Simulating the influences of various fire regimes on caribou winter habitat.

Caribou are an integral component of high-latitude ecosystems and represent a major subsistence food source for many northern people. The availability and quality of winter habitat is critical to sustain these caribou populations. Caribou commonly use older spruce woodlands with adequate terrestrial lichen, a preferred winter forage, in the understory. Changes in climate and fire regime pose a significant threat to the long-term sustainability of this important winter habitat. Computer simulations performed with a spatially explicit vegetation succession model (ALFRESCO) indicate that changes in the frequency and extent of fire in interior Alaska may substantially impact the abundance and quality of winter habitat for caribou. We modeled four different fire scenarios and tracked the frequency, extent, and spatial distribution of the simulated fires and associated changes to vegetation composition and distribution. Our results suggest that shorter fire frequencies (i.e., less time between recurring fires) on the winter range of the Nelchina caribou herd in eastern interior Alaska will result in large decreases of available winter habitat, relative to that currently available, in both the short and long term. A 30% shortening of the fire frequency resulted in a 3.5-fold increase in the area burned annually and an associated 41% decrease in the amount of spruce-lichen forest found on the landscape. More importantly, simulations with more frequent fires produced a relatively immature forest age structure, compared to that which currently exists, with few stands older than 100 years. This age structure is at the lower limits of stand age classes preferred by caribou from the Nelchina herd. Projected changes in fire regime due to climate warming and/or additional prescribed burning could substantially alter the winter habitat of caribou in interior Alaska and lead to changes in winter range use and/or population dynamics.     

Mitochondrial control region sequence analyses indicate dispersal from the US East Coast as the source of the invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish Pterois volitans in the Bahamas

Lionfish are popular aquarium fish from the Indo-Pacific that have invaded the western Atlantic. Two species, Pterois volitans and P. miles, were well established along the United States east coast before the first lionfish were reported from the Bahamas in 2004, where they quickly dispersed throughout the archipelago by 2007. The source of the Bahamian lionfish invasion has been in question because of the hypothesized low connectivity between Florida and Bahamas reef species as well as the temporal lag in their arrival in the Bahamas. Mitochondrial control region haplotypes (680 bp) were determined and analyzed for lionfish specimens from the Bahamas, North Carolina, and two sites within their native range (Indonesia and the Philippines). Exact tests, pairwise F _st and AMOVA analyses all showed no significant differentiation between the Bahamas and North Carolina specimens. The similarity between the Bahamas and North Carolina lionfish was also reflected in a minimum spanning network and neighbor-joining distance tree generated from the data. Sequence analyses also revealed the presence of only Pterois volitans, as no P. miles were detected in the Bahamian sample. These results indicate that the source of the Bahamian lionfish is egg and larval dispersal from the United States east coast population, and support previous models of reef fish dispersal that suggest a low level of connectivity between the Bahamas and east coast of Florida.     

Covariability in three dimensions of teenage driving risk behavior: impaired driving,risky and unsafe driving behavior,and secondary task engagement

Objective: This research examined the extent to which teenagers who engaged in one form of risky driving also engaged in other forms and whether risky driving measures were reciprocally associated over time.

Methods: The data were from waves 1, 2, and 3 (W1, W2, and W3) of the NEXT Generation study, with longitudinal assessment of a nationally representative sample starting with 10th graders starting in 2009–2010. Three measures of risky driving were assessed in autoregressive and cross-lagged analyses: driving while alcohol/drug impaired (DWI), Checkpoints Risky Driving Scale (risky and unsafe driving), and secondary task engagement while driving.

Results: In adjusted autoregression models, the risk variables demonstrated high levels of stability, with significant associations observed across the 3 waves. However, associations between variables were inconsistent. DWI at W2 was associated with risky and unsafe driving at W3 (β = 0.21, P < .01); risky and unsafe driving at W1 was associated with DWI at W2 (β = 0.20, P < .01); and risky and unsafe driving at W2 is associated with secondary task engagement at W3 (β = 0.19, P < .01). Over time, associations between DWI and secondary task engagement were not significant.

Conclusions: Our findings provide modest evidence for the covariability of risky driving, with prospective associations between the Risky Driving Scale and the other measures and reciprocal associations between all 3 variables at some time points. Secondary task engagement, however, appears largely to be an independent measure of risky driving. The findings suggest the importance of implementing interventions that addresses each of these driving risks.     

