Bayesian areal wombling via adjacency modeling

Recently, public health professionals and other geostatistical researchers have shown increasing interest in boundary analysis, the detection or testing of zones or boundaries that reveal sharp changes in the values of spatially oriented variables. For areal data (i.e., data which consist only of sums or averages over geopolitical regions), Lu and Carlin (Geogr Anal 37: 265–285, 2005) suggested a fully model-based framework for areal wombling using Bayesian hierarchical models with posterior summaries computed using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, and showed the approach to have advantages over existing non-stochastic alternatives. In this paper, we develop Bayesian areal boundary analysis methods that estimate the spatial neighborhood structure using the value of the process in each region and other variables that indicate how similar two regions are. Boundaries may then be determined by the posterior distribution of either this estimated neighborhood structure or the regional mean response differences themselves. Our methods do require several assumptions (including an appropriate prior distribution, a normal spatial random effect distribution, and a Bernoulli distribution for a set of spatial weights), but also deliver more in terms of full posterior inference for the boundary segments (e.g., direct probability statements regarding the probability that a particular border segment is part of the boundary). We illustrate three different remedies for the computing difficulties encountered in implementing our method. We use simulation to compare among existing purely algorithmic approaches, the Lu and Carlin (2005) method, and our new adjacency modeling methods. We also illustrate more practical modeling issues (e.g., covariate selection) in the context of a breast cancer late detection data set collected at the county level in the state of Minnesota.     

Effect of Wastewater Treatment Facility Closure on Endocrine Disrupting Chemicals in a Coastal Plain Stream

Wastewater treatment facility (WWTF) closures are rare environmental remediation events; offering unique insight into contaminant persistence, long‐term wastewater impacts, and ecosystem recovery processes. The U.S. Geological Survey assessed the fate of select endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDC) in surface water and streambed sediment one year before and one year after closure of a long‐term WWTF located within the Spirit Creek watershed at Fort Gordon, Georgia. Sample sites included a WWTF‐effluent control located upstream from the outfall, three downstream effluent‐impacted sites located between the outfall and Spirit Lake, and one downstream from the lake's outfall. Prior to closure, the 2.2‐km stream segment downstream from the WWTF outfall was characterized by EDC concentrations significantly higher (α = 0.05) than at the control site; indicating substantial downstream transport and limited in‐stream attenuation of EDC, including pharmaceuticals, estrogens, alkylphenol ethoxylate (APE) metabolites, and organophosphate flame retardants (OPFR). Wastewater‐derived pharmaceutical, APE metabolites, and OPFR compounds were also detected in the outflow of Spirit Lake, indicating the potential for EDC transport to aquatic ecosystems downstream of Fort Gordon under effluent discharge conditions. After the WWTF closure, no significant differences in concentrations or numbers of detected EDC compounds were observed between control and downstream locations. The results indicated EDC pseudo‐persistence under preclosure, continuous supply conditions, with rapid attenuation following WWTF closure. Low concentrations of EDC at the control site throughout the study and comparable concentrations in downstream locations after WWTF closure indicated additional, continuing, upstream contaminant sources within the Spirit Creek watershed. ©2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

A comparison of employment growth and stability before and after the Fort Worth tornado

This study examined the time series pattern of employment growth and stability in Fort Worth, Texas taking into account the March 28, 2000 tornado. The tornado is treated econometrically as an intervention and both the mean and conditional variance of employment growth were estimated. Overall, this regional labor market experienced a decline in the employment growth rate following the tornado. Among the sectors that exhibited differences in employment dynamics between the pre- and post-tornado periods, the mining sector experienced a significant increase in employment growth following the tornado while the service andwholesale, retail trade sectors experienced significant declines in employment growth in the post-tornado period. The manufacturing, service, and wholesale, retail trade sectors were characterized by greater stability (i.e., a lower level of employment growth volatility) in the post-tornado period than in the pre-tornado period. Interestingly, in several sectors, no differences in the time series dynamics of employment growth were detected between the pre- and post-tornado periods. These sectors included construction, finance, insurance, real estate, government, and transportation and public utilities.     

