A WATER POLICY-LAND USE COMPUTER SIMULATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the philosophy, algorithms, and implementation of a computer-oriented land use forecasting-water policy simulation model. The model is applicable to SMSA's organized on a census tract basis by counties. The forecasts are macro to the census tract level for industrial, residential, commercial and public land uses, and are dynamically altered by hypothesized water management policies. Modeling is based on an economic data base of the region, and is extremely flexible for the user. An example set of simulations is included for illustrative purposes.     

The epidemiology of lawn trimmer injuries in the United States: 2000-2009

IntroductionYard maintenance equipment is potentially dangerous, and some of the more frequency used equipment (e.g., lawn mowers) has been extensively studied. However, the extent of lawn trimmers as a source of injury has not previously been explored.MethodsData from the Consumer Product Safety Commission's National Electronic Injury Surveillance System were used to estimate the number of patients treated in U.S. emergency departments for lawn trimmer-related injuries. Injury rates were calculated according to age, sex, and race, and characteristics of the injury event were determined.ResultsAn estimated 81,907 injuries involving a lawn trimmer occurred from 2000–2009. The incidence generally increased over time. Men, people aged 40–49, and Caucasians were the groups most likely to be injured. The most commonly injured body part was the head, specifically the eye, accounting for 42.5% of the injuries. Contusions and abrasions were the most common type of injury to the head, but lacerations were the most common injury to the extremities, and strains/sprains were the most common injury to the trunk.DiscussionAlthough previous research on lawn trimmers has focused exclusively on injuries to the eyes, the results of the current study show that such injuries are one component of the problem. Because most of the injuries were due to foreign objects, it is important that the use of adequate safety gear be emphasized when operating lawn trimmers.Impact on IndustryResults suggest that lawn trimmer design changes and better safety education for trimmer use can reduce the rate of injury and reverse the current trend.     

Lack of sequestration of host plant glucosinolates in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pieris rapae</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">P. grarricae</Emphasis>

Summary. Sequestration of plant toxins in herbivores is often correlated with aposematic coloration and gregarious behaviour. Larvae of Pieris brassicae show these conspicuous morphological and behavioural characteristics and were thus suggested to sequester glucosinolates that are characteristic secondary metabolites of their host plants. P. rapaeare camouflaged and solitary, and are thus not expected to sequester. To test this hypothesis and to check the repeatabi-lity of a study that did report the presence of the glucosinolate sinigrin in P. brassicae, larvae were reared on three species of Brassicaceae (Sinapis alba, Brassica nigra and Barbarea stricta), and different leaf and insect samples were taken for glucosinolate analysis. The major host plant glucosinolates could only be found in traces or not at all in larval haemolymph, bled or starved larvae, faeces or pupae of both species or P. brassicae regurgitant. Haemolymph of both Pieris spp. was not rejected by the ant Myrmica rubra in dual-choice assays; the regurgitant of P. brassicae was rejected. This suggests the presence of compounds other than glucosinolates that might be sequestered in or produced by P. brassicae only. In faeces of both Pieris spp. a compound which yielded 4-hydroxybenzylcyanide (HBC) upon incubation with sulfatase was detected in high concentrations when larvae had been reared on S. alba. This compound may be derived from hydrolysis of sinalbin, the main glucosinolate of that plant. The unidentified HBC progenitor was apparently not sequestered in the two Pieris spp., and was not detected in faeces of larvae reared on B. nigra or B. stricta. Received 18 July 2002; accepted 11 September 2002.     

Assessing Risks to Biodiversity from Future Landscape Change

We examined the impacts of possible future land development patterns on the biodiversity of a landscape. Our landscape data included a remote sensing derived map of the current habitat of the study area and six maps of future habitat distributions resulting from different land development scenarios. Our species data included lists of all bird, mammal, reptile, and amphibian species in the study area, their habitat associations, and area requirements for each. We estimated the area requirements using home ranges, sampled population densities, or genetic area requirements that incorporate dispersal distances. Our measures of biodiversity were species richness and habitat abundance. We calculated habitat abundance in two ways. First, we computed the total habitat area for each species in each landscape. Second, we calculated the number of habitat units for each species in each landscape by dividing the size of each habitat patch in the landscape by the area requirement and summing over all patches. Species richness was based on presence of habitat. Species became extinct in the landscape if they had no habitat area or no habitat units, respectively. We then computed ratios of habitat abundance in each future landscape to habitat abundance in the present for each species. We also computed the ratio of future to present species richness. We then calculated summary statistics across all species. Species richness changed little from present to future. There were distinctly greater risks to habitat abundance in landscapes that extrapolated from present trends or zoning patterns, however, as opposed to landscapes in which land development activities followed more constrained patterns. These results were stable when tested using Monte Carlo simulations and sensitivity tests on the area requirements. We conclude that this methodology can begin to discriminate the effects of potential changes in land development on vertebrate biodiversity.     

