System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts

Accurate prediction of municipal water demand is critically important to water utilities in fast-growing urban regions for drinking water system planning, design, and water utility asset management. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is challenging, however, because the forecasting model must simultaneously consider a variety of factors associated with climate changes, economic development, population growth and migration, and even consumer behavioral patterns. Traditional forecasting models such as multivariate regression and time series analysis, as well as advanced modeling techniques (e.g., expert systems and artificial neural networks), are often applied for either short- or long-term water demand projections, yet few can adequately manage the dynamics of a water supply system because of the limitations in modeling structures. Potential challenges also arise from a lack of long and continuous historical records of water demand and its dependent variables. The objectives of this study were to (1) thoroughly review water demand forecasting models over the past five decades, and (2) propose a new system dynamics model to reflect the intrinsic relationship between water demand and macroeconomic environment using out-of-sample estimation for long-term municipal water demand forecasts in a fast-growing urban region. This system dynamics model is based on a coupled modeling structure that takes into account the interactions among economic and social dimensions, offering a realistic platform for practical use. Practical implementation of this water demand forecasting tool was assessed by using a case study under the most recent alternate fluctuations of economic boom and downturn environments.     

Relationships between net primary productivity and stand age for several forest types and their influence on China's carbon balance

Affected by natural and anthropogenic disturbances such as forest fires, insect-induced mortality and harvesting, forest stand age plays an important role in determining the distribution of carbon pools and fluxes in a variety of forest ecosystems. An improved understanding of the relationship between net primary productivity (NPP) and stand age (i.e., age-related increase and decline in forest productivity) is essential for the simulation and prediction of the global carbon cycle at annual, decadal, centurial, or even longer temporal scales. In this paper, we developed functions describing the relationship between national mean NPP and stand age using stand age information derived from forest inventory data and NPP simulated by the BEPS (Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator) model in 2001. Due to differences in ecobiophysical characteristics of different forest types, NPP-age equations were developed for five typical forest ecosystems in China (deciduous needleleaf forest (DNF), evergreen needleleaf forest in tropic and subtropical zones (ENF-S), deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF), evergreen broadleaf forest (EBF), and mixed broadleaf forest (MBF)). For DNF, ENF-S, EBF, and MBF, changes in NPP with age were well fitted with a common non-linear function, with R(2) values equal to 0.90, 0.75, 0.66, and 0.67, respectively. In contrast, a second order polynomial was best suitable for simulating the change of NPP for DBF, with an R(2) value of 0.79. The timing and magnitude of the maximum NPP varied with forest types. DNF, EBF, and MBF reached the peak NPP at the age of 54, 40, and 32 years, respectively, while the NPP of ENF-S maximizes at the age of 13 years. The highest NPP of DBF appeared at 122 years. NPP was generally lower in older stands with the exception of DBF, and this particular finding runs counter to the paradigm of age-related decline in forest growth. Evaluation based on measurements of NPP and stand age at the plot-level demonstrates the reliability and applicability of the fitted NPP-age relationships. These relationships were used to replace the normalized NPP-age relationship used in the original InTEC (Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon) model, to improve the accuracy of estimated carbon balance for China's forest ecosystems. With the revised NPP-age relationship, the InTEC model simulated a larger carbon source from 1950-1980 and a larger carbon sink from 1985-2001 for China's forests than the original InTEC model did because of the modification to the age-related carbon dynamics in forests. This finding confirms the importance of considering the dynamics of NPP related to forest age in estimating regional and global terrestrial carbon budgets.     

Major Forest Types and the Evolution of Sustainable Forestry in China

In this article, we introduce China’s major forest types and discuss the historical development of forest management in China, including actions taken over the last decade toward achieving SMF. Major challenges are identified, and a strategy for SFM implementation in China is presented. China’s forests consist of a wide variety of types with distinctive distributional patterns shaped by complex topography and multiple climate regimes. How to manage this wide array of forest resources has challenged forest managers and policy-makers since the founding of the country. Excessive exploitation of China's forest resources from the 1950s to the late 1990s contributed to environmental problems and calamities, such as floods, soil erosion, and desertification. At the start of the new millennium, the Chinese government decided to shift its emphasis from timber production towards the achievement of sustainable forest management (SFM). With a series of endeavors such as the implementation of the “Six Key Forestry Projects” and the reform of forest tenure policies, and the adoption of a classification system for China's forests, a beginning has been made at reversing the trend of environmental degradation that occurred throughout the latter half of the last century. At the same time, huge challenges remain to be tackled for the development of forestry in China.     

Integrative Management of Commercialized Wild Mushroom: A Case Study of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Thelephora ganbajun</Emphasis> in Yunnan,Southwest China

The management of wild mushroom is interdisciplinary in nature, whereby the biophysical considerations have to be incorporated into the context of a wide range of social, economic and political concerns. However, to date, little documentation exists illustrating an interdisciplinary approach to management of wild mushrooms. Moreover, the empirical case studies necessary for developing applicable and practical methods are even more rare. This paper adopted an interdisciplinary approach combining participatory methods to improve the habitat management of Thelephora ganbajun, an endemic and one of the most economically valuable mushroom species in Southwest China. The paper documents an empirical case of how an interdisciplinary approach facilitated the development of a scientific basis for policy and management practice, and built the local capacity to create, adopt and sustain the new rules and techniques of mushroom management. With this integrative perspective, a sustainable management strategy was developed, which was found not only technically feasible for farmers, but also acceptable to the government from an ecological and policy-related perspective. More importantly, this approach has greatly contributed to raising the income of farmers. The paper highlights how the integration of biophysical and socioeconomic factors and different knowledge systems provided a holistic perspective to problem diagnosis and resolution, which helped to cope with conventional scientific dilemmas. Finally, it concludes that the success of this interdisciplinary approach is significant in the context of policy decentralization and reform for incorporating indigenous knowledge and local participation in forest management.     

