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721.
Correcting the carbon cycle representation: How important is it for the economics of climate change?
F. Joos G. Müller-Fürstenberger G. Stephan 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》1999,4(2-3):133-140
Economic analyses of the greenhouse effect are typically carried out within the framework of computable general equilibrium models which represent the climate system by simple two box proxies based upon the pioneering work of Nordhaus. Since errors in predicting the carbon budget can imply high costs, there is some need to include more sophisticated climate models into the economics of global climate change. This paper presents a non-linear pulse representation of the process-based and data-validated Bern carbon model. Compared to the Nordhaus approach this leads to different results with respect to optimal climate policy and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. In particular, our results suggest that economic studies which use a Nordhaus representation of the climate system are biased towards high carbon emission and low abatement levels. 相似文献
722.
723.
In dune slacks in The Netherlands, a decline of rare mesotrophic basiphilous plant species and their plant communities has
been observed in combination with an increase of more productive systems with common, taller acidophilous plant species. This
has been attributed to both natural and anthropogenic changes. In a humid climate with a precipitation surplus, as in The
Netherlands, the calcium carbonate content of a calcareous soil increases with depth. However, soils in coastal dune slacks,
may have a higher carbonate content in the topsoil horizon than in the underlying layers. Carbonates which buffer the pH can
prolong the presence of mesotrophic basiphilous plant communities which are of high conservation value.
To explain the occurrence of calcareous surface horizons in dune slacks, hydrological and micromorphological analyses were
carried out in three dune slacks. Two slacks are situated on the Wadden Sea islands in the northern part of The Netherlands;
one on Schiermonnikoog and one on Texel. The third slack is situated in the dunes on the island of Goeree in the southwestern
part of The Netherlands. In all three slacks, carbonate occurs as mollusc and gastropod fragments (silt- or sand-sized) and
as micritic nodules in the topsoil layer, due to aeolian deposition and sedimentation by water.In situ carbonate accumulation (calcitans and calcareous crusts) due to CO2 release in inundated and/or capillary rise of calcareous groundwater near, or at the soil surface. Accumulation of carbonate
also occurs as a result of biological activity by algae in the topsoil of the Goeree site. In general, hydrological processes
maintaining high levels of calcareous groundwater are a prerequisite for the maintenance of high carbonate levels in topsoils.
Such levels are necessary for the conservation and management of basiphilous pioneer vegetation. 相似文献
724.
Angulo J.M González-Manteiga W. Febrero-Bande M. Alonso F. J. 《Environmental and Ecological Statistics》1998,5(4):297-316
The problem of estimation and prediction of a spatial-temporal stochastic process, observed at regular times and irregularly in space, is considered. A mixed formulation involving a non- parametric component, accounting for a deterministic trend and the effect of exogenous variables, and a parametric component representing the purely spatio-temporal random variation is proposed. Correspondingly, a two-step procedure, first addressing the estimation of the non- parametric component, and then the estimation of the parametric component is developed from the residual series obtained, with spatial-temporal prediction being performed in terms of suitable spatial interpolation of the temporal variation structure. The proposed model formula-tion, together with the estimation and prediction procedure, are applied using a Gaussian ARMA structure for temporal modelling to space-time forecasting from real data of air pollution concentration levels in the region surrounding a power station in northwest Spain. 相似文献
725.
Restricted adaptive cluster sampling 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
Adaptive cluster sampling can be a useful design for sampling rare and patchy populations. With this design the initial sample size is fixed but the size of the final sample (and total sampling effort) cannot be predicted prior to sampling. For some populations the final sample size can be quite variable depending on the level of patchiness. Restricted adaptive cluster sampling is a proposed modification where a limit is placed on the sample size prior to sampling and quadrats are selected sequentially for the initial sample size. As a result there is less variation in the final sample size and the total sampling effort can be predicted with some certainty, which is impor- tant for many ecological studies. Estimates of density are biased with the restricted design but under some circumstances the bias can be estimated well by bootstrapping. © Rapid Science 1998 相似文献
726.
