Predicting the Planform Configuration of the Braided Toklat River,Alaska, With a Suite of Rule‐Based Models1

Abstract: An ensemble of rule‐based models was constructed to assess possible future braided river planform configurations for the Toklat River in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska. This approach combined an analysis of large‐scale influences on stability with several reduced‐complexity models to produce the predictions at a practical level for managers concerned about the persistence of bank erosion while acknowledging the great uncertainty in any landscape prediction. First, a model of confluence angles reproduced observed angles of a major confluence, but showed limited susceptibility to a major rearrangement of the channel planform downstream. Second, a probabilistic map of channel locations was created with a two‐parameter channel avulsion model. The predicted channel belt location was concentrated in the same area as the current channel belt. Finally, a suite of valley‐scale channel and braid plain characteristics were extracted from a light detection and ranging (LiDAR)‐derived surface. The characteristics demonstrated large‐scale stabilizing topographic influences on channel planform. The combination of independent analyses increased confidence in the conclusion that the Toklat River braided planform is a dynamically stable system due to large and persistent valley‐scale influences, and that a range of avulsive perturbations are likely to result in a relatively unchanged planform configuration in the short term.     

The NEP scale: measuring ecological attitudes/worldviews in an African context

Given the significance of human behavior as a major driver of most environmental problems, it is generally agreed that efforts to promote global ecological and economic sustainability must now include attempts to understand public perceptions of, and attitudes toward, environmental issues. Research findings generally indicate that attitudes are important determinants of ecological behaviors, and over time, scientists have strived to develop sound measurement instruments for studying public environmental attitudes. Of these attitude measures, the New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) scale stands out as being the most widely accepted with documented validity and reliability. In this study, the NEP scale was used to examine environmental attitudes among 355 university students in Ibadan, Nigeria. Overall, the Nigerian students were found to have a lower endorsement of the pro-ecological ideologies included in the NEP compared with similar samples from other cultural contexts. However, a strong consensus was observed among the sample on the fragility of nature’s balance and possibility of eco-crisis facets of the NEP. The findings of the study are discussed in the context of relevant Nigerian social and cultural factors, and recommendations for future research are provided.     

Improving the health and safety of 911 emergency call centre agents: an evaluability assessment of a knowledge transfer strategy

A knowledge transfer (KT) strategy was implemented by the IRSST, an occupational health and safety research institute established in Québec (Canada), to improve the prevention of psychological and musculoskeletal problems among 911 emergency call centre agents. An evaluability assessment was conducted in which each aspect of the KT approach was documented systematically to determine whether the strategy had the potential to be evaluated in terms of its impact on the targeted population. A review of the literature on KT in occupational health and safety and on the evaluation of such KT programmes, along with the development of a logic model based on documentary analysis and semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, indicated that the KT strategy was likely to have had a positive impact in the 911 emergency call centre sector. Implications for future research are discussed.     

Estimating Annual Groundwater Evapotranspiration from Phreatophytes in the Great Basin Using Landsat and Flux Tower Measurements

Escalating concerns about water supplies in the Great Basin have prompted numerous water budget studies focused on groundwater recharge and discharge. For many hydrographic areas (HAs) in the Great Basin, most of the recharge is discharged by bare soil evaporation and evapotranspiration (ET) from phreatophyte vegetation. Estimating recharge from precipitation in a given HA is difficult and often has significant uncertainty, therefore it is often quantified by estimating the natural discharge. As such, remote sensing applications for spatially distributing flux tower estimates of ET and groundwater ET (ET_g) across phreatophyte areas are becoming more common. We build on previous studies and develop a transferable empirical relationship with uncertainty bounds between flux tower estimates of ET and a remotely sensed vegetation index, Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI). Energy balance‐corrected ET measured from 40 flux tower site‐year combinations in the Great Basin was statistically correlated with EVI derived from Landsat imagery (r² = 0.97). Application of the relationship to estimate mean‐annual ET_g from four HAs in western and eastern Nevada is highlighted and results are compared with previous estimates. Uncertainty bounds about the estimated mean ET_g allow investigators to evaluate if independent groundwater discharge estimates are “believable” and will ultimately assist local, state, and federal agencies to evaluate expert witness reports of ET_g, along with providing new first‐order estimates of ET_g.     

