THE CENTRAL ARIZONA WATER CONTROL STUDY: A COMPARISON OF ALTERNATE PLANS USING CONCORDANCE ANALYSIS AND MULTI-DIMENSION SCALING1

ABSTRACT The Central Arizona Water Control Study (CAWCS) was initiated by the Bureau of Reclamation in 1978. The study attempted to identify and evaluate alternate water management schemes for Central Arizona. By 1981 a set of seven plans had been developed and for each an assessment on a number of economic, environmental, and social factors had been undertaken. This paper offers a formal procedure, using concordance analysis and multi-dimension scaling, to compare alternate plans using multiple factors in order to produce a classification of the attractiveness of the alternatives. Empirical data for the CAWCS are used to clarify the procedure. The results of the formal analysis are compared to those produced by the CAWCS. A critique of the formal procedure is offered, and it is suggested that it may have utility to assist in the collection of data as well as in the search for a best plan. The procedure allows a number of different types of sensitivity tests to be conducted.     

Genetic structure and phylogeography of the lined shore crab, Pachygrapsus crassipes, along the northeastern and western Pacific coasts

Marine invertebrates with high larval dispersal capacity typically exhibit low degrees of population differentiation, which reflects both contemporary and historical processes. We sampled 346 individuals from seven populations of the lined shore crab, Pachygrapsus crassipes Randall, along the northeastern Pacific Coast and Korea during summer 2003. DNA sequence analysis of 613 bp of the mitochondrial COI gene showed that overall gene diversity (h) was high (0.92±0.01), whereas overall nucleotide diversity (π) was low (0.009±0.005). A total of 154 mtDNA haplotypes were identified; however, 114 were present in only one individual. Analysis of molecular variance revealed significant genetic structuring at Point Conception, CA, USA, that is likely due to the oceanographic circulation patterns, which result in asymmetrical migration of haplotypes. However, genetic variation among eastern Pacific populations was generally low, probably because of high contemporary gene flow and recent common ancestry of haplotypes. Mismatch analysis and nested clade analysis suggested that the population history of this region is characterized by two contiguous northwards range expansions, which are congruent with Late Pleistocene glacial cycles. Highly significant genetic differentiation was detected between eastern Pacific populations and Korea, indicating transpacific gene flow is restricted. Time of divergence between the two transpacific lineages was estimated between 0.8 and 1.2 Myrs ago. The small, recently founded population of P. crassipes at Bamfield, BC, Canada, did not appear to have undergone a founder effect.     

The morphology and behavior of dimorphic males in Perdita portalis (Hymenoptera : Andrenidae)

Summary In Perdita portalis, a ground nesting, communal bee, males are clearly dimorphic. The two male morphs are easily distinguished based on head size and shape into (1) a flight-capable, small-headed (SH) morph that resembles the males of other closely related species and (2) a flightless, large-headed (LH) morph that possesses numerous derived traits, such as reduced compound eyes, enlarged facial foveae and fully atrophied indirect flight muscles. The SH morph occurs exclusively on flowers while the LH morph is found only in nests with females. While on flowers, SH males are aggressive, fighting with conspecific males and heterospecific male and female bees, and they mate frequently with foraging females. Using artificial observation nests placed in the field, I observed the behavior of females and LH males within their subterranean nests. LH males are aggressive fighters; males attacked each other with mandibles agape, and male-male fights always ended in the death of one male. LH males are highly attentive to the reproductive behavior of females; they spend increasing amounts of time near open cells during cell provisioning, and mating only takes place immediately prior to oviposition when females are forming the accumulated pollen and nectar into a ball. Based on larvae reared to adulthood in the laboratory, the two male morphs occur in equal proportions. The behavior of males in closely related species, especially P. texana, and the origin and maintenance of male dimorphism are discussed.     

Snapping turtles - a biological screen for PCB's

Snapping turtles are capable of storing extremely high concentration of organochlorine compounds in their fat without any apparent detrimental effect. This tolerance, to high bioconcentration, permits a wide gradation between the extremes in pollution levels and facilitates the detection of extremely toxic substances present in trace amounts. Consequently snapping turtles provide an excellent biological screen for these compounds.     

The benefits of lower ozone due to air pollution emission reductions (2002–2011) in the Eastern United States during extreme heat

ABSTRACT

Using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model and the Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program – Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) tool, we estimate the benefits of anthropogenic emission reductions between 2002 and 2011 in the Eastern United States (US) with respect to surface ozone concentrations and ozone-related health and economic impacts, during a month of extreme heat, July 2011. Based on CMAQ simulations using emissions appropriate for 2002 and 2011, we estimate that emission reductions since 2002 likely prevented 10– 15 ozone exceedance days (using the 2011 maximum 8-hr average ozone standard of 75 ppbv) throughout the Ohio River Valley and 5– 10 ozone exceedance days throughout the Washington, DC – Baltimore, MD metropolitan area during this extremely hot month. CMAQ results were fed into the BenMAP-CE tool to determine the health and health-related economic benefits of anthropogenic emission reductions between 2002 and 2011. We estimate that the concomitant health benefits from the ozone reductions were significant for this anomalous month: 160–800 mortalities (95% confidence interval (CI): 70–1,010) were avoided in July 2011 in the Eastern U.S, saving an estimated $1.3–$6.6 billion (CI: $174 million–$15.5 billion). Additionally, we estimate that emission reductions resulted in 950 (CI: 90–2,350) less hospital admissions from respiratory symptoms, 370 (CI: 180–580) less hospital admissions for pneumonia, 570 (CI: 0–1650) less Emergency Room (ER) visits from asthma symptoms, 922,020 (CI: 469,960–1,370,050) less minor restricted activity days (MRADs), and 430,240 (CI: ?280,350–963,190) less symptoms of asthma exacerbation during July 2011.