Radionuclides and metals in freshwater mussels of the upper South Alligator River, Australia

During an inspection of the old Rockhole Mine area in Kakadu National Park in 1999, it was found that a small amount of tailings from the former South Alligator uranium (U) mill had been uncovered by wet season rain and road works. Samples of sediment, water and freshwater mussels, Velesunio angasi, were collected from the South Alligator River, near and at the confluence of Rockhole Mine Creek, and adjacent to the exposed tailings. The 228Ra/226Ra activity ratios in sediments and mussel tissue indicate a small influence from the tailings and from Rockhole Mine adit water on 226Ra concentrations. The uptake of 226Ra in mussels does not correlate with other alkaline-earth metals. Mussel U concentrations are higher immediately downstream of Rockhole Mine Creek, but there is no noticeable increase in the immediate vicinity of the tailings area. A hypothetical ingestion of 2 kg of mussels from the sites was used to estimate the committed effective dose for a 10-year-old child resulting in a figure of 0.23 mSv per annum, of this total dose, 69% is attributed to 210Po. Only 0.03 mSv per annum can be directly linked to impacts of the tailings.     

Male and female developmental differences in chemosensory investigations by African elephants (Loxodonta africana) approaching waterholes

Although communication is vital for members of a social species, the sexes may differ in the type and degree of information sought. In many polygynous societies, males search for reproductively active females and compete intrasexually for access to females with older males often being most successful. In social mammals, females may mature sooner than males and thus at an earlier age behave more like adults. This maturation may include the assessment of potential mates directly or via indicative signals. In this study, we observed the behavior of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) during their approach to waterholes. Waterholes provide an opportunity for elephants to investigate conspecific chemical signals from feces and urine, and each other. We examined the presence of sexual dimorphism in behaviors of the trunk that are indicative of olfactory investigation. We predicted that upon approach to a waterhole, adult males would show greater interest than females in conspecific chemical signals. Females were predicted and observed to exhibit adult-like rates of investigatory behavior at a younger age than males because females mature sooner. Adult males took the longest to reach the waterhole in the last 100 m of approach; they also demonstrated greater investigatory rates to conspecific feces. Each sex showed adult-type investigative behaviors with the trunk before the age of reproduction. Rather than showing a common chronological developmental pattern across sex, the exhibition of investigatory, chemosensory behaviors reflected sex-specific changes in reproductive development, perhaps reflective of the relative strength of intra- and intersexual selection on communication patterns.     

A tribute to Trevor Kletz: What we are doing and why we are doing it

The goal of my tribute to Trevor Kletz is to show a view of his overall influence on many of the elements of process safety: how he helped establish a strong foundation on which we are building our future process safety risk reduction efforts.     

Acid Rain Emission Allowances and Future Capacity Growth in the Electric Utility Industry

While the new source emission offset provision contained in recent acid rain proposals would result in increasing utility costs over time, the demand for emission offsets from new powerplant units should be satisfied even under conditions of high future growth in electrical generating capacity. This is because the amount of emissions from new generating units will be small relative to the quantity of offsets that could be made available in the emission “allowance” market.

Under the President’s July 1989 proposal, most utilities would be able to reduce their emissions well below their allowance levels via fuel switching, the installation of control technology, or the use of other emission reduction techniques, in order to create more “headroom” for the construction of new generating units. Retirements and decreasing utilization of existing power plants over time would liberate other emission allowances for use by new units. Industrial sources could “opt in” to the acid rain program and provide allowances for new generating units as well. A number of provisions in the recently passed Senate and House bills would make still further sources of allowances available to offset emissions from new generating capacity.

Hoarding of allowances by utilities is unlikely to be a problem since allowances would be distributed to at least 88 utilities in 34 states, and many of these utilities would have the ability to cost-effectively free up more allowances through “overcontrol” than they would need to cover their own future growth. Even a relatively small number of utilities in a limited number of states would have the ability to supply all of the allowances needed to cover new capacity growth from those entities that could not otherwise provide their own offsets. At projected prices of up to $800/ton, the incentives for utilities to sell allowances would be considerable. Moreover, if hoarding did begin to occur, the price of allowances would respond by rising to higher levels and the incentives for utilities to sell allowances would become even more compelling, as greater opportunities would develop for reducing costs (and electricity rates).