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141.
142.

Robust decision making, a growing approach to infrastructure planning under climate change uncertainty, aims to evaluate infrastructure performance across a wide range of possible conditions and identify the most robust strategies and designs. Robust decision making seeks to find potential weaknesses in systems in order to gird these through a combination of policy, infrastructure, and, in some cases, resilient or recovery strategies. A system can be explored by simulating many combinations of uncertain climatic and economic parameters; statistical clustering can identify parameter thresholds that lead to unacceptable performance. Often, however, uncertain variables are correlated, complicating the robustness analysis and casting doubt upon the thresholds identified. Here, we evaluate the impact of ordinary, hidden correlations in uncertainty parameters that drive simulation in robust decision making. We induced correlations between temperature and key climatic and economic parameters. We tested correlations of 0%, 30%, 60%, and 90% between temperature and the absolute value of precipitation, coefficient of variation, and downward surface solar radiation, and negative correlations between temperature and net variable benefit and the discount rate. We used a calibrated simulation model of a dam system regulating Lake Tana, Ethiopia, to compute the agricultural supply and net present value of the reservoirs. As the correlation strength increased, the results converged in a smaller region. We found that strong correlations depressed robustness scores of lower-performing alternatives and conversely increased results of the higher-performing alternatives. As the correlations increased in favorable alternatives, the failure thresholds became more extreme, speciously suggesting that only intense changes would result in poor performance. This overall analysis highlights the degree to which correlations of an interconnected climatic and economic system can impact outcomes of robust decision making and suggests methods to avoid confounding results.

  相似文献   
143.
针对传统教与学算法在解决复杂多峰函数优化问题时,具有局部最优且搜索开发能力较差的缺点,提出了一种改进的多学习教与学优化算法,新算法为学员的每一维加入不同的教学因子,设计了基于学员均值比较的教师选择策略和向教师及学员学习的多学习策略。基于多个单峰和多峰函数的仿真结果表明,新算法跟传统的、改进的教与学算法相比,在稳定性、寻优精度和收敛速度方面更具优势。  相似文献   
144.
5R (Recover, Reduce, Recycle, Resource and Reuse) approaches to manage urban water. 5R harvests storm water, gray water and black water in several forms. 5R offers promise for moving solutions for urban water scarcity in practice. Demand for water is expanding with increases in population, particularly in urban areas in developing countries. Additionally, urban water system needs a novel perspective for upgradation with urbanization. This perspective presents a novel 5R approach for managing urban water resources: Recover (storm water), Reduce (toilet flushing water), Recycle (gray water), Resource (black water), and Reuse (advanced-treated wastewater). The 5R generation incorporates the latest ideas for harvesting storm water, gray water, and black water in its several forms. This paper has briefly demonstrated each R of 5R generation for water treatment and reuse. China has the chance to upgrade its urban water systems according to 5R principles. Already, a demonstration project of 5R generation has been installed in Qingdao International Horticultural Exposition, and Dalian International Convention Center (China) has applied 5R, achieving over 70% water saving. The 5R offers promise for moving solutions for urban water scarcity from “hoped for in the future” to “realistic today”.  相似文献   
145.
In South Africa, rare geological specimens are protected by the National Heritage Resource Act (1999). These portable geoheritage objects are neither defined nor described in this Act making their geoheritage status questionable. Thirteen categories and criteria for establishing a geological specimen's rarity status are discussed and include (1) rarity as defined by abundance per se; (2) rarity of a particular habit (external shape or form) of a mineral; (3) rare pseudomorphs; (4) rarity of a particular variety of a mineral; (5) rarity of a particular colour of a common mineral; (6) rarity defined by size; (7) rarity defined by quality; (8) a common species, but rare for a particular locality; (9) rarity of associations of minerals; (10) rarity determined by source being depleted, exhausted or mined out; (11) rare inclusions in minerals; (12) previously rare, now common specimens and (13) miscellaneous criteria that produce rare specimens. Geological specimens (resources) are complex objects when defining their rarity status and multiple rarity factors can apply to single specimens. A lack of clear criteria for defining rare geological specimens appears to place the National Heritage Resource Act (1999) in direct conflict with the more recent Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act (2002) which legitimizes the legal exploitation of any mineral resource.  相似文献   
146.
Reports of enhanced atrazine degradation and reduced residual weed control have increased in recent years, sparking interest in identifying factors contributing to enhanced atrazine degradation. The objectives of this study were to (i) assess the spatial distribution of enhanced atrazine degradation in 45 commercial farm fields in northeastern Colorado (Kit Carson, Larimer, Logan, Morgan, Phillips, and Yuma counties) where selected cultural management practices and soil bio-chemo-physical properties were quantified; (ii) utilize Classification and Regression Tree (CART) Analysis to identify cultural management practices and (or) soil bio-chemophysical attributes that are associated with enhanced atrazine degradation; and (iii) translate our CART Analysis into a model that predicts relative atrazine degradation rate (rapid, moderate, or slow) as a function of known management practices and (or) soil properties. Enhanced atrazine degradation was widespread within a 300-km radius across northeastern Colorado, with approximately 44% of the fields demonstrating rapid atrazine degradation activity (laboratory-based dissipation time halflife [DT50] < 3 d). The most rapid degradation rates occurred in fields that received the most frequent atrazine applications. Classification and Regression Tree Analysis resulted in a prediction model that correctly classified soils with rapid atrazine DT50 80% of the time and soils with slow degradation (DT50 > 8 d) 62.5% of the time. Significant factors were recent atrazine use history, soil pH, and organic matter content. The presence/absence of atzC polymerase chain reaction (PCR) product was not a significant predictor variable for atrazine DT50. In conclusion, enhanced atrazine degradation is widespread in northeastern Colorado. If producers know their atrazine use history, soil pH, and OM content, they should be able to identify fields exhibiting enhanced atrazine degradation using our CART Model.  相似文献   
147.
148.