FECAL‐INDICATOR BACTERIA IN STREAMS ALONG A GRADIENT OF RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT1

ABSTRACT: Fecal‐indicator bacteria were sampled at 14 stream sites in Anchorage, Alaska, USA, as part of a study to determine the effects of urbanization on water quality. Population density in the subbasins sampled ranged from zero to 1,750 persons per square kilometer. Higher concentrations of fecal‐coliform, E. coli, and enterococci bacteria were measured at the most urbanized sites. Although fecal‐indicator bacteria concentrations were higher in summer than in winter, seasonal differences in bacteria concentrations generally were not significant. Areas served by sewer systems had significantly higher fecal‐indicator bacteria concentrations than did areas served by septic systems. The areas served by sewer systems also had storm drains that discharged directly to the streams, whereas storm sewers were not present in the areas served by septic systems. Fecal‐indicator bacteria concentrations were highly variable over a two‐day period of stable streamflow, which may have implications for testing of compliance to water‐quality standards.     

Adjusting the economy to the new energy realities of the second half of the age of oil

Our research indicates that, due to the depletion of conventional, and hence cheap, crude oil supplies (i.e. peak oil), increasing the supply of oil in the future would require exploiting lower quality resources (i.e. expensive), and thus will most likely occur only at high prices. This situation creates a system of feedbacks where economic growth, which requires more oil, would require high oil prices that will undermine that economic growth. We conclude that the economic growth of the past 40 years is unlikely to continue unless there is some remarkable change in how we manage our economy.     

Production supervisor impacts on subordinates' safety outcomes: an investigation of leader-member exchange and safety communication

PROBLEM: Supervisors are increasingly important to the functioning of manufacturing operations, in large part due to their role as leaders. While supervisors' relations and communication with their subordinates are known to be important in influencing subordinates' behavior, little is known about how these two factors will impact subordinates' safety. This study investigated how much each factor contributes to safety-related outcomes for blue-collar production employees. METHOD: Production employees at five Pennsylvania wood manufacturers completed a survey during their work shift. Five hundred and ninety eight employees provided data on leader-member exchange (LMX), safety communication, and safety-related events. Archival data on OSHA recordables were also obtained from the producers' human resources database. RESULTS: Analyses found that the influence of LMX was greater than that of safety communication in predicting safety-related events. Neither LMX nor safety communication was significantly related to OSHA recordables. Results also demonstrated that employee job satisfaction and demographic variables such as gender and age have safety implications. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Results from this study further emphasize the importance of production supervisors and illustrate the potential role of leader-member exchange in enhancing workplace safety. Specifically, organizations should foster positive social exchange between their employees and supervisors and enhance the leadership qualities of supervisors to help reduce workplace injuries.     

