Design of Monitor Networks to Meet Multiple Criteria

For most monitoring networks, demonstration of compliance with ambient air quality standards is only one of many interrelated purposes served. The network also may be needed (1) to assess current air quality, (2) to assess regional background air quality, (3) to determine individual source “culpability,” (4) to validate or calibrate a particular dispersion model, (5) to assess effectiveness of a control strategy, or (6) to determine the risk of damage to certain critical or sensitive receptors. Monitoring to support compliance with Prevention of Significant Deterioration regulations is now also an important issue for many new sources. The same network may have to perform many of these functions for several pollutants that have different source locations and different characteristic averaging times. This paper presents a method for systematically addressing each of these concerns. The method includes use of a statistical computer model, MONITOR. This model provides quantitative estimates of relative probabilities in order to assess whether a particular network design will meet each of these criteria. A sample application of the method is provided.     

Effects of Three Fire-Suppressant Foams on the Germination and Physiological Responses of Plants

Suppressant foams used to fight forest fires may leave residual effects on surviving biota that managers need to consider prior to using them. We examined how three fire-suppressant foams (FSFs) (Forexpan S, Phos-Chek-WD881, and Silv-ex) affected seed germination and physiological responses of three plant species. Exposure to FSFs, whether in diluted concentrations or those typical in the field, reduced final germination percentages of seeds grown in petri dishes and within growth chambers. However, the FSFs did not cause total germination failure in any treatment. Inhibition of germination increased with longer exposure times, but only to diluted FSF solutions. Unlike in the laboratory experiments, none of the three FSFs affected seedling emergence when tested in field conditions. Further, we found no evidence of long-term phytotoxic effects on antioxidant enzyme activity nor chlorophyll content of the plant saplings. Therefore, although the three FSFs showed evidence of phytotoxicity to plants in laboratory tests, their actual impact on terrestrial ecosystems may be minimal. We suggest that the benefits of using these FSFs to protect plants in threatened forest ecosystems outweigh their minor risks.     

Short-Term Forecasting of Nitrogen Dioxide (NO<Subscript>2</Subscript>) Levels Using a Hybrid Statistical and Air Mass History Modelling Approach

A novel hybrid model has been developed to support the provision of real-time air quality forecasts. Statistical techniques have been applied in parallel with air mass history modelling to provide an efficient and accurate forecasting system with the ability to identify high NO₂ events, which tend to be the episodes of most significance in Ireland. Air mass history modelling and k-means clustering are used to identify air mass types that lead to high NO₂ levels in Ireland. Trajectory matching techniques allow data associated with these air masses to be partitioned during model development. Non-parametric regression (NPR) has been applied to describe nonlinear variations in concentration levels with wind speed, direction and season and produce a set of linearized factors which, together with other meteorological variables, are employed as inputs to a multiple linear regression. The model uses an innovative integrated approach to combine the NPR with the air mass history modelling results. On validation, a correlation coefficient of 0.75 was obtained, and 91 % of daily maximum (hourly averaged) NO₂ predictions were within a factor of two of the measured value. High pollution events were well captured, as indicated by strong agreement between measured and modelled high percentile values. The model requires only simple input data, does not require an emission inventory and utilises very low computational resources. It represents an accurate and efficient means of producing real-time air quality forecasts and, when used in combination with forecaster experience, is a useful tool for identifying periods of poor air quality 24 h in advance. The hybrid approach outlined in this paper can easily be applied to produce high-quality forecasts of both NO₂ and additional pollutants at new locations/countries where historical monitoring data are available.     

Predicting support for non‐pharmaceutical interventions during infectious outbreaks: a four region analysis

Non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are an important public health tool for responding to infectious disease outbreaks, including pandemics. However, little is known about the individual characteristics associated with support for NPIs, or whether they are consistent across regions. This study draws on survey data from four regions—Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and the United States—collected following the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak of 2002–03, and employs regression techniques to estimate predictors of NPI support. It finds that characteristics associated with NPI support vary widely by region, possibly because of cultural variation and prior experience, and that minority groups tend to be less supportive of NPIs when arrest is the consequence of noncompliance. Prior experience of face‐mask usage also results in increased support for future usage, as well as other NPIs. Policymakers should be attentive to local preferences and to the application of compulsory interventions. It is speculated here that some public health interventions may serve as ‘gateway’ exposures to future public health interventions.     

Towards deliberative coastal governance: insights from South Africa and the Mississippi Delta

Coastal sustainability is elusive in South Africa and the Mississippi delta. These case studies and convergent literatures demonstrate the merits of reconceptualising coastal management as a transformative practice of deliberative governance. A normative framework is presented that focuses attention on underpinning deliberative outcomes to enable governance actors and networks to build cognitive, democratic, sociopolitical and institutional capacity to transform unsustainable and maladaptive coastal practices. But operationalising such intentions is complex and contested and requires a volte-face in thinking and practice. The South African and Mississippi delta experiences provide insights about how to develop a deliberative praxis of coastal governance based on consideration of the choice of process, timeliness, quality of process, equity and representation, connections to the policy cycle, impact, implementation and institutionalisation.     