M. Zimmer J. P. Danko S. C. Pennings A. R. Danford A. Ziegler R. F. Uglow T. H. Carefoot 《Marine Biology》2001,138(5):955-963
Three isopod species (Crustacea: Isopoda), commonly found in the intertidal and supratidal zones of the North American Pacific
coast, were studied with respect to symbiotic microbiota in their midgut glands (hepatopancreas). Ligia pallasii (Oniscidea: Ligiidae) contained high numbers of microbial symbionts in its hepatopancreatic caeca. Numbers of endosymbionts
were strongly reduced by ingestion of antibiotics. By contrast, the hepatopancreas of Idotea wosnesenskii (Valvifera: Idoteidae) and Gnorimosphaeroma oregonense (Sphaeromatidea: Sphaeromatidae) did not contain any microbiota. Results of feeding experiments suggest that microbial endosymbionts
contribute to digestive processes in L. pallasii, the most terrestrial of the three isopods that we studied. The acquisition of digestion-enhancing endosymbionts may have
been an important evolutionary step allowing isopods to colonize terrestrial habitats where relatively indigestible leaf litter
is the primary food source. By contrast, the ability to digest phenolic compounds was most developed in one of the more marine
species, suggesting that this trait may have evolved independently in isopod species that consume a phenolic-rich diet, whether
in marine habitats or on land.
Received: 28 August 2000 / Accepted: 8 December 2000 相似文献
727.
The natural diet of Callinectes ornatus in Ubatuba Bay, Ubatuba (SP), Brazil, was studied. Influence of season, sex, size and molt stage variation in the diet were
also described. Specimens were collected monthly over a period of 1 year, in Ubatuba Bay, using a fishing boat equipped with
a double rigged net. The relative degree of stomach fullness, frequency of occurrence, and quantitative scoring (percentage)
were determined. Digested material, crustaceans, sediment and mollusks were the principal items of the diet. Echinoderms,
annelids, plants, and fishes were also notable prey items, and other food categories (foraminiferans, cnidarians, worms and
bryozoans) occurred in low percentages. A non-significant difference was found in many items during seasonal analysis, i.e.
plants, foraminiferans, cnidarians, bryozoans and digested material were present at highest percentages during summer and
autumn, while crustaceans and echinoderms were consumed in larger amounts during the spring and winter. Males and females
consumed a similar diet, although ovigerous females showed a greater tendency to feed on items with soft tissues (fish, squid,
shrimp). Juveniles fed more on sedentary and calcareous items than did adults, showing a significant tendency to reduce consumption
of foraminiferans, annelids, bryozoans, echinoderms and sediment as the animal increased in size, accompanied by an elevation
in the consumption of plants, crustaceans and fish. These crabs are opportunistic predators with a preference for crustaceans
and mollusks that is correlated with the availability of prey and the ontogenetic phase of the predator.
Received: 21 January 2000 / Accepted: 2 October 2000 相似文献
728.
729.
730.
One-day-old anarchistic (selected for successful worker reproduction) and wild-type honey-bee workers were introduced into queenright colonies of honey-bees of two treatments. In treatment 1, all eggs and larvae were offspring of queens from an anarchistic line. In treatment 2, all eggs and larvae were offspring of wild-type queens. In both treatments, adult workers were wild type. This experimental arrangement was used to test the importance of larval genotype on ovary activation in young adult workers. After 12 days, the introduced bees were dissected to determine the frequency of ovary activation. In those colonies provided with wild-type brood, 0% of introduced wild-type bees and 16% of anarchistic bees had activated ovaries. In those colonies provided with anarchistic brood, 13% of introduced wild-type bees and 41% of anarchistic bees had activated ovaries. These results strongly support the hypothesis that selection for high levels of worker reproduction in anarchistic stocks has reduced the amount or composition of brood pheromones produced by larvae that normally signal workers to refrain from reproduction. They also suggest that anarchistic workers have a higher threshold for these signals than wild-type bees. 相似文献