事故的组织管理原因文献综述

组织管理原因是一类重要的事故致因,对其全面了解才能有效预防事故。就组织管理原因对事故的作用机理、定义与内容、事故分析对其研究的现状进行文献综述。通过文献梳理发现,在一维链式事故模型和系统论为基础的事故模型中,组织管理原因对事故作用机理不同,但对事故发生都具有重要作用。现阶段研究中,组织管理原因没有统一的定义和内容,但具有的区别于其他事故致因的特性能得到共识。现阶段常见的事故分析模型对组织管理原因进行定量和定性分析,但仍需继续完善。最后,对组织管理原因的研究方向提出展望。     

Mobilization of arsenic and other trace elements of health concern in groundwater from the Salí River Basin, Tucumán Province, Argentina

The Salí River Basin in north-west Argentina (7,000 km²) is composed of a sequence of Tertiary and Quaternary loess deposits, which have been substantially reworked by fluvial and aeolian processes. As with other areas of the Chaco-Pampean Plain, groundwater in the basin suffers a range of chemical quality problems, including arsenic (concentrations in the range of 12.2–1,660 μg L⁻¹), fluoride (50–8,740 μg L⁻¹), boron (34.0–9,550 μg L⁻¹), vanadium (30.7–300 μg L⁻¹) and uranium (0.03–125 μg L⁻¹). Shallow groundwater (depths up to 15 m) has particularly high concentrations of these elements. Exceedances above WHO (2011) guideline values are 100% for As, 35% for B, 21% for U and 17% for F. Concentrations in deep (>200 m) and artesian groundwater in the basin are also often high, though less extreme than at shallow depths. The waters are oxidizing, with often high bicarbonate concentrations (50.0–1,260 mg L⁻¹) and pH (6.28–9.24). The ultimate sources of these trace elements are the volcanic components of the loess deposits, although sorption reactions involving secondary Al and Fe oxides also regulate the distribution and mobility of trace elements in the aquifers. In addition, concentrations of chromium lie in range of 79.4–232 μg L⁻¹ in shallow groundwater, 129–250 μg L⁻¹ in deep groundwater and 110–218 μg L⁻¹ in artesian groundwater. All exceed the WHO guideline value of 50 μg L⁻¹. Their origin is likely to be predominantly geogenic, present as chromate in the ambient oxic and alkaline aquifer conditions.     

A test of the senses: fish select novel habitats by responding to multiple cues

Habitat-specific cues play an important role in orientation for animals that move through a mosaic of habitats. Environmental cues can be imprinted upon during early life stages to guide later return to adult habitats, yet many species must orient toward suitable habitats without previous experience of the habitat. It is hypothesized that multiple sensory cues may enable animals to differentiate between habitats in a sequential order relevant to the spatial scales over which the different types of information are conveyed, but previous research, especially for marine organisms, has mainly focused on the use of single cues in isolation. In this study, we investigated novel habitat selection through the use of three different sensory modalities (hearing, vision, and olfaction). Our model species, the French grunt, Haemulon flavolineatum, is a mangrove/seagrass-associated reef fish species that makes several habitat transitions during early life. Using several in situ and ex situ experiments, we tested the response of fish toward auditory, olfactory, and visual cues from four different habitats (seagrass beds, mangroves, rubble, and coral reef). We identified receptivity to multiple sensory cues during the same life phase, and found that different cues induced different reactions toward the same habitat. For example, early-juvenile fish only responded to sound from coral reefs and to chemical cues from mangroves/seagrass beds, while visual cues of conspecifics overruled olfactory cues from mangrove/seagrass water. Mapping these preferences to the ecology of ontogenetic movements, our results suggest sequential cue use would indeed aid successful orientation to novel key habitats in early life.     

