Short-Term Forecasting of Nitrogen Dioxide (NO<Subscript>2</Subscript>) Levels Using a Hybrid Statistical and Air Mass History Modelling Approach

A novel hybrid model has been developed to support the provision of real-time air quality forecasts. Statistical techniques have been applied in parallel with air mass history modelling to provide an efficient and accurate forecasting system with the ability to identify high NO₂ events, which tend to be the episodes of most significance in Ireland. Air mass history modelling and k-means clustering are used to identify air mass types that lead to high NO₂ levels in Ireland. Trajectory matching techniques allow data associated with these air masses to be partitioned during model development. Non-parametric regression (NPR) has been applied to describe nonlinear variations in concentration levels with wind speed, direction and season and produce a set of linearized factors which, together with other meteorological variables, are employed as inputs to a multiple linear regression. The model uses an innovative integrated approach to combine the NPR with the air mass history modelling results. On validation, a correlation coefficient of 0.75 was obtained, and 91 % of daily maximum (hourly averaged) NO₂ predictions were within a factor of two of the measured value. High pollution events were well captured, as indicated by strong agreement between measured and modelled high percentile values. The model requires only simple input data, does not require an emission inventory and utilises very low computational resources. It represents an accurate and efficient means of producing real-time air quality forecasts and, when used in combination with forecaster experience, is a useful tool for identifying periods of poor air quality 24 h in advance. The hybrid approach outlined in this paper can easily be applied to produce high-quality forecasts of both NO₂ and additional pollutants at new locations/countries where historical monitoring data are available.     

Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species’ climate‐change vulnerability

Climate‐change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species’ vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. We took a more comprehensive approach that incorporates exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to adapt to climate change. We applied our approach to anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and nonanadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), threatened salmonids within the Columbia River Basin (U.S.A.). We quantified exposure on the basis of scenarios of future stream temperature and flow, and we represented sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change with metrics of habitat quality, demographic condition, and genetic diversity. Both species were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change at low elevations and in their southernmost habitats. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the 2 species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multispecies conservation. Based on our results, we suggest that CCVAs be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework and be used to refine hypotheses, guide research, and compare plausible scenarios of species’ vulnerability to climate change.     

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land‐use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate‐change mitigation

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land‐use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate‐change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate‐change impacts; however, these policies will influence land‐use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land‐use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land‐use changes (1500–2005) based on the global gridded land‐use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land‐use changes under alternative climate‐change scenarios (2005–2100). Future land‐use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26‐58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land‐use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate‐change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species–area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land‐use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land‐use changes in hotspots or by lessening the impact of future land‐use activities on biodiversity within hotspots.     

Sensitivity of streamflow and microbial water quality to future climate and land use change in the West of Ireland

Regional Environmental Change - This study applied catchment modeling to examine the potential effects of climate change and future land management variations on streamflow and microbial transport...     

Examining the coupling of carbon and nitrogen cycles in Appalachian streams: the role of dissolved organic nitrogen

Although regional and global models of nitrogen (N) cycling typically focus on nitrate, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) is the dominant form of nitrogen export from many watersheds and thus the dominant form of dissolved N in many streams. Our understanding of the processes controlling DON export from temperate forests is poor. In pristine systems, where biological N limitation is common, N contained in recalcitrant organic matter (OM) can dominate watershed N losses. This recalcitrant OM often has moderately constrained carbon:nitrogen (C:N) molar ratios (approximately 25-55) and therefore, greater DON losses should be observed in sites where there is greater total dissolved organic carbon (DOC) loss. In regions where anthropogenic N pollution is high, it has been suggested that increased inorganic N availability can reduce biological demand for organic N and therefore increase watershed DON losses. This would result in a positive correlation between inorganic and organic N concentrations across sites with varying N availability. In four repeated synoptic surveys of stream water chemistry from forested watersheds along an N loading gradient in the southern Appalachians, we found surprisingly little correlation between DON and DOC concentrations. Further, we found that DON concentrations were always significantly correlated with watershed N loading and stream water [NO3-] but that the direction of this relationship was negative in three of the four surveys. The C:N molar ratio of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in streams draining watersheds with high N deposition was very high relative to other freshwaters. This finding, together with results from bioavailability assays in which we directly manipulated C and N availabilities, suggests that heterotrophic demand for labile C can increase as a result of dissolved inorganic N (DIN) loading, and that heterotrophs can preferentially remove N-rich molecules from DOM. These results are inconsistent with the two prevailing hypotheses that dominate interpretations of watershed DON loss. Therefore, we propose a new hypothesis, the indirect carbon control hypothesis, which recognizes that heterotrophic demand for N-rich DOM can keep stream water DON concentrations low when N is not limiting and heterotrophic demand for labile C is high.     

