On the Design of Computer-Based Models for Integrated Environmental Science

The current research agenda in environmental science is dominated by calls to integrate science and policy to better understand and manage links between social (human) and natural (nonhuman) processes. Freshwater resource management is one area where such calls can be heard. Designing computer-based models for integrated environmental science poses special challenges to the research community. At present it is not clear whether such tools, or their outputs, receive much practical policy or planning application. It is argued that this is a result of (1) a lack of appreciation within the research modeling community of the characteristics of different decision-making processes including policy, planning, and (2) participation, (3) a lack of appreciation of the characteristics of different decision-making contexts, (4) the technical difficulties in implementing the necessary support tool functionality, and (5) the socio-technical demands of designing tools to be of practical use. This article presents a critical synthesis of ideas from each of these areas and interprets them in terms of design requirements for computer-based models being developed to provide scientific information support for policy and planning. Illustrative examples are given from the field of freshwater resources management. Although computer-based diagramming and modeling tools can facilitate processes of dialogue, they lack adequate simulation capabilities. Component-based models and modeling frameworks provide such functionality and may be suited to supporting problematic or messy decision contexts. However, significant technical (implementation) and socio-technical (use) challenges need to be addressed before such ambition can be realized.     

ESTIMATING MEAN AND VARIANCE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SAMPLES WITH BELOW DETECTION LIMIT OBSERVATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Left-censoring of data sets complicates subsequent statistical analyses. Generally, substitution or deletion methods provide poor estimates of the mean and variance of censored samples. These substitution and deletion methods include the use of values above the detection limit (DL) only, or substitution of 0, DL/2 or the DL for the below DL values during the calculation of mean and variance. A variety of statistical methods provides better estimators for different types of distributions and censoring. Maximum likelihood and order statistics methods compare favorably to the substitution or deletion methods. Selected statistical methods applicable to left-censoring of environmental data sets are reviewed with the purpose of demonstrating the use of these statistical methods for coping with Type I (and Type II) left-censoring of normally and log-normally distributed environmental data sets. A PC program (UNCENSOR) is presented that implements these statistical methods. Problems associated with data sets with multiple DLs are discussed relative to censoring methods for life and fatigue tests as recently applied to water quality data sets.     

NUTRIENT MASS BALANCE AND TRENDS,MOBILE RIVER BASIN,ALABAMA, GEORGIA,AND MISSISSIPPI1

ABSTRACT: A nutrient mass balance — accounting for nutrient inputs from atmospheric deposition, fertilizer, crop nitrogen fixation, and point source effluents; and nutrient outputs, including crop harvest and storage — was calculated for 18 subbasins in the Mobile River Basin, and trends (1970 to 1997) were evaluated as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Agricultural nonpoint nitrogen and phosphorus sources and urban nonpoint nitrogen sources are the most important factors associated with nutrients in this system. More than 30 percent of nitrogen yield in two basins and phosphorus yield in eight basins can be attributed to urban point source nutrient inputs. The total nitrogen yield (1.3 tons per square mile per year) for the Tombigbee River, which drains a greater percentage of agricultural (row crop) land use, was larger than the total nitrogen yield (0.99 tons per square mile per year) for the Alabama River. Decreasing trends of total nitrogen concentrations in the Tombigbee and Alabama Rivers indicate that a reduction occurred from 1975 to 1997 in the nitrogen contributions to Mobile Bay from the Mobile River. Nitrogen concentrations also decreased (1980 to 1995) in the Black Warrior River, one of the major tributaries to the Tombigbee River. Total phosphorus concentrations increased from 1970 to 1996 at three urban influenced sites on the Etowah River in Georgia. Multiple regression analysis indicates a distinct association between water quality in the streams of the Mobile River drainage basin and agricultural activities in the basin.     