Restoring Ecological Integrity in Highly Regulated Rivers: The Role of Baseline Data and Analytical References

The goal of restoring ecological integrity in rivers is frequently accompanied by an assumption that a comparative reference reach can be identified to represent minimally impaired conditions. However, in many regulated rivers, no credible historical, morphological or process-based reference reach exists. Resilient restoration designs should instead be framed around naturalization, using multiple analytical references derived from empirically-calibrated field- and model-based techniques to develop an integrated ecological reference condition. This requires baseline data which are rarely collected despite increasing evidence for systematic deficiencies in restoration practice. We illustrate the utility of baseline data collection in restoration planning for the highly fragmented and regulated lower Merced River, California, USA. The restoration design was developed using various baseline data surveys, monitoring, and modeling within an adaptive management framework. Baseline data assisted in transforming conceptual models of ecosystem function into specific restoration challenges, defining analytical references of the expected relationships among ecological parameters required for restoration, and specifying performance criteria for post-project monitoring and evaluation. In this way the study is an example of process-based morphological restoration designed to prompt recovery of ecosystem processes and resilience. For the Merced River, we illustrate that project-specific baseline data collection is a necessary precursor in developing performance-based restoration designs and addressing scale-related uncertainties, such as whether periodic gravel augmentation will sustain bed recovery and whether piecemeal efforts will improve ecological integrity. Given the numerous impediments to full, historical, restoration in many river systems, it seems apparent that projects of naturalization are a critical step in reducing the deleterious impacts of fragmented rivers worldwide.     

Quantifying ecological thresholds from response surfaces

Ecological thresholds are abrupt changes of ecological state. While an ecological threshold is a widely accepted concept, most empirical methods detect them in time or across geographic space. Although useful, these approaches do not quantify the direct drivers of threshold response. Causal understanding of thresholds detected empirically requires their investigation in a multi-factor domain containing the direct drivers (often referred to as state space). Here, we present an approach to quantify thresholds from response surfaces modeled empirically in state space. We present two indices of shape attributes measured from response surfaces. The response surfaces are built using a regression method in state space. The indices are threshold strength (T) and diagonality (D). We use 48 simulated response surfaces of different shapes to test the efficacy of the indices in 3D. Our results show that T is sensitive to the steepness of the transition from one state to the next, with various forms of abrupt, centralized thresholds yielding the highest values among the simulated surfaces. D represents the orientation of the response surface or the simultaneous influence of more than one predictor in eliciting the response gradient. Strongly diagonal surfaces have the most diagonal surface area demonstrated by sharply undulating diagonal surfaces. Given that the success of T and D requires a regression method to accurately capture any shape of complex data structure, we also test the accuracy of empirical regression methods known to be tractable with complex data. We test classification and regression trees (CART), Random Forest, and non-parametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) for binary and continuous responses. We use the 48 simulated response surfaces to test the methods, and we find that prediction accuracy depends on both the T and D of the simulated data for each method. We choose the most accurate method among those we test for capturing any shape of response surface from real data, NPMR. Finally, we use NPMR to build response surfaces and quantify T and D from real ecological data sets. We demonstrate how measuring threshold strength and diagonality from multi-factor response surfaces can advance ecology.     

Development and validation of rapid assessment indices of condition for coastal tidal wetlands in southern New England, USA

Desertification, land degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid regions, is a global environmental problem. With respect to increasing importance of desertification and its complexity, the necessity of attention to the optimal de-desertification alternatives is essential. Therefore, this work presents an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to objectively select the optimal de-desertification alternatives based on the results of interviews with experts in Khezr Abad region, central Iran as the case study. This model was used in Yazd Khezr Abad region to evaluate the efficiency in presentation of better alternatives related to personal and environmental situations. Obtained results indicate that the criterion "proportion and adaptation to the environment" with the weighted average of 33.6% is the most important criterion from experts viewpoints. While prevention alternatives of land usage unsuitable of reveres and conversion with 22.88% mean weight and vegetation cover development and reclamation with 21.9% mean weight are recognized ordinarily as the most important de-desertification alternatives in region. Finally, sensitivity analysis is performed in detail by varying the objective factor decision weight, the priority weight of subjective factors, and the gain factors. After the fulfillment of sensitivity analysis and determination of the most sensitive criteria and alternatives, the former classification and ranking of alternatives does not change so much, and it was observed that unsuitable land use alternative with the preference degree of 22.7% was still in the first order of priority. The final priority of livestock grazing control alternative was replaced with the alternative of modification of ground water harvesting.     

The unrecognized danger of a new transportation mechanism of injury--pedicabs

Objective

Pedicabs are a new and controversial transportation innovation for tourists in congested areas in several U.S. cities. Scant literature on this trauma mechanism exists. The purpose of this study is to identify the incidence, demographics, morbidity, mortality, and potential for injury prevention of pedicab incidents amongst major trauma admissions at an urban, academic Level I Trauma Center.

Patients & Methods

Researchers conducted a retrospective review of the Trauma Registry from 2000 to 2009. All patients identified as being injured in a pedicab incident were reviewed. Demographics, diagnoses, toxicology, treatments, and injury severity scale (ISS) were collected. Outcomes included mortality, ICU, and hospital length of stay (LOS), discharge disposition, and hospital charges. A photographic survey of 50 local pedicabs was examined for the presence and use of safety equipment.

Results

During the period of January 2000 to July 2009 there were 15 major trauma victims from identified pedicab incidents. Falling from the pedicab was the mechanism of injury in 14 of 15 cases. There were two fatalities in victims following severe traumatic brain injury. Traumatic brain injury, skull fracture, or loss of consciousness was seen in 11/15 victims. Ethanol ingestion was detected in blood tests of 10 of the 14 adult victims. Median charges of hospitalization due to a pedicab related injury was US$29,956 ± 77,482. A photographic survey of 50 local pedicabs reveals very limited use of safety belts by passengers despite existing city ordinances.

Conclusions

Major trauma victims of pedicab incidents in the United States suffer significant injuries and death. Most cases occurred in passengers falling from the pedicab at night after alcohol ingestion. There is an opportunity for implementation of strategies toward improved injury prevention with this new form of transport.