How well do parents manage young driver crash risks?

Motor vehicle crashes are extremely high among young drivers during at least the first year of licensure. Crash risks decline with increased experience, but the more newly licensed teenagers drive, the greater their risk exposure. Hence, the dilemma facing policy makers and parents is how to provide young drivers with driving experience without unduly increasing their crash risk. Graduated driver licensing policies serve to delay licensure and then limit exposure to the highest risk conditions after licensure, allowing young drivers to gain experience only under less risky driving conditions. A similar strategy is needed to guide parents. Parents do not appear to appreciate just how risky driving is for novice drivers and tend to exert less control over their teenage children's driving than might be expected. Recent research has demonstrated that simple motivational strategies can persuade parents to adopt driving agreements and impose greater restrictions on early teen driving.     

Estimation of the cost of air pollution control regulation

Estimates of hydrocarbon pollution control costs under the alternative regulatory approaches of individual source or process standards, plant standards, and regionally marketable permits are presented. The estimates are obtained from data supplied by the DuPont Company based on a 1976 in-house engineering study. The estimation procedure is unique in that the data are based on uniform percentage control across sources while the estimated cost equations allow variable control at each source. The cost simulations show that considerable cost savings are available from allowing firms more flexibility in meeting a given environmental standard. The effect of plant relocation and monopoly in the pollution permit market are also investigated.     

Semivolatile organic decay rates in pilot-scale solid- and slurry-phase bioreactors

A variety of process byproducts and residues were reclaimed at the Brio Refining Superfund site, an abandoned jet fuel refinery located near Houston, Texas. Among the operations that took place at the site were regeneration of acrylonitrile synthesis catalysts, styrene reprocessing still bottoms to recover ethylbenzene, and the attempted reclamation of 1,2-dichloroethane from vinyl chloride process residues. Incoming process byproducts and residues were stored in unlined impoundments before reclamation, until the Texas Air Control Board had the impoundments closed under court order in 1979. After the pits were closed, two pilot-scale bioremediation demonstrations were performed on the backfilled impoundments. The results of these studies indicated that bioremediation of the organic residues and affected soils at the site was included as an acceptable treatment technology in the Record of Decision. This article compares the degradation rates achieved by the two different biological treatment processes used to treat the organic material in the impoundments.     

A Test of the Vegetation Mosaic Hypothesis: A Hypothesis to Explain the Decline and Extinction of Australian Mammals

The vegetation mosaic hypothesis suggests that medium-sized mammals occupying arid and semi-arid areas of Australia require a habitat that is a fine-grained mosaic of different vegetation types or seral stages. This mosaic is believed to have been created in the spinifex deserts of central Australia by Aboriginal burning practices. Its loss in the period 1940–1960 is postulated to be a primary reason for both major reductions in range and mainland extinctions of many species of medium-sized mammals at this time. This study measured the responses of three species of medium-sized mammals to vegetation patterns within spinifex grasslands that ranged from comparatively uniform to highly diverse. The abundance, condition, and reproductive status of golden bandicoots (Isoodon auratus) , northern brush-tailed possums (Trichosurus vulpecula arnhemensis) , and burrowing bettongs (Bettongia lesueur) were assessed within vegetation mosaics of various scales on Barrow Island, off the northwest coast of Australia. Scale of mosaic proved to have no significant effect on the numbers, condition, or reproductive status of any of the three species. Similarly, the creation of fine-grained mosaics of early seral-stage vegetation mixed within climax vegetation by extensive oil-field operations over nearly half the island had no significant effect on the number or condition of animals. Hence, scale of mosaic seems unlikely to be related to the mainland decline or extinction of these species. The pattern of decline and extinction on the mainland but continued survival on offshore islands is more consistent with the presence (mainland) or absence (islands) of introduced predators (foxes and cats) and herbivores (rabbits and stock).     

A review of models for estimating terrestrial ecological receptor exposure to chemical contaminants

In instances where empirical measurements are not practicable, ecological risk assessments may rely on site-specific exposure models for estimating uptake of chemical contaminants. This paper presents, based on a review of the literature, a compilation of relatively simple quantitative models that can be combined to produce site- and species-specific first-order estimates of uptake of chemicals from abiotic media. These models have proved useful in providing order-of-magnitude estimates for screening and sample program design purposes. This paper intended as both a practical guide for choosing models to estimate terrestrial wildlife exposures and as a step toward development of a more comprehensive and standard approach to exposure assessment in terrestrial ecological receptors.     

Impacts of Rotational Grazing and Riparian Buffers on Physicochemical and Biological Characteristicsof Southeastern Minnesota, USA, Streams

We assessed the relationship between riparian management and stream quality along five southeastern Minnesota streams in 1995 and 1996. Specifically, we examined the effect of rotationally and continuously grazed pastures and different types of riparian buffer strips on water chemistry, physical habitat, benthic macroinvertebrates, and fish as indicators of stream quality. We collected data at 17 sites under different combinations of grazing and riparian management, using a longitudinal design on three streams and a paired watershed design on two others. Continuous and rotational grazing were compared along one longitudinal study stream and at the paired watershed. Riparian buffer management, fenced trees (wood buffer), fenced grass, and unfenced rotationally grazed areas were the focus along the two remaining longitudinal streams. Principal components analysis (PCA) of water chemistry, physical habitat, and biotic data indicated a local management effect. The ordinations separated continuous grazing from sites with rotational grazing and sites with wood buffers from those with grass buffers or rotationally grazed areas. Fecal coliform and turbidity were consistently higher at continuously grazed than rotationally grazed sites. Percent fines in the streambed were significantly higher at sites with wood buffers than grass and rotationally grazed areas, and canopy cover was similar at sites with wood and grass buffers. Benthic macroinvertebrate metrics were significant but were not consistent across grazing and riparian buffer management types. Fish density and abundance were related to riparian buffer type, rather than grazing practices. Our study has potentially important implications for stream restoration programs in the midwestern United States. Our comparisons suggest further consideration and study of a combination of grass and wood riparian buffer strips as midwestern stream management options, rather than universally installing wood buffers in every instance. RID=" ID=" The Unit is jointly sponsored by the US Geological Survey, Biological Resources Division; the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources; the University of Minnesota; and the Wildlife Management Institute.     