Patterns and ecological predictors of age-related performance in female North American barn swallows,Hirundo rustica erythrogaster

Life history theory describes the optimization of important trade-offs within an individual’s lifetime and predicts that an individual’s reproductive performance (RP) will improve up until a point of senescence. Despite abundant evidence for this pattern, relatively few studies consider the mechanisms associated with age-related improvements in RP. In this study, we aimed to describe patterns of age-related RP (seasonal fledgling production) in female North American barn swallows (Hirundo rustica erythrogaster) using a longitudinal data set to test multiple hypotheses about the social, morphological, and ecological factors underlying this prominent life history pattern. To address these objectives, we used generalized linear mixed models in a three-step series of analyses in which we assessed (1) patterns of female age-related RP; (2) the influence of age on changes in social, morphological, and ecological factors; and (3) whether the changes in RP were concomitant with changes in these factors. We found that (1) females showed patterns of age-related reproduction, in which performance increased in the first 2 years of breeding and decreased thereafter, (2) female tail streamer length increased and the extent of breast coloration increased then decreased significantly with age, and (3) changes in morphological traits did not covary with changes in reproductive performance over time. Our within-individual results highlight the importance of considering explicit links between morphology and reproductive performance that are not easily captured by population-level analyses.     

国外有机市政固废批处理厌氧消化工艺介绍

批处理厌氧消化工艺是厌氧处理技术的一种,其通过序批式进料、连续式操作的设计,可简化物料的预处理工序和厌氧发酵过程控制,从而达到降低投资成本及运营费用的目的,使其相对其他固废厌氧处理技术形成优势。调整厌氧渗滤液回收循环方式及批处理反应器的数量,可形成一系列改进后的批处理工艺,包括序批式和阶段式的批处理系统。有机市政固废经厌氧消化后,不仅可以减量化及稳定化,而且还可以获取能源及回收有用物质。文章对目前国外主要的有机固废批处理厌氧消化工艺进行了分析,并针对国内的固废特征给出了建议。     

Inferred effects of cloud deposition on forest floor nutrient cycling and microbial properties along a short elevation gradient

Cloud water deposition often increases with elevation, and it is widely accepted that this cloud water increases acid loading to upland forest ecosystems. A study was undertaken in south-eastern Quebec to determine if a 250 m elevation gradient (i.e. 420-665 m), along a uniform sugar-maple stand on the slope of Mount Orford, corresponded to a pH gradient in the forest floor and to predictable changes in soil nutrient availability and microbial properties. Precipitation data from a nearby study, and a photographic survey, provided presumptive evidence that this elevation gradient corresponded to a strong gradient in cloud water deposition. Forest floor temperature did not differ significantly across elevations. Forest floor moisture content was significantly higher, whereas pH and exchangeable Ca and Mg were significantly lower, at the higher elevations. Average seasonal net nitrification rates, determined by long-term laboratory incubations, did not differ significantly across elevations, whereas average seasonal net ammonification rates were significantly higher at higher elevations. Basal respiration rates and microbial biomass did not differ significantly across elevations, but metabolic quotient was significantly higher at higher elevations indicating possible environmental stress on forest floor microbial communities due to cloud water deposition. Anaerobic N mineralisation rates were significantly higher at higher elevations suggesting that N-limited microbial communities frequently exposed to cloud cover can be important short-term sinks for atmospheric N, thereby contributing to increase the active-N fraction of forest floors. We conclude that, where no significant changes in vegetation or temperature occur, elevation gradients can still be used to understand the spatial variability of nutrient cycles and microbial properties.     

Exploring Environmental Data in a Highly Immersive Virtual Reality Environment

Geography inherently fills a 3D space and yet we struggle with displaying geography using, primarily, 2D display devices. Virtual environments offer a more realistically-dimensioned display space and this is being realized in the expanding area of research on 3D Geographic Information Systems (GISs). Traditionally, a GIS has only limited tools for statistical analysis, and 3D GIS research has concentrated on the visualization of the geographical terrain. Here we discuss linking multivariate statistical graphics to geography in the highly immersive C2 virtual reality environment at Iowa State University using mid-Atlantic streams data.     

Spatial patterns in forest composition and standing dead red spruce in montane forests of the Adirondacks and northern Appalachians

The decline of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) in montane forests of the northeastern United States has been previously reported. The objective of this study was to assess spatial patterns, if any, in standing dead red spruce stems in the Adirondacks of New York and northern Appalachians of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. A stratified random sample of 19 mountains along a west to east transect in the Adirondacks and the northern Appalachians showed that the live basal area of all species was highest in the White Mountains (34.6 m² ha^–1) and lowest in the Adirondack Mountains (23.7 m² ha^–1) in the Green Mountains was significantly lower than in any other region. Intact standing dead red spruce in the Adirondack and Green Mountains (30%) was significantly higher than that in the three eastern clusters (14%). The amount of intact standing dead red spruce trees increased with elevation in only the western part of the region. With the exception of the Adirondacks, there was a greater average percent dead red spruce on the west side than on the east side of each mountain. The sum of standing dead for other tree species (average 13%) showed no statistically significant patterns with region, elevation or aspect, and was significantly lower than the amount of total dead red spruce (average 42%). The standing dead red spruce patterns we observed cannot be associated with any specific causal factors at this time.