Response of sugar maple to calcium addition to northern hardwood forest

Watershed budget studies at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), New Hampshire, USA, have demonstrated high calcium depletion of soil during the 20th century due, in part, to acid deposition. Over the past 25 years, tree growth (especially for sugar maple) has declined on the experimental watersheds at the HBEF. In October 1999, 0.85 Mg Ca/ha was added to Watershed 1 (W1) at the HBEF in the form of wollastonite (CaSiO3), a treatment that, by summer 2002, had raised the pH in the Oie horizon from 3.8 to 5.0 and, in the Oa horizon, from 3.9 to 4.2. We measured the response of sugar maple to the calcium fertilization treatment on W1. Foliar calcium concentration of canopy sugar maples in W1 increased markedly beginning the second year after treatment, and foliar manganese declined in years four and five. By 2005, the crown condition of sugar maple was much healthier in the treated watershed as compared with the untreated reference watershed (W6). Following high seed production in 2000 and 2002, the density of sugar maple seedlings increased significantly on W1 in comparison with W6 in 2001 and 2003. Survivorship of the 2003 cohort through July 2005 was much higher on W1 (36.6%) than W6 (10.2%). In 2003, sugar maple germinants on W1 were approximately 50% larger than those in reference plots, and foliar chlorophyll concentrations were significantly greater (0.27 g/m2 vs. 0.23 g/m2 leaf area). Foliage and fine-root calcium concentrations were roughly twice as high, and manganese concentrations twice as low in the treated than the reference seedlings in 2003 and 2004. Mycorrhizal colonization of seedlings was also much greater in the treated (22.4% of root length) than the reference sites (4.4%). A similar, though less dramatic, difference was observed for mycorrhizal colonization of mature sugar maples (56% vs. 35%). These results reinforce and extend other regional observations that sugar maple decline in the northeastern United States and southern Canada is caused in part by anthropogenic effects on soil calcium status, but the causal interactions among inorganic nutrition, physiological stress, mycorrhizal colonization, and seedling growth and health remain to be established.     

Seasonal variations in plant species effects on soil N and P dynamics

It is well established that plant species influence ecosystem processes, but we have little ability to predict which vegetation changes will alter ecosystems, or how the effects of a given species might vary seasonally. We established monocultures of eight plant species in a California grassland in order to determine the plant traits that account for species impacts on nitrogen and phosphorus cycling. Plant species differed in their effects on net N mineralization and nitrification rates, and the patterns of species differences varied seasonally. Soil PO4- and microbial P were more strongly affected by slope position than by species. Although most studies focus on litter chemistry as the main determinant of plant species effects on nutrient cycling, this study showed that plant species affected biogeochemical cycling through many traits, including direct traits (litter chemistry and biomass, live-tissue chemistry and biomass) and indirect traits (plant modification of soil bioavailable C and soil microclimate). In fact, species significantly altered N and P cycling even without litter inputs. It became particularly critical to consider the effects of these multiple traits in order to account for seasonal changes in plant species effects on ecosystems. For example, species effects on potential rates of net N mineralization were most strongly influenced by soil bioavailable C in the fall and by litter chemistry in the winter and spring. Under field conditions, species effects on soil microclimate influenced rates of mineralization and nitrification, with species effects on soil temperature being critical in the fall and species effects on soil moisture being important in the dry spring. Overall, this study clearly demonstrated that in order to gain a mechanistic, predictive understanding of plant species effects on ecosystems, it is critical to look beyond plant litter chemistry and to incorporate the effects of multiple plant traits on ecosystems.     

Ancient manuring practices pollute arable soils at the St Kilda World Heritage Site, Scottish North Atlantic

The impact of ancient fertilization practices on the biogeochemistry of arable soils on the remote Scottish island of Hirta, St Kilda was investigated. The island was relatively unusual in that the inhabitants exploited seabird colonies for food, enabling high population densities to be sustained on a limited, and naturally poor, soil resource. A few other Scottish islands, the Faeroes and some Icelandic Islands, had similar cultural dependence on seabirds. Fertilization with human and animal waste streams (mainly peat ash and bird carcases) on Hirta over millennia has led to over-deepened, nutrient-rich soils (plaggen). This project set out to examine if this high rate of fertilization had adversely impacted the soil, and if so, to determine which waste streams were responsible. Arable soils were considerably elevated in Pb and Zn compared to non-arable soils. Using Pb isotope signatures and analysis of the waste streams, it was determined that this pollution came from peat and turf ash (Pb and Zn) and from bird carcases (Zn). This was also confirmed by ¹³C and ¹⁵N analysis of the profiles which showed that soil organic matter was highly enriched in marine-derived C and N compared to non-arable soils. The pollution of such a remote island may be typical of other ‘bird culture’ islands, and peat ash contamination of marginal arable soils at high latitudes may be widespread in terms of geographical area, but less intense at specific locations due to lower population densities than on Hirta.