Trends and causes of severity, size, and number of fires in northwestern California, USA

Research in the last several years has indicated that fire size and frequency are on the rise in western U.S. forests. Although fire size and frequency are important, they do not necessarily scale with ecosystem effects of fire, as different ecosystems have different ecological and evolutionary relationships with fire. Our study assessed trends and patterns in fire size and frequency from 1910 to 2008 (all fires > 40 ha), and the percentage of high-severity in fires from 1987 to 2008 (all fires > 400 ha) on the four national forests of northwestern California. During 1910-2008, mean and maximum fire size and total annual area burned increased, but we found no temporal trend in the percentage of high-severity fire during 1987-2008. The time series of severity data was strongly influenced by four years with region-wide lightning events that burned huge areas at primarily low-moderate severity. Regional fire rotation reached a high of 974 years in 1984 and fell to 95 years by 2008. The percentage of high-severity fire in conifer-dominated forests was generally higher in areas dominated by smaller-diameter trees than in areas with larger-diameter trees. For Douglas-fir forests, the percentage of high-severity fire did not differ significantly between areas that re-burned and areas that only burned once (10% vs. 9%) when re-burned within 30 years. Percentage of high-severity fire decreased to 5% when intervals between first and second fires were > 30 years. In contrast, in both mixed-conifer and fir/high-elevation conifer forests, the percentage of high-severity fire was less when re-burned within 30 years compared to first-time burned (12% vs. 16% for mixed conifer; 11% vs. 19% for fir/high-elevation conifer). Additionally, the percentage of high-severity fire did not differ whether the re-burn interval was less than or greater than 30 years. Years with larger fires and greatest area burned were produced by region-wide lightning events, and characterized by less winter and spring precipitation than years dominated by smaller human-ignited fires. Overall percentage of high-severity fire was generally less in years characterized by these region-wide lightning events. Our results suggest that, under certain conditions, wildfires could be more extensively used to achieve ecological and management objectives in northwestern California.     

Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis

The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic declines in the polar bear population by the end of the 21st century. These projections were instrumental in the decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.     

Assessing the impacts of mountain biking and hiking on subalpine grassland in Australia using an experimental protocol

Mountain biking is an increasingly popular, but sometimes controversial, activity in protected areas. Limited research on its impacts, including studies comparing biking with hiking, contributes to the challenges for mangers in assessing its appropriateness. The impacts of mountain bike riding off trail were compared to those of hiking on subalpine grassland in Australia using a modification of a common trampling experimental methodology. Vegetation and soil parameters were measured immediately and two weeks after different intensities of mountain biking (none, 25, 75, 200 and 500 passes across slope, 200 pass up and down slope) and hiking (200 and 500 passes across slope). There were reductions in vegetation height, cover and species richness, as well as changes in species composition and increases in litter and soil compaction with riding. Riding up and down a moderate slope had a greater impact than riding across the slope. Hiking also affected vegetation height, cover and composition. Mountain biking caused more damage than hiking but only at high use (500 passes). Further research including other ecosystems, topography, styles of riding, and weather conditions are required, but under the conditions tested here, hiking and mountain biking appear to be similar in their environmental impacts.     

Assessing conservation opportunity on private land: socio-economic, behavioral, and spatial dimensions

This study presents a method for assessing conservation opportunity on private land based on landholders' socio-economic, behavioral, and farm characteristics. These characteristics include age, gender, education, level of off-farm income, farm size, proportion of remnant native vegetation on-farm, and ecological value of native vegetation on-farm. A sample of landholders who own greater than 2 ha of land in the South Australian Murray-Darling Basin region were sent a mail-based survey about their values and preferences for environmental management (N = 659, 52% response). Cross-tabulations and ANOVA statistical analysis techniques were used to compare the socio-economic attributes across three landholder classes: disengaged, moderately engaged, and highly engaged in native vegetation planting. Results indicate that highly engaged landholders were more likely to be female, formally educated, hobby farmers who managed small parcels of land and have high off-farm incomes, whereas disengaged landholders held significantly stronger farming connections (more farming experience, family have lived on the farm for more generations). Spatial analysis revealed area-specific differences in conservation opportunity and conservation priority. In some areas, properties of high ecological value were managed by highly engaged landholders, but nearby properties of high value were managed by moderately engaged or disengaged landholders. Environmental managers therefore cannot assume areas of high conservation priority will be areas of high conservation opportunity. At the regional scale, the potential for revegetation seems most promising within the moderately engaged landholder group considering the vast amount of land managed by this group in areas of high ecological value, particularly within the less represented Mallee and Coorong and Rangelands sub-regions. We suggest that incentive schemes which purchase conservation need to be targeted at disengaged landholders; mentoring schemes led by commercial farmers highly engaged in native vegetation planting should be directed at moderately engaged landholders, and; awards programs which acknowledge conservation successes should be targeted at highly engaged landholders.     

