Change point analysis of phosphorus trends in the Illinois River (Oklahoma) demonstrates the effects of watershed management

Detecting water quality improvements following watershed management changes is complicated by flow-dependent concentrations and nonlinear or threshold responses that are difficult to detect with traditional statistical techniques. In this study, we evaluated the long-term trends (1997-2009) in total P (TP) concentrations in the Illinois River of Oklahoma, and some of its major tributaries, using flow-adjusted TP concentrations and regression tree analysis to identify specific calendar dates in which change points in P trends may have occurred. Phosphorus concentrations at all locations were strongly correlated with stream flow. Flow-adjusted TP concentrations increased at all study locations in the late 1990s, but this trend was related to a change in monitoring practices where storm flow samples were specifically targeted after 1998. Flow-adjusted TP concentrations decreased in the two Illinois River sites after 2003. This change coincided with a significant decrease in effluent TP concentrations originating with one of the largest municipal wastewater treatment facilities in the basin. Conversely, flow-adjusted TP concentrations in one tributary increased, but this stream received treated effluent from a wastewater facility where effluent TP did not decrease significantly over the study period. Results of this study demonstrate how long-term trends in stream TP concentrations are difficult to quantify without consistent long-term monitoring strategies and how flow adjustment is likely mandatory for examining these trends. Furthermore, the study demonstrates how detecting changes in long-term water quality data sets requires statistical methods capable of identifying change point and nonlinear responses.     

Biophysical‐Regulatory Classification and Profiling of Streams Across Management Units and Ecoregions1

Caruso, Brian S. and Joshua Haynes, 2011. Biophysical‐Regulatory Classification and Profiling of Streams Across Management Units and Ecoregions. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 00(0):1‐22. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00522.x Abstract: Aquatic resources management in the United States (U.S.) under Clean Water Act Section 404 has become more complex after recent Supreme Court decisions and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guidance. Many intermittent/ephemeral and headwater streams may not be jurisdictional if they lack a significant nexus with navigable waters. Streams in semiarid USEPA Region 8 were classified based on hydrologic permanence and stream order using National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) Plus and GIS to provide information across broad spatial scales to aid with jurisdictional determinations (JDs). Four classes were developed for profiling across management units and ecoregions. Based on medium‐resolution NHDPlus data, intermittent streams comprise >¾, and first order streams constitute >½ of the total stream length in Region 8. Mountain states and ecoregions have the largest percentage of perennial first order streams, whereas the Dakotas, plains, and desert ecoregions have the greatest percentages of intermittent first order and intermittent higher order streams. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, >50% of reaches are intermittent first order, and 9% are perennial first order. NHDPlus data can significantly underestimate the length of headwater and intermittent streams, but can still be a valuable tool to help develop stream classes and for regional JD planning and analysis. Refinement of the stream classes using high resolution NHD data and other key catchment parameters can improve their utility for JDs.     

Estimating trend precision and power to detect trends across grouped count data

Ecologists commonly use grouped or clustered count data to estimate temporal trends in counts, abundance indices, or abundance. For example, the U.S. Breeding Bird Survey data represent multiple counts of birds from within each of multiple, spatially defined routes. Despite a reliance on grouped counts, analytical methods for prospectively estimating precision of trend estimates or statistical power to detect trends that explicitly acknowledge the characteristics of grouped count data are undescribed. These characteristics include the fact that the sampling variance is an increasing function of the mean, and that sampling and group-level variance estimates are generally estimated on different scales (the sampling and log scales, respectively). We address these issues for repeated sampling of a single population using an analytical approach that has the flavor of a generalized linear mixed model, specifically that of a negative binomial-distributed count variable with random group effects. The count mean, including grand intercept, trend, and random group effects, is modeled linearly on the log scale, while sampling variance of the mean is estimated on the log scale via the delta method. Results compared favorably with those derived using Monte Carlo simulations. For example, at trend = 5% per temporal unit, differences in standard errors and in power were modest relative to those estimated by simulation (< or = /11/% and < or = /16/%, respectively), with relative differences among power estimates decreasing to < or = /7/% when power estimated by simulations was > or = 0.50. Similar findings were obtained using data from nine surveys of fingernail clams in the Mississippi River. The proposed method is suggested (1) where simulations are not practical and relative precision or power is desired, or (2) when multiple precision or power calculations are required and where the accuracy of a fraction of those calculations will be confirmed using simulations.     