A Procedure for Performing Population-Level Ecological Risk Assessments

/ In 1997, Oregon enacted amendments to its state hazardous waste site cleanup law which emphasize risk-based remedial action decisions. In a departure from US EPA practice, the amended statute and associated rules require that protection of ecological receptors occur at the population level for all plants and animals not listed as threatened or endangered. By rule, the acceptable risklevel for populations of ecological receptors is a 10% or less chance that 20% or more of the total local population would receive an exposure greater than the toxicity reference value for a hazardous substance. This paper describes a practical procedure for performing population-level ecological risk assessments using a combination of relatively simple techniques. The procedure involves: (1) establishing a distribution of exposures and a contaminant-specific toxicity reference value, either as a point value or a distribution, for an individual receptor, (2) estimating the abundance of these receptors within their local populations, (3) estimating the probability of an individual receptor experiencing an exposure in excess of the toxicity reference value, (4) estimating the number of individual receptors in the local population likely to experience an exposure above the toxicity reference value greater than 10% of the time, and (5) determining whether this number is greater than 20% of the total local population.     

Elevated atmospheric CO2 and drought effects on leaf gas exchange properties of barley

Atmospheric CO₂ concentration (C_a) is rising, predicted to cause global warming, and alter precipitation patterns. During 1994, spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L. cv. Alexis) was grown in a strip-split-plot experimental design to determine the effects that the main plot C_a treatments [A: Ambient at 370 μmol (CO₂) mol⁻¹; E: Enriched with free-air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) at ∼550 μmol (CO₂) mol⁻¹] had on several gas exchange properties of fully expanded sunlit primary leaves. The interacting strip-split-plot irrigation treatments were Dry or Wet [50% (D) or 100% (W) replacement of potential evapotranspiration] at ample nitrogen (261 kg N ha⁻¹) and phosphorous (29 kg P ha⁻¹) fertility. Elevated C_a facilitated drought avoidance by reducing stomatal conductance (g_s) by 34% that conserved water and enabled stomata to remain open for a longer period into a drought. This resulted in a 28% reduction in drought-induced midafternoon depression in net assimilation rate (A). Elevated C_a increased A by 37% under Dry and 23% under Wet. Any reduction in A under Wet conditions occurred because of nonstomatal limitations, whereas under Dry it occurred because of stomatal limitations. Elevated C_a increased the diurnal integral of A (A′) that resulted in an increase in the seasonal-long integral of A′ (A″) for barley leaves by 12% (P = 0.14) under both Dry and Wet - 650, 730, 905 and 1020 ± 65 g (C) m⁻² y⁻¹ for AD, ED, AW and EW treatments, respectively. Elevated C_a increased season-long average dry weight (DW_S; crown, shoots) by 14% (P = 0.02), whereas deficit irrigation reduced DW_S by 7% (P = 0.06), although these values may have been affected by a short but severe pea aphid [Acyrthosiphon pisum (Harris)] infestation. Hence, an elevated-C_a-based improvement in gas exchange properties enhanced growth of a barley crop.     

Quantifying ecological thresholds from response surfaces

Ecological thresholds are abrupt changes of ecological state. While an ecological threshold is a widely accepted concept, most empirical methods detect them in time or across geographic space. Although useful, these approaches do not quantify the direct drivers of threshold response. Causal understanding of thresholds detected empirically requires their investigation in a multi-factor domain containing the direct drivers (often referred to as state space). Here, we present an approach to quantify thresholds from response surfaces modeled empirically in state space. We present two indices of shape attributes measured from response surfaces. The response surfaces are built using a regression method in state space. The indices are threshold strength (T) and diagonality (D). We use 48 simulated response surfaces of different shapes to test the efficacy of the indices in 3D. Our results show that T is sensitive to the steepness of the transition from one state to the next, with various forms of abrupt, centralized thresholds yielding the highest values among the simulated surfaces. D represents the orientation of the response surface or the simultaneous influence of more than one predictor in eliciting the response gradient. Strongly diagonal surfaces have the most diagonal surface area demonstrated by sharply undulating diagonal surfaces. Given that the success of T and D requires a regression method to accurately capture any shape of complex data structure, we also test the accuracy of empirical regression methods known to be tractable with complex data. We test classification and regression trees (CART), Random Forest, and non-parametric multiplicative regression (NPMR) for binary and continuous responses. We use the 48 simulated response surfaces to test the methods, and we find that prediction accuracy depends on both the T and D of the simulated data for each method. We choose the most accurate method among those we test for capturing any shape of response surface from real data, NPMR. Finally, we use NPMR to build response surfaces and quantify T and D from real ecological data sets. We demonstrate how measuring threshold strength and diagonality from multi-factor response surfaces can advance ecology.