Use and users of municipal commonage around three small towns in the Eastern Cape, South Africa

Municipal commonages surround many small towns throughout South Africa, and are an integral component of the national land reform programme. But little is known about their extent, use or value, and most appear to have limited or no management or investment. This paper reports on a survey of randomly selected households in three small towns in the Eastern Cape to ascertain the extent and purpose of use of municipal commonages. Between 27% and 70% of urban households used commonage depending on site. Key resources used were fuelwood, medicinal plants, and grazing of livestock. Typically, commonage using households were poorer and less educated than other urban residents, although the profile of users is unique for each town. Given the extensive use of commonage resources, and their contribution to the livelihoods of the poor, local municipalities need to develop and implement sound management strategies that account for all users of commonages, rather than the oft encountered focus on livestock owners and production.     

Skier and Snowboarder Motivations and Knowledge Related to Voluntary Environmental Programs at an Alpine Ski Area

Many alpine ski areas have recently adopted voluntary environmental programs (VEPs) such as using recycling, renewable energy, and biofuels to help reduce their environmental impacts. Studies have addressed the performance of these VEPs in mitigating environmental impacts of this industry, but little is known about visitor awareness and perceptions of these programs. This article addresses this knowledge gap by exploring skier and snowboarder knowledge of VEPs at a ski area and the influence of these programs on their motivations to visit this area currently and behavioral intentions to visit again in the future. Data were obtained from an onsite survey at the Mt. Bachelor ski area in Oregon, USA (n = 429, 89.7% response rate). Few skiers and snowboarders were knowledgeable of VEPs at this area and fewer than 20% were motivated to visit on their current trip because of these programs. Other attributes such as scenery, snow conditions, and access were more important for influencing visitation. Up to 38% of skiers and snowboarders, however, intend to visit this ski area more often if it adopts and promotes more VEPs. Managers can use these results to inform communication and marketing of their environmental programs and performance to visitors. Additional implications for management and future research are discussed.     

Congruence Among Encounters,Norms, Crowding,and Management in a Marine Protected Area

Over the past few decades, recreation and tourism use has increased at many marine protected areas, generating concerns about impacts of this increasing use on experiences and conditions at these areas (e.g., crowding, conflict). This article uses data from Molokini Shoal Marine Life Conservation District in Hawai’i to examine: (a) reported encounters, crowding, normative tolerances for various use levels, and support of use related management strategies at this site; and (b) whether users who encounter higher use levels than their norms feel more crowded and are more supportive of restrictive management strategies. Data were obtained from onsite pre-trip and post-trip questionnaires of 712 passengers on commercial snorkel and dive tours visiting this site. Norms were measured with acceptance of 12 photographs depicting levels of boat use. On average, users would accept seeing no more than approximately 16 boats at one time at Molokini and this number was observed on over 20% of trips to the site. Although the majority of users expected to escape crowds at Molokini, 67% felt crowded and up to 79% supported actions that would directly restrict use at this site (e.g., limit number of boats). Users who encountered more boats than their normative tolerance felt more crowded and were more supportive of these management strategies. Findings suggest that this marine protected area is operating over its capacity and management is needed to improve experiences and conditions.