field studies on the impact of sediments on aquatic life in freshwater streams. All results were different from values determined from current regulatory guidance. Finally, it was illustrated how these thresholds could be used to develop criterion for protection of aquatic life in streams.     

Simulation modeling and resource management

Simulation models are becoming increasingly important as tools for synthesizing and applying information in almost all aspects of land management. They are particulary valuable for predicting and comparing outcomes of alternative decisions and assumptions. Models also permit managers to consider and integrate the potential influences of a large number of variables.     

COMPUTER BASED METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF NONSTRUCTURAL FLOOD MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES1

ABSTRACT: The suggested methodology matches flooding risks to development classes. The matching process is accomplished on a mapping grid basis. Flooding risks include stage and velocity measures. Development classes are based on size and building material parameters for residential, commercial, industrial, and public structures. A computer program counts structures requiring predetermined nonstructural measures given the flooding variables, development classes, and desired effectiveness levels in question. A case study is presented to demonstrate data collection techniques, output, and the use of output in developing nonstructural mixes.     

DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING FOR OPTIMUM CONJUNCTIVE USE1

The Las Vegas, Nevada area like most semi-arid basins, was developed through exploitation of available ground-water resources. Area growth in this large valley has occurred in a scattered and sporadic manner with development both in incorporated areas and within the County. As a result, today there exist five major water suppliers which are: a water district, three municipalities, and a large corporation, in addition to numerous small water companies and thousands of domestic wells. In the past 20 years the area has grown from a population of less than 50,000 to over 300,000 today. The bulk of the water demand for this growth has been met from the ground-water resource and as a result the basin is being severely mined. Current extractions are over three times the estimated annual replenishment. Rapidly declining water levels are increasing the costs of water and are creating water shortages during periods of peak demand. To meet both the current and anticipated water demands, the Southern Nevada Water Supply Project is being constructed to import additional water from nearby Lake Mead. Agriculture in the area is very limited, and primarily uses reclaimed waste water for irrigation. The chief water demands in the area are thus municipal and industrial, with the former predominating. This study was designed to determine how best the Las Vegas Valley Water District, supplier of 80 percent of the domestic water, might integrate the use of the existing ground water and anticipated imported surface water. Additionally the consequences of application of certain provisions in the Nevada Water Law were examined to determine their effects on the ground-water system and costs of water. To achieve these objectives, a dynamic programming technique was utilized. The problem as formulated consists of a single decision variable, single state variable dynamic programming algorithm evaluated over a fifty-year planning horizon at monthly intervals. Three alternative solutions, with different ground-water law constraints are evaluated. In all solutions certain basic operating rules regarding ground-water pumping distribution and use of surface-water systems are kept constant. The problem is considered as deterministic in all respects. Recharge to ground water is assumed to equal the estimated average annual replenishment evenly distributed over the year and additionally is not considered to be a function of average basin ground water potential. The only surface supply, Lake Mead, is considered to operate at near constant elevation and not be subject to shortage conditions. In light of the size of Lake Mead, the Colorado River flow and the size of Nevada's allotment, 300,000 ac ft, the latter assumption is reasonable. Demand for water is considered as a known function of time. Optimization of conjunctive use for the Water District is based on the objective function of minimizing water production costs. Costs of distributing water are considered to be constant regardless of source, and so are not included. Also, fixed costs of amortizing the pipeline project and well fields are not considered. Results of the study are presented as a series of policy traces under each of the three alternatives considered. These traces describe the ground-water basin response under optimal operating conditions, given an estimate as to the present worth of ground-water pumping rights, and prescribe monthly water-procurement schedules for the operation of the Water District.     

REGIONAL WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT GREAT MIAMI RIVER,OHIO1

The Miami Conservancy District was organized shortly after the disastrous flood of March 1913 to provide flood protection to municipalities along the Great Miami River. The District system is a classic solution which was entirely locally financed and is now operated and maintained by special benefit assessments on 45,000 parcels of property, 9 cities and 5 counties.     

STABILITY AND REACH LENGTH IN WATER SURFACE PROFILE DETERMINATION1

ABSTRACT: Extension of basic step methods of backwater computation to reaches of finite length is examined. Accuracies of commonly accepted hydraulic loss equations under particular water surface profile conditions are compared. Simulation of energy lines within a reach by parabolic curves is found to minimize error provided orientation of the axis of the parabola is selected in accordance with prevailing hydraulic conditions. Theoretical basis for an index reach length beyond which single-step computation from end to end of the reach must be in error is developed. Reduction of this reach length by suitable factors tailored to hydraulic conditions yields a mathematically defined allowable reach length for backwater computation. When reach length does not exceed this allowable reach length, no significant error may be detected. Automatic insertion of synthetic cross sections interpolated between surveyed cross sections when these are inadvertently spaced too far apart enables computation to proceed. This device is error-free for prismatic channls but may introduce error for irregular natural channels. Preliminary trials indicate that results so obtained may be accepted provided the fall in the original reach does not exceed from one to two feet. When this is exceeded, additional cross sections should be surveyed.