Pharmaceuticals and other organic chemicals in selected north-central and northwestern Arkansas streams

Recently, our attention has focused on the low level detection of many antibiotics, pharmaceuticals, and other organic chemicals in water resources. The limited studies available suggest that urban or rural streams receiving wastewater effluent are more susceptible to contamination. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of antibiotics, pharmaceuticals, and other organic chemicals at 18 sites on seven selected streams in Arkansas, USA, during March, April, and August 2004. Water samples were collected upstream and downstream from the influence of effluent discharges in northwestern Arkansas and at one site on a relatively undeveloped stream in north-central Arkansas. At least one antibiotic, pharmaceutical, or other organic chemical was detected at all sites, except at Spavinaw Creek near Mayesville, Arkansas. The greatest number of detections was observed at Mud Creek downstream from an effluent discharge, including 31 pharmaceuticals and other organic chemicals. The detection of these chemicals occurred in higher frequency at sites downstream from effluent discharges compared to those sites upstream from effluent discharges; total chemical concentration was also greater downstream. Wastewater effluent discharge increased the concentrations of detergent metabolites, fire retardants, fragrances and flavors, and steroids in these streams. Antibiotics and associated degradation products were only found at two streams downstream from effluent discharges. Overall, 42 of the 108 chemicals targeted in this study were found in water samples from at least one site, and the most frequently detected organic chemicals included caffeine, phenol, para-cresol, and acetyl hexamethyl tetrahydro naphthalene (AHTN).     

Evidence of Large-Scale Chronic Eutrophication in the Great Barrier Reef: Quantification of Chlorophyll a Thresholds for Sustaining Coral Reef Communities

Long-term monitoring data show that hard coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) has reduced by >70 % over the past century. Although authorities and many marine scientists were in denial for many years, it is now widely accepted that this reduction is largely attributable to the chronic state of eutrophication that exists throughout most of the GBR. Some reefs in the far northern GBR where the annual mean chlorophyll a (Chl a) is in the lower range of the proposed Eutrophication Threshold Concentration for Chl a (~0.2–0.3 mg m⁻³) show little or no evidence of degradation over the past century. However, the available evidence suggests that coral diseases and the crown-of-thorns starfish will proliferate in such waters and hence the mandated eutrophication Trigger values for Chl a (~0.4–0.45 mg m⁻³) will need to be decreased to ~0.2 mg m⁻³ for sustaining coral reef communities.     

A review of the Texas,USA San Jacinto Superfund site and the deposition of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in the San Jacinto River and Houston Ship Channel

The San Jacinto River (SJR) waste pits that lie just under the 1–10 overpass in eastern Harris County east of Houston, Texas, USA, were created in the 1960s as dumping grounds for paper mill waste. The deposition of this waste led to accumulation of highly toxic polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCCDDs/PCDFs) over the course of several decades. After abandonment, the waste material eventually became submerged under the waters of the SJR, resulting in widespread environmental contamination that currently constitutes a significant health concern for eastern Harris County communities. The original waste pits were rediscovered in 2005, and the San Jacinto waste site is now a designated EPA superfund site. The objective of this review then is to discuss the history and current state of containment around the San Jacinto waste pits and analyze spatial and temporal trends in the PCDD/PCDF deposition through the SJR system from the data available. We will discuss the current exposure and health risks represented by the Superfund site and the SJR system itself, as well as the discovery of liver, kidney, brain (glioma), and retinoblastoma cancer clusters in eastern Harris County across multiple census tracts that border the Superfund site. We will also cover the two primary management options, containment versus removal of the waste from the Superfund and provide recommendations for increased monitoring of existing concentrations of polychlorinated waste in the SJR and its nearby associated communities.     

Reproduction on the edge: large-scale patterns of individual performance in a marine invertebrate

Reproductive output is a central attribute of life history, providing a measure of individual and population performance. The fields of ecology, biogeography, and evolutionary biology take disparate approaches in addressing spatial variation in reproduction, and thus we lack clear predictions for how reproductive output should vary geographically. We empirically investigate these contrasting theoretical approaches by determining geographic patterns in reproductive output for intertidal populations of the purple sea urchin, Strongylocentrotus purpuratus, at 15 sites spanning a large geographic distance (9 degrees span of latitude) from central California, USA, to Baja California, Mexico. Contrary to predictions from biogeography, some of the highest values of reproductive output are at sites near the species' southern range boundary. Additionally, sea urchins do not exhibit a latitudinal gradient in reproduction, but rather show considerable mesoscale variation in reproductive output. Spatial analyses reveal that this variation is correlated with coastal topographic features that are known to influence the pattern of nearshore nutrient flux and circulation. We hypothesize that urchins' reproductive output may be driven by the spatial distribution of their food supply, drift macroalgae, the abundance of which is influenced by both nutrient supply and alongshore transport processes that are coupled to topographic features. Large-scale studies such as this provide valuable insight into the causes of species' range limits, population connectivity, habitat reserve design, and forecasting the effects of climate change on species' distributions.