Implications: We estimate the benefits of air pollution emission reductions on surface ozone concentrations and ozone-related impacts on human health and the economy between 2002 and 2011 during an extremely hot month, July 2011, in the eastern United States (US) using the CMAQ and BenMAP-CE models. Results suggest that, during July 2011, emission reductions prevented 10-15 ozone exceedance days in the Ohio River Valley and 5-10 ozone exceedance days in the Mid Atlantic; saved 160-800 lives in the Eastern US, saving $1.3 - $6.5 billion; and resulted in 950 less hospital admissions for respiratory symptoms, 370 less hospital admissions for pneumonia, 570 less Emergency Room visits for asthma symptoms, 922,020 less minor restricted activity days, and 430,240 less symptoms of asthma exacerbation.     

Estimating rainforest biomass stocks and carbon loss from deforestation and degradation in Papua New Guinea 1972–2002: Best estimates,uncertainties and research needs

Reduction of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation is being considered a cost-effective way of mitigating the impacts of global warming. If such reductions are to be implemented, accurate and repeatable measurements of forest cover change and biomass will be required. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), which has one of the world's largest remaining areas of tropical forest, we used the best available data to estimate rainforest carbon stocks, and emissions from deforestation and degradation. We collated all available PNG field measurements which could be used to estimate carbon stocks in logged and unlogged forest. We extrapolated these plot-level estimates across the forested landscape using high-resolution forest mapping. We found the best estimate of forest carbon stocks contained in logged and unlogged forest in 2002 to be 4770 Mt (±13%). Our best estimate of gross forest carbon released through deforestation and degradation between 1972 and 2002 was 1178 Mt (±18%). By applying a long-term forest change model, we estimated that the carbon loss resulting from deforestation and degradation in 2001 was 53 Mt (±18%), rising from 24 Mt (±15%) in 1972. Forty-one percent of 2001 emissions resulted from logging, rising from 21% in 1972. Reducing emissions from logging is therefore a priority for PNG. The large uncertainty in our estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes is primarily due to the dearth of field measurements in both logged and unlogged forest, and the lack of PNG logging damage studies. Research priorities for PNG to increase the accuracy of forest carbon stock assessments are the collection of field measurements in unlogged forest and more spatially explicit logging damage studies.     

Mountain goat response to hydroelectric exploration in northwestern British Columbia

The behavioral responses of more than 800 mountain goats, comprised of 195 social groups, were recorded during hydroelectric exploration activities (primarily aircraft) in northwestern British Columbia. Four categories of overt response were recorded during case tests, ranging from maintenance activity to severe flight. More than 80 percent (n=667) of the observed goats elicited some form of behavioral stress-response, with 33 percent (n=265) displaying a severe flight response to local rock or plant cover. Multiple regression analysis inferred goat responses to be statistically independent of the time of year, type, and vertical orientation of disturbance and group size. As expected, significant correlations (p≤0.05) existed between distance of disturbance, geographic area, cover availability, and degree of awareness. Responses were stimulated primarily by auditory and secondarily by visual cues. Repeated aerial and ground follow-up surveys documented temporary range abandonment and changing observability indices (habitat use and activity patterns) associated with areas of intense exploration activity. The assessed data offer mitigation possibilities and enable formulation of management guidelines to lessen project impacts during future exploration, construction, and operation phases.     

Land development and employment creation on landed estates in the Northern Highlands

The landed estates may be divided into four groups according to land use and use intensity: crofting, sheep, sporting, mixed use. While sheep and mixed use estates have held sheep numbers constant, other estates have shown dramatic declines. All estates, and in particular sporting estates, have increased deer culls. Many sporting estates are supported by external private finance which makes land development unnecessary. Private enjoyment is an important ownership motivation on many estates. This, rather than lack of profitability or lack of finance, prevents development. However, significant employment creation can come only through extensive land developments beyond those on even the more productive estates. Such a strategy would require a development plan and a challenge to existing property rights.     

Characterisation of weathered hydrocarbon wastes at contaminated sites by GC-simulated distillation and nitrous oxide chemical ionisation GC-MS, with implications for bioremediation

An extended analytical characterisation of weathered hydrocarbons isolated from historically contaminated sites in Alberta is presented. The characterisation of soil extracts, chromatographically separated into component classes, by GC-simulated distillation and nitrous oxide (N2O) chemical ionisation (CI) GC-MS provides new insights into the composition of the residual oil at these sites, the principal partition medium for risk critical components. The combined polar and asphaltene content of representative soil extracts ranged from 40% w/w to 70% w/w of the oils encountered. An abundance of C14-C22 2-4 ring alicyclics, alkylbenzenes and benzocycloparaffins is prevalent within the saturate fractions of site soils. Implications for the partitioning of risk critical compounds at sites with weathered hydrocarbons and the practical application of bioremediation technologies are discussed.