Windows of opportunity: historical and ecological controls on Berberis thunbergii invasions

Attempts to determine characteristics that render habitats invasible to nonnative species have met with limited success. This may be because most studies focus on modern habitat conditions and do not consider invasibility in the context of a historically dynamic landscape in which both the abundance of a species and the invasibility of a site may change. We surveyed 159 currently forested sites for the occurrence and abundance of Berberis thunbergii (Japanese barberry), an invasive, nonnative shrub in forests of the northeastern United States, relative to modern environmental conditions, contemporary logging activity, and two periods of historical land use. Berberis thunbergii occurred more frequently and was more abundant in post-agricultural forests than in continuously wooded sites. This relationship was stronger for agricultural sites that were abandoned and reforested after B. thunbergii was introduced to the region than for sites that reforested prior to B. thunbergii introduction. In contrast, recent forest harvesting did not influence the occurrence or abundance of B. thunbergii. Modern soil fertility explained a significant portion of the variation in B. thunbergii occurrence, whereas site history considerably improved predictions of population density and helped evaluate potential invasion mechanisms. While land-use history covaries with soil fertility and distance to putative seed sources, the strong relationship between modern abundance patterns and historical agriculture suggests that B. thunbergii colonized recently abandoned agricultural lands in the early 20th century and then persisted and spread locally during subsequent reforestation. Our results indicate that interpretations of both native community composition and modern plant invasions must consider the importance of historical landscape changes and the timing of species introduction along with current environmental conditions.     

Cumulative ecological and socioeconomic effects of forest policies in coastal Oregon.

Forest biodiversity policies in multi-ownership landscapes are typically developed in an uncoordinated fashion with little consideration of their interactions or possible unintended cumulative effects. We conducted an assessment of some of the ecological and socioeconomic effects of recently enacted forest management policies in the 2.3-million-ha Coast Range Physiographic Province of Oregon. This mountainous area of conifer and hardwood forests includes a mosaic of landowners with a wide range of goals, from wilderness protection to high-yield timber production. We projected forest changes over 100 years in response to logging and development using models that integrate land use change and forest stand and landscape processes. We then assessed responses to those management activities using GIS models of stand structure and composition, landscape structure, habitat models for focal terrestrial and aquatic species, timber production, employment, and willingness to pay for biodiversity protection. Many of the potential outcomes of recently enacted policies are consistent with intended goals. For example, we project the area of structurally diverse older conifer forest and habitat for late successional wildlife species to strongly increase. 'Other outcomes might not be consistent with current policies: for example, hardwoods and vegetation diversity strongly decline within and across owners. Some elements of biodiversity, including streams with high potential habitat for coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and sites of potential oak woodland, occur predominately outside federal lands and thus were not affected by the strongest biodiversity policies. Except for federal lands, biodiversity policies were not generally characterized in sufficient detail to provide clear benchmarks against which to measure the progress or success. We conclude that land management institutions and policies are not well configured to deal effectively with ecological issues that span broad spatial and temporal scales and that alternative policies could be constructed that more effectively provide for a mix of forest values from this region.     

Genetic structure of the southeastern United States loggerhead turtle nesting aggregation: evidence of additional structure within the peninsular Florida recovery unit

The southeastern United States supports one of two large loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting aggregations worldwide and is therefore critical to global conservation and recovery efforts for the species. Previous studies have established the presence of four demographically distinct nesting populations (management units) corresponding to beaches from (1) North Carolina through northeastern Florida, (2) peninsular Florida, (3) the Dry Tortugas, and (4) northwest Florida. Temporal and geographic genetic structure of the nesting aggregation was examined utilizing partial mitochondrial control region haplotype frequencies from 834 samples collected over the 2002 through 2008 nesting seasons from 19 beaches as well as previously published haplotype data. Most rookeries did not exhibit interannual genetic variation. However, the interannual variation detected did significantly impact the interpretation of spatial genetic structure in northeastern Florida. Based on pairwise F _ST comparisons, exact tests of population differentiation, and analysis of molecular variance, the present study upholds the distinctiveness of the four currently recognized management units and further supports recognition of discrete central eastern, southern (southeastern and southwestern), and central western Florida management units. Further subdivision may be warranted, but more intensive genetic sampling is required. In addition, tools such as telemetry and mark-recapture are needed to complement genetic data and overcome limitations of genetic markers in resolving loggerhead turtle rookery connectivity in the southeastern USA.     

