Identification of a novel PCB source through analysis of 209 PCB congeners by US EPA modified method 1668

PCDD/Fs and PCBs in surface waters and effluent waste streams flowing into New York/New Jersey Harbor were sampled by large volume filtration and solid phase extraction (XAD-2). Passive hexane samplers were employed in sewer trackdown. Extraction media were analyzed for 2,3,7,8 substituted PCDD/Fs and all 209 PCB congeners. The non-Aroclor PCB congener, 3,3^′-DiCB, was ubiquitous in the harbor and was found to be associated with pigment manufacture. Knowledge of inadvertent synthesis of non-Aroclor PCBs is not new but its magnitude and the generation of congeners with dioxin-like properties from this process is novel.     

Use and misuse of motor-vehicle crash death rates in assessing highway-safety performance

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of the article are to assess the extent to which comparisons of motor-vehicle crash death rates can be used to determine the effectiveness of highway-safety policies over time in a country or to compare policy effectiveness across countries. METHODS: Motor-vehicle crash death rates per mile traveled in the 50 U.S. states from 1980 to 2003 are used to show the influence on these rates of factors independent of highway-safety interventions. Multiple regression models relating state death rates to various measures related to urbanization and demographics are used. RESULTS: The analyses demonstrate strong relationships between state death rates and urbanization and demographics. Almost 60% of the variability among the state death rates can be explained by the independent variables in the multiple regression models. When the death rates for passenger vehicle occupants (i.e., excluding motorcycle, pedestrian, and other deaths) are used in the regression models, almost 70% of the variability in the rates can be explained by urbanization and demographics. CONCLUSIONS: The analyses presented in the article demonstrate that motor-vehicle crash death rates are strongly influenced by factors unrelated to highway-safety countermeasures. Overall death rates should not be used as a basis for judging the effectiveness (or ineffectiveness) of specific highway-safety countermeasures or to assess overall highway-safety policies, especially across jurisdictions. There can be no substitute for the use of carefully designed scientific evaluations of highway-safety interventions that use outcome measures directly related to the intervention; e.g., motorcyclist deaths should be used to assess the effectiveness of motorcycle helmet laws. While this may seem obvious, there are numerous examples in the literature of death rates from all crashes being used to assess the effectiveness of interventions aimed at specific subsets of crashes.     

Prey growth and size-dependent predation in juvenile estuarine fishes: experimental and model analyses

The outcome of predation interactions between growing, size-structured predator and prey cohorts is difficult to predict. We manipulated the food resources available to juvenile spot subject to predation from southern flounder in a 60-day replicated pond experiment to test the hypothesis that spot growing slowly would experience higher predation mortality and stronger selection against small individuals than those growing rapidly. A nearly threefold difference in average growth rate between fast- and slow-growth treatments led to twofold higher predation mortality of slow-growing spot. Relative to no-flounder controls, larger spot were overrepresented at the end of the experiment in both treatments, but the magnitude of flounder size selection was much greater in the slow-growth treatment. The experimental results agreed qualitatively, but not quantitatively, with predictions from a prior size-dependent foraging model. In particular, the model significantly underestimated observed shifts in spot size structure to larger sizes. We hypothesized that competitive release and associated increases in spot growth due to thinning by flounder might reconcile this difference, and extended the model to incorporate this process. We then used the model to estimate the relative contribution of these two confounded predator effects (size-selective predation and thinning) to observed shifts in spot size structure. Model simulations indicated that the combined effects of size-selective predation and thinning could account for nearly all of the observed shift in spot size structure, but that thinning was the more important process. Our results highlight the utility of combining experimental and modeling approaches to unravel the complexities underlying interactions between growing, size-structured predator and prey cohorts.     

Empirical evaluation of neutral theory

We describe a general framework for testing neutral theory. We summarize similarities and differences between ten different versions of neutral theory. Two central predictions of neutral theory are that species abundance distributions will follow a zero-sum multinomial distribution and that community composition will change over space due to dispersal limitation. We review all published empirical tests of neutral theory. With the exception of one type of test, all tests fail to support neutral theory. We identify and perform several new tests. Specifically, we develop a set of best practices for testing the fit of the zero-sum multinomial (ZSM) vs. a lognormal null hypothesis and apply this to a data set, concluding that the lognormal outperforms neutral theory on robust tests. We explore whether a priori parameterization of neutral theory is possible, and we conclude that it is not. We show that non-curve-fitting predictions readily derived from neutral theory are easily falsifiable. In toto, there is a current overwhelming weight of evidence against neutral theory. We suggest some next steps for neutral theory.     

Building resilience and adaptation to manage Arctic change

Unprecedented global changes caused by human actions challenge society's ability to sustain the desirable features of our planet. This requires proactive management of change to foster both resilience (sustaining those attributes that are important to society in the face of change) and adaptation (developing new socioecological configurations that function effectively under new conditions). The Arctic may be one of the last remaining opportunities to plan for change in a spatially extensive region where many of the ancestral ecological and social processes and feedbacks are still intact. If the feasibility of this strategy can be demonstrated in the Arctic, our improved understanding of the dynamics of change can be applied to regions with greater human modification. Conditions may now be ideal to implement policies to manage Arctic change because recent studies provide the essential scientific understanding, appropriate international institutions are in place, and Arctic nations have the wealth to institute necessary changes, if they choose to do so.     

