Temporal and spatial variation in the δ<Superscript>15</Superscript>N and δ<Superscript>13</Superscript>C values of fish and squid from Alaskan waters

To test the hypothesis that stable isotope ratios from marine organisms vary, the δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C values from fish and squid collected in Alaskan waters were measured across years (1997, 2000, and 2005), seasons, geographic locations, and different size/age classes, and between muscle tissue and whole animals. Temporal, geographic, and ontogenetic differences in stable isotope ratios ranged from 0.5–2.5‰ (δ¹⁵N) to 0.5–2.0‰ (δ¹³C). Twenty-one comparisons of stable isotope values between whole organisms and muscle tissue revealed only four small differences each for δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C, making costly and space prohibitive collection of whole animals unnecessary. The data from this study indicate that significant variations of stable isotope values from animals in marine systems necessitates collection of prey and predator tissues from the same time and place for best interpretation of stable isotope analysis in foraging ecology studies.     

Calculated physical properties of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans

The modified neglect of diatomic overlap (MNDO) method, a semi-empirical molecular orbital calculation, has been used to calculate the heats of formation, ionization potentials, dipole moments, and LUMOs (lowest unoccupied molecular orbitals) for all of the tetra, penta, hexa, hepta, and octa-chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans. These data have been used to predict gas chromatographic retention indexes.     

Managing dependencies in forest offset projects: toward a more complete evaluation of reversal risk

Although forest carbon offsets can play an important role in the implementation of comprehensive climate policy, they also face an inherent risk of reversal. If such risks are positively correlated across projects, it can affect the integrity of larger project portfolios and potentially the entire offsets program. Here, we discuss three types of risks that could affect forest offsets—fat tails, micro-correlation, and tail dependence—and provide examples of how they could present themselves in a forest offset context. Given these potential dependencies, we suggest several new risk management approaches that take into account dependencies in reversal risk across projects and which could help guard the climate integrity of an offsets program. We also argue that data collection be included as an integral part of any offsets program so that disturbance-related dependencies may be identified and managed as early and to the greatest extent possible.     

Time‐Dependent Health Risk from Contaminated Groundwater Including Use of Reliability,Resilience, and Vulnerability as Measures

Traditionally, assessment of human health risk caused by contamination of a water supply focuses on the maximum risk to an individual. Here, we introduce a time‐dependent risk assessment method and adapt and explore the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (RRV) criteria from the surface‐water literature as possible tools for assessing this risk. Time‐dependent risk assessment, including RRV, is applied to two synthetic examples where water quality at a well varies over time. We calculate time‐dependent health risks for discrete periods of exposure to the contaminated water for a variable population. The RRV criteria provide information about time‐dependent risk: probability of an acceptable risk, probability of system recovery, maximum risk, and average exceedance of a prescribed risk threshold. The results demonstrate that episodic contamination events produce fundamentally different time‐dependent risks than long‐term events: these differences, such as generally lower risks for the episodic contamination, can be captured via plots of the risk and the RRV criteria. Furthermore, the evaluation of time‐dependent health risk and the RRV criteria demonstrates significant sensitivity to the shape of the contaminant breakthrough curve, length of exposure, and variability within the population. Overall, analysis of time‐dependent health risks provides substantial insight into the structure of risk, with RRV providing a reasonable framework for the evaluation of these risks.     

Hierarchical Bayesian strategy for modeling correlated compositional data with observed zero counts

This article proposes a hierarchical multivariate conditional autoregressive model applied to a compositional response vector. We particularly focus on situations when the composition is discrete occurring when observations are based on small multinomial counts. We address drawbacks that exist in current modeling approaches for such data. Our hierarchical model will be demonstrated with data used to help manage a commercial sockeye salmon fishery in the Fraser River of British Columbia.     

The Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) Framework: A Tool for Incorporating Climate Change into Natural Resource Management

As natural resource management agencies and conservation organizations seek guidance on responding to climate change, myriad potential actions and strategies have been proposed for increasing the long-term viability of some attributes of natural systems. Managers need practical tools for selecting among these actions and strategies to develop a tailored management approach for specific targets at a given location. We developed and present one such tool, the participatory Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework, which considers the effects of climate change in the development of management actions for particular species, ecosystems and ecological functions. Our framework is based on the premise that effective adaptation of management to climate change can rely on local knowledge of an ecosystem and does not necessarily require detailed projections of climate change or its effects. We illustrate the ACT framework by applying it to an ecological function in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho, USA)-water flows in the upper Yellowstone River. We suggest that the ACT framework is a practical tool for initiating adaptation planning, and for generating and communicating specific management interventions given an increasingly altered, yet uncertain, climate.     

Combustion as the Principal Source of Carbonaceous Aerosol in the Ohio River Valley

Organic and elemental carbon and a number of carboxylic acids and n-alkanes were measured in aerosol samples collected at three sites in the Ohio River Valley between October 1980 and August 1981. Approximately 100 filters were analyzed for organic and elemental carbon for each site. For the 11-month period organic and elemental carbon comprised about 19 percent of the total aerosol mass with about two-thirds of the carbon as organic. Regression analysis showed that the principal source of organic carbon was combustion. The measurements of the specific organic compounds indicated a weak biogenic component to the organic aerosol.     

Air Quality Management in Los Angeles: Perspectives on Past and Future Emission Control Strategies

The 1988 Air Quality Management Plan was approved by the Board of the California South Coast Air Quality Management District in March 1989. The District comprises the counties of Los Angeles, Orange, and Riverside, and the non-desert portion of San Bernardino county. Emissions reductions in the past have lead to significant improvement in air quality despite large increases in growth. However, the District, largely because of continuous growth, currently violates the air quality standards for ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, and respirable particulate matter (PM₁₀). Based upon the AQMP, reduction of approximately 80 percent in emissions of oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic compounds is required to bring the District into compliance with all air quality standards in the next twenty years.

Achieving compliance will necessitate the use of advanced technologies, as well as some changes in lifestyle and management practices. Advanced technologies, including the use of electric vehicles powered by batteries or fuel cells, the use of cleaner burning fuels and advanced combustion modifications, and treatment of surface coatings and solvents are included in the AQMP. The Technology Advancement Office in the District was created to work with industry, universities, research institutes, and other local, state and federal agencies to identify, evaluate, and promote low emitting fuels and technologies. In addition to electricity, fuels burning cleaner than conventional gasoline or diesel are being tested to obtain emissions and durability data so that rational choices can be made for the future. Compressed natural gas, methanol and liquefied petroleum gas are considered to be cleaner burning fuels for current applications. Ethanol, butane, and various oxygenated blends are being evaluated, and the broader application of solar energy and hydrogen are being investigated.

The impact of various cleaner burning fuels on air quality is being addressed. To date, methanol is the only fuel for which results are available. These results indicate that methanol use in vehicles—with control of formaldehyde emissions below 15 mg/mile for light-duty vehicles—can provide air quality benefits for all criteria pollutants and certain air toxics. These benefits are greater for M₁₀₀ than M₈₅.

Several District advanced technology programs are described, including a reduction in emissions from paints and coatings, and the demonstration of electric vehicles.