There are concerns that microplastics act as a vector of pharmaceuticals in the aquatic environment. Most studies have focussed on pharmaceutical adsorption and have not investigated desorption in the various matrices that microplastics enter. Therefore we studied the desorption of the antidepressant drug fluoxetine from polyethylene terephthalate (PET) microplastics in river water, sea water, and simulated gastric and intestinal fluids. We found that most desorption occurred rapidly, within a few hours of exposure. Fluoxetine desorption fitted well to the Freundlich isotherm with r2 values ranging from 0.97 to 0.99. Desorption decreased in the following order: gastric fluid at 20 °C and 37 °C; sea water at 20 °C; intestinal fluid at 20 °C and 37 °C; then river water at 20 °C. The little difference in desorption in gastrointestinal fluids at 20 °C and 37 °C suggests a similar exposure risk to cold- and warm-blooded organisms following PET microplastic ingestion. Total desorption following sequential incubation 2 h in gastric fluid then 4 h in intestinal fluid to mimic gastrointestinal digestion was 37% at 20 °C and 41% at 37 °C. Interestingly, higher desorption of 18–23% occurred in sea water compared to river water, of 4–11%. Under a worst-case scenario, more than 44 mg kg−1 body weight d−1 or more than 52 mg kg−1 body weight d−1 of PET microplastics from river water or sea water, respectively, need to be consumed to exceed the mammalian acceptable daily intake for fluoxetine. Further studies are needed on microplastic ingestion and the bioavailability of adsorbed pharmaceuticals to a range of exposed aquatic organisms.

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149.
Individual transferable quotas (ITQs) are increasingly seen as a way to make fisheries more profitable and halt over-capitalisation. ITQs allocate to users of a resource a share of a total allowable catch (TAC) which they are free to use, lease, or sell. We outline an approach to modelling the effect of an ITQ system in a multi-species, multi-sector fishery and apply it to the Coral Reef Fin Fish Fishery (CRFFF) in Queensland, Australia. An ITQ model, based on the assumption that operators seek to maximize profits, simulates the use of tradeable quota units by operators in the fishery, taking account of the initial quota allocation to operators, seasonal fish prices and individual operator variable costs, their fishing efficiency and experience, and constraints on vessel movements. Rationalization of the fishery is predicted to occur under an ITQ system for the CRFFF, which will lead to reductions in effort, increases in profits, and changes over time in quota prices. The ecological consequences of transferable quota in the multi-species fishery are seen in the catch and discard levels of the less profitable species, even though a TAC was set. This had flow-on effects on biomass. For example, simulations showed that the TAC for the primary target species, coral trout, was used more fully than that for a less valuable target species, red throat emperor, and that this was achieved through increased discarding of red throat emperor. Catches of both coral trout and red throat emperor that were derived from the model were higher than those recently observed in the fishery. The effort predicted by the model, however, closely approximated the actual effort observed in the fishery following implementation of ITQ management.  相似文献   
150.
ABSTRACT: In early 1997, the Texas Edwards Aquifer Authority implemented a pilot Irrigation Suspension Program with the objectives of increasing springflow and providing relief to municipalities during drought. Irrigators were paid an average of $234 per acre to suspend water use, a price higher than regional land rental rates. Auction theory and program implementation details suggest that the program implementation partially caused inflated bids. The Irrigation Suspension Program is also compared to two alternative programs: (1) subsidizing more efficient irrigation technology and (2) buying land. The irrigation suspension is found to be more cost‐effective relative to subsidizing improved irrigation efficiency because it can be put in place only when aquifer levels are low. Land purchase is a cheaper alternative if the bid levels remain at the levels observed.  相似文献   
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