Using expert opinion to prioritize impacts of climate change on sea turtles’ nesting grounds

Managers and conservationists often need to prioritize which impacts from climate change to deal with from a long list of threats. However, data which allows comparison of the relative impact from climatic threats for decision-making is often unavailable. This is the case for the management of sea turtles in the face of climate change. The terrestrial life stages of sea turtles can be negatively impacted by various climatic processes, such as sea level rise, altered cyclonic activity, and increased sand temperatures. However, no study has systematically investigated the relative impact of each of these climatic processes, making it challenging for managers to prioritize their decisions and resources. To address this we offer a systematic method for eliciting expert knowledge to estimate the relative impact of climatic processes on sea turtles’ terrestrial reproductive phase. For this we used as an example the world’s largest population of green sea turtles and asked 22 scientists and managers to answer a paper based survey with a series of pair-wise comparison matrices that compared the anticipated impacts from each climatic process. Both scientists and managers agreed that increased sand temperature will likely cause the most threat to the reproductive output of the nGBR green turtle population followed by sea level rise, then altered cyclonic activity. The methodology used proved useful to determine the relative impact of the selected climatic processes on sea turtles’ reproductive output and provided valuable information for decision-making. Thus, the methodological approach can potentially be applied to other species and ecosystems of management concern.     

Human visitation rates to the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore and the introduction of the non-native species Lymantria dispar (L.)

The introduction of non-native species has accelerated due to increasing levels of global trade and travel, threatening the composition and function of ecosystems. Upon arrival and successful establishment, biological invaders begin to spread and often do so with considerable assistance from humans. Recreational areas can be especially prone to the problem of accidental non-native species transport given the number of visitors that arrive from geographically diverse areas. In this paper, we examine camping permit data to the Apostle Islands National Lakeshore in northwestern Wisconsin, USA, from 1999 to 2007 relative to gypsy moth distribution, phenology and outbreak data. During this time, gypsy moth populations became established in this area ahead of the moving population front of the gypsy moth, suggesting anthropogenic introduction. The permit data revealed that the majority of visitors arrived from outside of the gypsy moth established area. However, there was a consistent yearly trend of visitors that arrived from areas of high gypsy moth populations and who arrived during the gypsy moth life stage (egg masses) most likely to be successfully introduced. Using available data on the gypsy moth and its relationship to camping permit data, we describe how recreational managers could optimize park strategies to mitigate unwanted introductions of the gypsy moth as well as develop analogous strategies for managing other biological invaders in recreational areas.     

The influence of use,environmental and managerial factors on the width of recreational trails

This paper evaluates the relative influences of use, managerial and environmental factors on trail width, from a survey of all formal trails in Acadia National Park, Maine, USA. A Trimble GPS was used to navigate to and collect data at sample points spaced at a 152.4 m (500 ft) interval across all National Park Service trails on Mount Desert Island. Regression analyses focus on increasing understanding of factors that influence the width of formal hiking trails. ANOVA analyses demonstrate differences in trail width based on trail surface type (class), and the presence or absence of trail borders. A novel approach of comparing intended widths to actual widths enabled us to look specifically at the avoidable and undesirable impacts associated with having a trail that is wider than intended.     

An assessment of long term ecosystem research activities across European socio-ecological gradients

Integration of European long term ecosystem research (LTER) would provide important support for the management of the pan-European environment and ecosystems, as well as international policy commitments. This does require appropriate coverage of Europe and standardised frameworks and research methods between countries. Emerging interest in socio-ecological systems prompted the present assessment of the distribution of LTER activities across European socio-ecological gradients. This paper presents a European stratification with a 1 km² resolution, delineating 48 broad socio-ecological regions. The dataset is based on an existing biogeophysical stratification constructed using multivariate clustering of mainly climatic variables and a newly developed socio-economic stratification based on an economic density indicator. The coverage of European LTER facilities across the socio-ecological gradients is tested using this dataset. The analysis shows two strong biases in the present LTER effort. Firstly, urban and disturbed regions are consistently under-represented, illustrating a bias for traditional ecological research away from human activity. Secondly, the Mediterranean, for which some of the most extreme global change impacts are projected, is receiving comparatively little attention. Both findings can help guide future investment in the European LTER network – and especially in a Long Term Socio-Ecological Research (LTSER) component– to provide a more balanced coverage. This will provide better scientific understanding of pan-European environmental concerns and support the management of natural resources and international policy commitments in the European Union.     

A model for assessing habitat fragmentation caused by new infrastructures in extensive territories – Evaluation of the impact of the Spanish strategic infrastructure and transport plan

The aim of the present work is to design a model for evaluating the impact of planned infrastructures on species survival at the territorial scale by calculating a connectivity index. The method developed involves determining the effective distance of displacement between patches of the same habitat, simplifying earlier models so that there is no dependence on specific variables for each species. A case study is presented in which the model was used to assess the impact of the forthcoming roads and railways included in the Spanish Strategic Infrastructure and Transport Plan (PEIT, in its Spanish initials).This study took into account the habitats of peninsular Spain, which occupies an area of some 500,000 km². In this territory, the areas deemed to provide natural habitats are defined by Directive 92/43/EEC. The impact of new infrastructures on connectivity was assessed by comparing two scenarios, with and without the plan, for the major new road and railway networks. The calculation of the connectivity index (CI) requires the use of a raster methodology based on the Arc/Info geographical information system (GIS). The actual calculation was performed using a program written in Arc/Info Macro Language (AML); this program is available in FragtULs (Mancebo Quintana, 2007), a set of tools for calculating indicators of fragmentation caused by transport infrastructure (http://topografia.montes.upm.es/fragtuls.html).The indicator of connectivity proposed allows the estimation of the connectivity between all the patches of a territory, with no artificial (non-ecologically based) boundaries imposed. The model proposed appears to be a useful tool for the analysis of fragmentation caused by plans for large territories.     