Systemic retention of ingested cantharidin by frogs

Summary Frogs(Rana pipiens) fed on blister beetles (Meloidae) or cantharidin, retain cantharidin systemically. After cessation of feeding, they void the compound relatively quickly. Systemic cantharidin does not protect frogs against ectoparasitic feeding by leeches(Hirudo medicinalis) or predation by snakes(Nerodia sipedon). As suggested by our data, and from reports in the early literature, ingestion of cantharidin-containing frogs can pose a health threat to humans.Paper no. 95 of the seriesDefense Mechanisms of Arthropods; no. 94 is LaMunyon & Eisner, Psyche (in press)     

Echolocation by cave swiftlets

Summary The ability of cave dwelling swiftlets (Collocalia spodiopygius) to detect small cylindrical obstacles by echolocation was tested in a 3x9 m flight chamber. Although there was great individual variability, 6.3 mm obstacles were avoided much more often in total darkness than 1.5 wires (P<0.001). Flash photographs showed that the latter were avoided only by chance (about 50% misses). Obstacles 3.0 mm in diameter were avoided only slightly more often than 1.5 mm wires.Even in the light these swiftlets avoided the obstacles in only about 75% of the trials, probably because gentle touches with the primary feathers caused little discomfort.The 3.0 and 6.3 mm obstacles tended to be avoided more often on first encounters after they had been shifted horizontally by 10–30 cm, probably because the birds became more attentive.     

Calculating pesticide sorption coefficients (Kd) using selected soil properties

Pesticide soil/solution distribution coefficients ( Kd values), commonly referred to as pesticide soil sorption values, are utilized in computer and decision aid models to predict soil mobility of the compounds. The values are specific for a given chemical in a given soil sample, normally taken from surface soil, a selected soil horizon, or at a specific soil depth, and are normally related to selected soil properties. Pesticide databases provide Kd values for each chemical, but the values vary widely depending on the soil sample on which the chemicals were tested. We have correlated Kd values reported in the literature with the reported soil properties for an assortment of pesticides in an attempt to improve the accuracy of a Kd value for a specific chemical in a soil with known soil properties. Mathematical equations were developed from regression equations for the related properties. Soil properties that were correlated included organic matter content, clay mineral content, and/or soil pH, depending on the chemical properties of the pesticide. Pesticide families for which Kd equations were developed for 57 pesticides include the following: Carboxy acid, amino sulfonyl acid, hydroxy acid, weakly basic compounds and nonionizable amide/anilide, carbamate, dinitroaniline, organochlorine, organophosphate, and phenylurea compounds. Mean Kd values for 32 additional pesticides, many of which had Kd values that were correlated with specific soil properties but for which no significant Kd equations could be developed are also included.     

The fate and removal of triclosan during wastewater treatment.

This work examines the variation in removal efficiency of triclosan in wastewater treatment works in the United Kingdom between November 2003 and April 2004. Concentrations of triclosan were measured at set points within three different types of wastewater treatment works: rotating biological contactors, trickling filters, and activated sludge. Overall removal of triclosan through these plants ranged from 58 to 96% (rotating biological contactors), 86 to 97% (trickling filter), and 95 to 98% (activated sludge).     

Controlled release, blind test of DNAPL remediation by ethanol flushing

A dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) source zone was established within a sheet-pile isolated cell through a controlled release of perchloroethylene (PCE) to evaluate DNAPL remediation by in-situ cosolvent flushing. Ethanol was used as the cosolvent, and the main remedial mechanism was enhanced dissolution based on the phase behavior of the water-ethanol-PCE system. Based on the knowledge of the actual PCE volume introduced into the cell, it was estimated that 83 L of PCE were present at the start of the test. Over a 40-day period, 64% of the PCE was removed by flushing the cell with an alcohol solution of approximately 70% ethanol and 30% water. High removal efficiencies at the end of the test indicated that more PCE could have been removed had it been possible to continue the demonstration. The ethanol solution extracted from the cell was recycled during the test using activated carbon and air stripping treatment. Both of these treatment processes were successful in removing PCE for recycling purposes, with minimal impact on the ethanol content in the treated fluids. Results from pre- and post-flushing partitioning tracer tests overestimated the treatment performance. However, both of these tracer tests missed significant amounts of the PCE present, likely due to inaccessibility of the PCE. The tracer results suggest that some PCE was inaccessible to the ethanol solution which led to the inefficient PCE removal rates observed. The flux-averaged aqueous PCE concentrations measured in the post-flushing tracer test were reduced by a factor of 3 to 4 in the extraction wells that showed the highest PCE removal compared to those concentrations in the pre-flushing tracer test.