Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling

Both planning and design of municipal solid waste management systems require accurate prediction of solid waste generation. Yet achieving the anticipated prediction accuracy with regard to the generation trends facing many fast-growing regions is quite challenging. The lack of complete historical records of solid waste quantity and quality due to insufficient budget and unavailable management capacity has resulted in a situation that makes the long-term system planning and/or short-term expansion programs intangible. To effectively handle these problems based on limited data samples, a new analytical approach capable of addressing socioeconomic and environmental situations must be developed and applied for fulfilling the prediction analysis of solid waste generation with reasonable accuracy. This study presents a new approach--system dynamics modeling--for the prediction of solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban area based on a set of limited samples. To address the impact on sustainable development city wide, the practical implementation was assessed by a case study in the city of San Antonio, Texas (USA). This area is becoming one of the fastest-growing regions in North America due to the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The analysis presents various trends of solid waste generation associated with five different solid waste generation models using a system dynamics simulation tool--Stella. Research findings clearly indicate that such a new forecasting approach may cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties down when traditional statistical least-squares regression methods are unable to handle such issues.     

On estimating the exponent of power-law frequency distributions

Power-law frequency distributions characterize a wide array of natural phenomena. In ecology, biology, and many physical and social sciences, the exponents of these power laws are estimated to draw inference about the processes underlying the phenomenon, to test theoretical models, and to scale up from local observations to global patterns. Therefore, it is essential that these exponents be estimated accurately. Unfortunately, the binning-based methods traditionally used in ecology and other disciplines perform quite poorly. Here we discuss more sophisticated methods for fitting these exponents based on cumulative distribution functions and maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate their superior performance at estimating known exponents and provide details on how and when ecologists should use them. Our results confirm that maximum likelihood estimation outperforms other methods in both accuracy and precision. Because of the use of biased statistical methods for estimating the exponent, the conclusions of several recently published papers should be revisited.     

Long-term effects of sustained beef feedlot manure application on soil nutrients, corn silage yield, and nutrient uptake

A field study was initiated in 1992 to investigate the long-term impacts of beef feedlot manure application (composted and uncomposted) on nutrient accumulation and movement in soil, corn silage yield, and nutrient uptake. Two application strategies were compared: providing the annual crop nitrogen (N) requirement (N-based rate) or crop phosphorus (P) removal (P-based rate), as well as a comparison to inorganic fertilizer. Additionally, effects of a winter cover crop were evaluated. Irrigated corn (Zea mays L.) was produced annually from 1993 through 2002. Average silage yield and crop nutrient removal were highest with N-based manure treatments, intermediate with P-based manure treatments, and least with inorganic N fertilizer. Use of a winter cover crop resulted in silage yield reductions in four of ten years, most likely due to soil moisture depletion in the spring by the cover crop. However, the cover crop did significantly reduce NO3-N accumulation in the shallow vadose zone, particularly in latter years of the study. The composted manure N-based treatment resulted in significantly greater soil profile NO3-N concentration and higher soil P concentration near the soil surface. The accounting procedure used to calculate N-based treatment application rates resulted in acceptable soil profile NO3-N concentrations over the short term. While repeated annual manure application to supply the total crop N requirement may be acceptable for this soil for several years, sustained application over many years carries the risk of unacceptable soil P concentrations.     

Behavior and stability of organic contaminant droplets in aqueous solutions

The behavior of several hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs) in water at concentrations close to and above their maximum solubility values was studied. For this purpose, solutions of benzene, toluene, xylene, trichloroethylene (TCE) and a mixture of them were prepared in excess in freshwater and in saltwater, and solution stability was examined. High organic concentrations were found to remain stable in both freshwater and saltwater. In saltwater, for example, toluene and xylene concentrations remained as high as 14 and 26 times their solubilities, respectively, over a period of 6 days, while in freshwater, their concentrations remained 8 and 30 times their solubilities over the same period. This phenomenon is attributed to the presence of stable organic droplets, which were observed using optical microscopy. In addition, the transport of HOC droplets through sand is demonstrated, using an experimental system consisting of a saltwater source reservoir connected by a porous inactive sand layer to a freshwater collector reservoir.     

Tracking chlordane compositional and chiral profiles in soil and vegetation

The cycling of chlordane and other persistent organic pollutants through the environment must be comprehensively elucidated to assess adequately the human health risks posed from such contaminants. In this study the compositional and chiral profiles of weathered chlordane residues in the soil and vegetative compartments were investigated in order to provide details of the fate and transport of this persistent pesticide. Zucchini was planted in a greenhouse in three bays containing chlordane-contaminated soil. At harvest the vegetation and soil were extracted and analyzed for chlordane content using chiral gas chromatography/ion trap mass spectrometry. Both achiral and chiral chlordane components were quantified. The chlordane concentration in the rhizosphere (soil attached to roots) was significantly less than that in the bulk soil. However, the enantiomeric ratio of the chiral components and overall component ratios had changed little in the rhizosphere relative to the bulk soil. Significant levels of chlordane were detected in the vegetation, the amount varying in different plant tissues from a maximum in roots to a minimum in fruit. In addition to the chlordane concentration gradient in plant tissues, significant shifts in compositional profile, as indicated by the component ratios, and in chiral profile, as indicated by the enantiomeric ratio, of the contaminant were observed in the plant tissues. The data indicate that abiotic processes dominate the transport of the chlordane components through the soil to the plant. This is the first report of the effect of rapid biotic processes within the plant compartment on chlordane compositional and chiral profiles.     

Harvesting creates ecological traps: consequences of invisible mortality risks in predator-prey metacommunities

Models of two-patch predator-prey metacommunities are used to explore how the global predator population changes in response to additional mortality in one of the patches. This could describe the dynamics of a predator in an environment that includes a refuge area where that predator is protected and a spatially distinct ("risky") area where it is harvested. The predator's movement is based on its perceived fitness in the two patches, but the risk from the additional mortality is potentially undetectable; this often occurs when the mortality is from human harvesting or from a novel type of top predator. Increases in undetected mortality in the risky area can produce an abrupt collapse of either the refuge population or of the entire predator population when the mortality rate exceeds a threshold level. This is due to the attraction of the risky patch, which has abundant prey due to its high predator mortality. Extinction of the refuge predator population does not occur when the refuge patch has a higher maximum per capita predator growth rate than the exploited patch because the refuge is then more attractive when the predator is rare. The possibility of abrupt extinction of one or both patches from high densities in response to a small increase in harvest is often associated with alternative states. In such cases, large reductions in mortality may be needed to avoid extinction in a collapsing predator population, or to reestablish an extinct population. Our analysis provides a potential explanation for sudden collapses of harvested populations, and it argues for more consideration of adaptive movement in designing protected areas.     

Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.