Economic assessment of flash co-pyrolysis of short rotation coppice and biopolymer waste streams

The disposal problem associated with phytoextraction of farmland polluted with heavy metals by means of willow requires a biomass conversion technique which meets both ecological and economical needs. Combustion and gasification of willow require special and costly flue gas treatment to avoid re-emission of the metals in the atmosphere, whereas flash pyrolysis mainly results in the production of (almost) metal free bio-oil with a relatively high water content. Flash co-pyrolysis of biomass and waste of biopolymers synergistically improves the characteristics of the pyrolysis process: e.g. reduction of the water content of the bio-oil, more bio-oil and less char production and an increase of the HHV of the oil. This research paper investigates the economic consequences of the synergistic effects of flash co-pyrolysis of 1:1 w/w ratio blends of willow and different biopolymer waste streams via cost-benefit analysis and Monte Carlo simulations taking into account uncertainties. In all cases economic opportunities of flash co-pyrolysis of biomass with biopolymer waste are improved compared to flash pyrolysis of pure willow. Of all the biopolymers under investigation, polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) is the most promising, followed by Eastar, Biopearls, potato starch, polylactic acid (PLA), corn starch and Solanyl in order of decreasing profits. Taking into account uncertainties, flash co-pyrolysis is expected to be cheaper than composting biopolymer waste streams, except for corn starch. If uncertainty increases, composting also becomes more interesting than flash co-pyrolysis for waste of Solanyl. If the investment expenditure is 15% higher in practice than estimated, the preference for flash co-pyrolysis compared to composting biopolymer waste becomes less clear. Only when the system of green current certificates is dismissed, composting clearly is a much cheaper processing technique for disposing of biopolymer waste.     

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation,Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi1

Frey, Ashley E., Francisco Olivera, Jennifer L. Irish, Lauren M. Dunkin, James M. Kaihatu, Celso M. Ferreira, and Billy L. Edge, 2010. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation, Population Affected and Property Damages in Corpus Christi. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1–11. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00475.x Abstract: The effect of climate change on storm-surge flooding and the implications for population and structural damages on the city of Corpus Christi, Texas, was investigated. The study considered the influence of sea level rise and hurricane intensification, both influenced by climate change. Combinations of future carbon dioxide equivalent emission rates and carbon dioxide doubling sensitivities, based on findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, were considered to define future climate scenarios. A suite of physically based numerical models for hurricane winds and the resulting waves, surge, and morphological change at the coast were used to determine flooded areas, population affected, and property damages for Hurricanes Bret, Beulah, and a version of Carla shifted south from its original track, under present and predicted future climate conditions. A comparison of the economic damages for current climate conditions and for the 2080s climate scenario shows that, for Carla (shifted), there will be an increase in the range of $270-1,100 million; for Beulah, of $100-390 million; and, for Bret, of $30-280 million. A similar analysis was also conducted for 2030s predicted climate scenarios. Overall, the comparison of the results for the different climate conditions indicates what the destructive consequences of climate change could be, even within the somewhat short time frame of 80 years considered here.     

Investigation of potentially toxic heavy metals in different organic wastes used to fertilize market garden crops

The benefits of using organic waste as fertilizer and soil amendment should be assessed together with the environmental impacts due to the possible presence of heavy metals (HMs). This study involved analysing major element and HM contents in raw and size-fractionated organic wastes (17 sewage sludges and composts) from developed and developing countries. The overall HM concentration pattern showed an asymmetric distribution due to the presence of some wastes with extremely high concentrations. HM concentrations were correlated with the size of cities or farms where the wastes had been produced, and HM were differentiated with respect to their origins (geogenic: Cr–Ni; anthropogenic agricultural and urban: Cu–Zn; anthropogenic urban: Cd–Pb). Size fractionation highlighted Cd, Cu, Zn and Pb accumulation in fine size fractions, while Cr and Ni were accumulated in the coarsest. HM associations with major elements revealed inorganic (Al, Fe, etc.) bearing phases for Cr and Ni, and sulfur or phosphorus species for Cd, Cu Pb and Zn.     

The variability in nutrient composition of Anaerobic Digestate granules produced from high shear granulation

This study investigates the production of organic fertilizer using Anaerobic Digestate (as a nutrient source) and limestone powder as the raw materials. A two-level factorial experimental design was used to determine the influence of process variables on the nutrient homogeneity within the granules. Increasing the liquid-to-solid ratio during granulation resulted in increased granule nutrient homogeneity. Increasing the processing time and the impeller speed were also found to increase the nutrient homogeneity. In terms of nutrients release into deionized water, the granules effectively released both potassium and phosphate into solution.