A resilience-based approach for comparing expert preferences across two large-scale coastal management programs

This report proposes a method for assessing resilience-building components in coastal social–ecological systems. Using the proposed model, the preferences of experts in Masan Bay (South Korea) and Puget Sound (USA) are compared. A total of 30 management objectives were determined and used to build a hierarchic tree designed using the principles of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Surveys were performed with 35 Puget Sound experts using face-to-face interviews and with 28 Masan Bay experts by mail. The results demonstrate that the legal objective, which enables legislation, was the highest preferred component in both regions. The knowledge translation variable was also given a high preference score in both regions. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that the Puget Sound experts significantly favored attention to education, habitat restoration and species protection objectives in comparison to the Masan Bay experts. The Masan Bay experts placed greater emphasis on legislation and the type of institutional design than did the Puget Sound experts. Using cluster analysis, four distinct groups of respondents were independently identified in Puget Sound and three groups were identified in Masan Bay. One unique subgroup in the Puget Sound experts group, which was characterized by its high preferences for habitat restoration and species protection, was not observed in Masan Bay. Demographic variables (length of career and role in coastal issue) failed to account for the differences in groupings and preferences in either region, except for the variable ‘favoring information source’ in the Puget Sound group. This finding implies that the demographic information was not related to differences in group opinions in both regions. The analysis framework presented here was effective in identifying expert preferences regarding the overall structure and emphasis in coastal management programs. Thus, this framework can be applied towards coastal policy development.     

Solid waste management in European countries: a review of systems analysis techniques

In the past few decades, solid waste management systems in Europe have involved complex and multi-faceted trade-offs among a plethora of technological alternatives, economic instruments, and regulatory frameworks. These changes resulted in various environmental, economic, social, and regulatory impacts in waste management practices which not only complicate regional policy analysis, but also reshape the paradigm of global sustainable development. Systems analysis, a discipline that harmonizes these integrated solid waste management strategies, has been uniquely providing interdisciplinary support for decision making in this area. Systems engineering models and system assessment tools, both of which enrich the analytical framework of waste management, were designed specifically to handle particular types of problems. Though how to smooth out the barriers toward achieving appropriate systems synthesis and integration of these models and tools to aid in the solid waste management schemes prevalent in European countries still remains somewhat uncertain. This paper conducts a thorough literature review of models and tools illuminating possible overlapped boundaries in waste management practices in European countries and encompassing the pros and cons of waste management practices in each member state of the European Union. Whereas the Southern European Union (EU) countries need to develop further measures to implement more integrated solid waste management and reach EU directives, the Central EU countries need models and tools with which to rationalize their technological choices and management strategies. Nevertheless, considering systems analysis models and tools in a synergistic way would certainly provide opportunities to develop better solid waste management strategies leading to conformity with current standards and foster future perspectives for both the waste management industry and government agencies in European Union.     

Development of Customized Fire Behavior Fuel Models for Boreal Forests of Northeastern China

Knowledge of forest fuels and their potential fire behavior across a landscape is essential in fire management. Four customized fire behavior fuel models that differed significantly in fuels characteristics and environmental conditions were identified using hierarchical cluster analysis based on fuels data collected across a boreal forest landscape in northeastern China. Fuel model I represented the dense and heavily branched Pinus pumila shrubland which has significant fine live woody fuels. These forests occur mainly at higher mountain elevations. Fuel model II is applicable to forests dominated by Betula platyphylla and Populus davidiana occurring in native forests on hill slopes or at low mountain elevations. This fuel model was differentiated from other fuel models by higher herbaceous cover and lower fine live woody loading. The primary coniferous forests dominated by Larix gmelini and Pinus sylvestris L. var. mongolica were classified as fuel model III and fuel model IV. Those fuel models differed from one another in average cover and height of understory shrub and herbaceous layers as well as in aspect. The potential fire behavior for each fuel model was simulated with the BehavePlus5.0 fire behavior prediction system. The simulation results indicated that the Pinus pumila shrubland fuels had the most severe fire behavior for the 97th percentile weather condition, and had the least severe fire behavior under 90th percentile weather condition. Fuel model II presented the least severe fire potential across weather conditions. Fuel model IV resulted in greater fire severity than Fuel model III across the two weather scenarios that were examined.     

采油作业区节能减排探索与实践

H作业区经过对节能减排中问题的总结,实施了哈得四联合站放空气回收轻烃外输、哈得一联合站二段气回收、污水闭路循环回收利用、淡化水流程优化等节能减排工程,促进了节能减排,减少了碳排放,实现了清洁生产,取得了较好的经济效益和环境效益。     

河北省县域可持续发展评价指标体系的建立与应用研究

以可持续发展相关理论为基础,利用系统工程的理论和方法建立了河北省县域可持续发展指标体系及其评价标准,并在全省范围应用,对全省136个县(市)可持续发展能力做出了评价。结合评价结果,阐述了河北省县域可持续发展能力的特征,提出了河北省县域可持续发展的方向和思路。     

提高水中BOD5测定质量的探讨

介绍了环境空气质量、分析用水、接种液加入量、曝气方法的选择等因素对BOD5测定的影响。提出测定过程中实验室空气质量、分析用水的选择、接种液的选择和加入量以及曝气方法应注意事项,以期得到较为准确的测定结果,提高废水中BOD5测定质量。