Prediction of mono- and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon degradation in spiked soils using cyclodextrin extraction

In this study, an aqueous-based hydroxypropyl-beta-cyclodextrin (HPCD) extraction technique was assessed for its capacity to determine the microbially degradable fraction of mono- and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in four dissimilar soils. A linear relationship (slope=0.90; R2=0.89), approaching 1:1 between predicted and observed phenanthrene mineralization, was demonstrated for the cyclodextrin extraction; however, the water only extraction underestimated the microbially available fraction by a factor of three (slope=3.35; R2=0.64). With respect to determining the mineralizable fraction of p-cresol in soils, the cyclodextrin extraction (slope=0.94; R2=0.84) was more appropriate than the water extraction (slope=1.50; R2=0.36). Collectively, these results suggested that the cyclodextrin extraction technique was suitable for the prediction of the mineralizable fraction of representative PAHs and phenols present in dissimilar soils following increasing soil-contaminant contact times. The assessment of the microbial availability of contaminants in soils is important for a more representative evaluation of soil contamination.     

Stationary sources of airborne lead: a comparison of emissions data for southern California

Estimates for the air releases of lead from stationary point sources are considered for the South Coast Air Basin of California. We have examined four databases published by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the California Air Resources Board, and the South Coast Air Quality Management District. Our analysis indicates that none of the databases includes every emitting facility in the South Coast Air Basin of California and that other discrepancies among the databases exist. Additionally, the data have been analyzed for temporal variation, and some of the California Air Resources Board data are not current. The South Coast Air Quality Management District inventory covers 12 times more facilities in 2001 than in 1996. From this analysis, we conclude that all four of the databases would benefit by sharing data, increasing transparency, analyzing uncertainty, and standardizing emission estimation methods.     

Performance and diagnostic evaluation of ozone predictions by the Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality Forecast System during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study

A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ] model suite) has been developed by linking the National Centers for Environmental Estimation Eta model to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting ozone (O3) over the Northeastern United States during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Spatial and temporal performance of the Eta-CMAQ model for O3 was evaluated by comparison with observations from the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) network. This study also examines the ability of the model to simulate the processes governing the distributions of tropospheric O3 on the basis of the intensive datasets obtained at the four Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis, and Estimation (AIRMAP) and Harvard Forest (HF) surface sites. The episode analysis reveals that the model captured the buildup of O3 concentrations over the northeastern domain from August 11 and reproduced the spatial distributions of observed O3 very well for the daytime (8:00 p.m.) of both August 8 and 12 with most of normalized mean bias (NMB) within +/- 20%. The model reproduced 53.3% of the observed hourly O3 within a factor of 1.5 with NMB of 29.7% and normalized mean error of 46.9% at the 342 AQS sites. The comparison of modeled and observed lidar O3 vertical profiles shows that whereas the model reproduced the observed vertical structure, it tended to overestimate at higher altitude. The model reproduced 64-77% of observed NO2 photolysis rate values within a factor of 1.5 at the AIRMAP sites. At the HF site, comparison of modeled and observed O3/nitrogen oxide (NOx) ratios suggests that the site is mainly under strongly NOx-sensitive conditions (>53%). It was found that the modeled lower limits of the O3 production efficiency values (inferred from O3-CO correlation) are close to the observations.     

Rehabilitation and Flood Management Planning in a Steep,Boulder-Bedded Stream

This study demonstrates the integration of rehabilitation and flood management planning in a steep, boulder-bedded stream in a coastal urban catchment on the South Island of New Zealand. The Water of Leith, the primary stream flowing through the city of Dunedin, is used as a case study. The catchment is steep, with a short time of concentration and rapid hydrologic response, and the lower stream reaches are highly channelized with floodplain encroachment, a high potential for debris flows, significant flood risks, and severely degraded aquatic habitat. Because the objectives for rehabilitation and flood management in urban catchments are often conflicting, a number of types of analyses at both the catchment and the reach scales and careful planning with stakeholder consultation were needed for successful rehabilitation efforts. This included modeling and analysis of catchment hydrology, fluvial geomorphologic assessment, analysis of water quality and aquatic ecology, hydraulic modeling and flood risk evaluation, detailed feasibility studies, and preliminary design to optimize multiple rehabilitation and flood management objectives. The study showed that all of these analyses were needed for integrated rehabilitation and flood management and that some incremental improvements in stream ecological health, aesthetics, and public recreational opportunities could be achieved in this challenging environment. These methods should be considered in a range of types of stream rehabilitation projects.     

Elements of a cost-benefit analysis for improving salmonid spawning habitat in the River Wye

Contingent valuation methods were used to derive an economic value for salmonid spawning habitat restoration. Anglers' willingness to pay for such restoration and farmers' willingness to accept compensation for lost productivity due to the restoration were investigated using questionnaire and face-to-face surveys, respectively. These elements were combined with the Wye Habitat Improvement Project (WHIP) budget into a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) based upon direct use values only. The CBA assumed that the WHIP will improve salmonid stock. Different levels of investment were considered and the CBA gave a positive net present value indicating an economically viable project and benefit-to-cost ratios greater than one for minor projects. However, the number of anglers using the Wye would need to double or triple in order to justify the full WHIP budget. Management of an environmental resource must consider users' and stakeholders' needs and opinions. It was found that anglers on the Wye value habitat/scenery in its own right and that this played an important part in the activity. Farmers' agreement regarding involvement in such projects was more likely to be determined by their political and ethical views than receiving an economic compensation.