Links among nitrification, nitrifier communities, and edaphic properties in contrasting soils receiving dairy slurry

Soil biotic and abiotic factors strongly influence nitrogen (N) availability and increases in nitrification rates associated with the application of manure. In this study, we examine the effects of edaphic properties and a dairy (Bos taurus) slurry amendment on N availability, nitrification rates and nitrifier communities. Soils of variable texture and clay mineralogy were collected from six USDA-ARS research sites and incubated for 28 d with and without dairy slurry applied at a rate of ~300 kg N ha(-1). Periodically, subsamples were removed for analyses of 2 M KCl extractable N and nitrification potential, as well as gene copy numbers of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and archaea (AOA). Spearman coefficients for nitrification potentials and AOB copy number were positively correlated with total soil C, total soil N, cation exchange capacity, and clay mineralogy in treatments with and without slurry application. Our data show that the quantity and type of clay minerals present in a soil affect nitrifier populations, nitrification rates, and the release of inorganic N. Nitrogen mineralization, nitrification potentials, and edaphic properties were positively correlated with AOB gene copy numbers. On average, AOA gene copy numbers were an order of magnitude lower than those of AOB across the six soils and did not increase with slurry application. Our research suggests that the two nitrifier communities overlap but have different optimum environmental conditions for growth and activity that are partly determined by the interaction of manure-derived ammonium with soil properties.     

Phosphorus load to surface water from bank erosion in a Danish lowland river basin

Phosphorus loss from bank erosion was studied in the catchment of River Odense, a lowland Danish river basin, with the aim of testing the hypothesis of whether stream banks act as major diffuse phosphorus (P) sources at catchment scale. Furthermore, the study aimed at analyzing the impact of different factors influencing bank erosion and P loss such as stream order, anthropogenic disturbances, width of uncultivated buffer strips, and the vegetation of buffer strips. A random stratified procedure in geographical information system (GIS) was used to select two replicate stream reaches covering different stream orders, channelized vs. naturally meandering channels, width of uncultivated buffer strips (≤ 2 m and ≥ 10 m), and buffer strips with different vegetation types. Thirty-six 100-m stream reaches with 180 bank plots and a total of 3000 erosion pins were established in autumn 2006, and readings were conducted during a 3-yr period (2006-2009). The results show that neither stream size nor stream disturbance measured as channelization of channel or the width of uncultivated buffer strip had any significant ( < 0.05) influence on bank erosion and P losses during each of the 3 yr studied. In buffer strips with natural trees bank erosion was significantly ( < 0.05) lower than in buffer strips dominated by grass and herbs. Gross and net P input from bank erosion amounted to 13.8 to 16.5 and 2.4 to 6.3 t P, respectively, in the River Odense catchment during the three study years. The net P input from bank erosion equaled 17 to 29% of the annual total P export and 21 to 62% of the annual export of P from diffuse sources from the River Odense catchment. Most of the exported total P was found to be bioavailable (71.7%) based on a P speciation of monthly suspended sediment samples collected at the outlet of the river basin. The results found in this study have a great importance for managers working with P mitigation and modeling at catchment scale.     

The Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) Framework: A Tool for Incorporating Climate Change into Natural Resource Management

As natural resource management agencies and conservation organizations seek guidance on responding to climate change, myriad potential actions and strategies have been proposed for increasing the long-term viability of some attributes of natural systems. Managers need practical tools for selecting among these actions and strategies to develop a tailored management approach for specific targets at a given location. We developed and present one such tool, the participatory Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework, which considers the effects of climate change in the development of management actions for particular species, ecosystems and ecological functions. Our framework is based on the premise that effective adaptation of management to climate change can rely on local knowledge of an ecosystem and does not necessarily require detailed projections of climate change or its effects. We illustrate the ACT framework by applying it to an ecological function in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho, USA)-water flows in the upper Yellowstone River. We suggest that the ACT framework is a practical tool for initiating adaptation planning, and for generating and communicating specific management interventions given an increasingly altered, yet uncertain, climate.