Local physical habitat quality cloud the effect of predicted pesticide runoff from agricultural land in Danish streams

The combination of intensive agricultural activities and the close connectivity between land and stream emphasise the potential risk of pesticide exposure in Danish streams. Benthic macroinvertebrates are applied in the assessment of stream ecological status, and some sensitive species have been shown to respond strongly to brief pulses of pesticide contamination. In this study we investigate the impact of agriculturally derived pesticides on stream macroinvertebrate communities in Denmark. As a measure of toxic pressure we apply the Runoff Potential. We investigated a total of 212 streams. These were grouped into distinct classes according to the magnitude of pesticide contamination in the period from 2003-2006. A total of 24 different macroinvertebrate indices were applied to detect effects of pesticide runoff (e.g. the SPEAR-index and the number of EPT taxa). We found high predicted pesticide runoff in 39% of the streams, but we found no significant effect of predicted pesticide exposure on stream macroinvertebrate indices. We, additionally, examined the influence of a series of environmental parameters ranging from site scale to catchment scale on the macroinvertebrate community. Relative proportions of gravel, sand and silt in bed sediments explained most of the variation in macroinvertebrate indices as well as the upstream riparian habitat quality. We suggest that the Runoff Potential model overestimate pesticide runoff contamination in Danish streams due the presence of buffer strips enforced by Danish legislation. When pesticide runoff contamination is low to moderate, poor physical properties (indirectly related to agricultural activity) are the main impediment for the ecological quality of Danish streams.     

Reducing fall risk by improving balance control: development, evaluation and knowledge-translation of new approaches

Problem

Falling is a leading cause of serious injury, loss of independence, and nursing-home admission in older adults. Impaired balance control is a major contributing factor.

Methods

Results from our balance-control studies have been applied in the development of new and improved interventions and assessment tools. Initiatives to facilitate knowledge-translation of this work include setting up a new network of balance clinics, a research-user network and a research-user advisory board.

Results

Our findings support the efficacy of the developed balance-training methods, balance-enhancing footwear, neuro-prosthesis, walker design, handrail-cueing system, and handrail-design recommendations in improving specific aspects of balance control.

Impact on Knowledge Users

A new balance-assessment tool has been implemented in the first new balance clinic, a new balance-enhancing insole is available through pharmacies and other commercial outlets, and handrail design recommendations have been incorporated into 10 Canadian and American building codes. Work in progress is expected to have further impact.     

Prenatal diagnosis of Myhre syndrome with a heterozygous pathogenic variant in SMAD4 gene presented with thick nuchal translucency and cardiac abnormalities

Prenatal testing was performed in a 39-year-old Chinese pregnant woman referred for increased nuchal translucency measuring 5.7 mm. Non-invasive prenatal testing and SNP array study on amniotic fluid samples were normal. Whole exome sequencing (WES) was initiated further as the fetus had pericardial effusion of 1.2 mm, thickened myocardium over the right ventricular lateral wall and aberrant right subclavian artery. A detailed fetal echocardiogram also revealed persistent left superior vena cava and dilated coronary sinus at 20 weeks. From whole exome sequencing of the trio, a de novo heterozygous variant NM_005359.5(SMAD4): c.1499T>C (p.Ile500Thr) was detected. This pathogenic variant has been reported in the postnatal case cohort of Myhre syndrome. This condition is characterized by facial dysmorphism, intellectual disability, hearing loss, skeletal abnormalities and potential life threatening respiratory or cardiovascular manifestations. Termination of pregnancy was performed at 23 weeks. Small chins, pre-axial polydactyly, brachydactyly and clinodactyly were noted in the abortus. Ultrasound findings of increased nuchal translucency, thickened myocardium and pericardial effusion prompted further genetic evaluation for the prenatal diagnosis of Myhre syndrome by whole exome sequencing.     

Constructed wetlands integrated with microbial fuel cells for COD and nitrogen removal affected by plant and circuit operation mode

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Organic matter and NH4+-N are two major pollutants in domestic sewage. This study evaluated the influence of plant and circuit operation mode on the...     

Experimental measurements and numerical simulations of the transport and retention of nanocrystal CdSe/ZnS quantum dots in saturated porous media: effects of pH,organic ligand,and natural organic matter

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The risks of environmental exposures of quantum dot (QD) nanoparticles are increasing, but these risks are difficult to assess because fundamental...