LEAP2000:可持续能源分析的工具

LEAP是由斯德哥尔摩环境研究所(SEI)波士顿中心领导的一项合作项目,旨在为一体化的能源环境分析建立一套新的分析软件和数据库.LEAP2000项目的产品应尽早获得以广为传播.     

Statistical modeling of crystalline silica exposure by trade in the construction industry using a database compiled from the literature

A quantitative determinants-of-exposure analysis of respirable crystalline silica (RCS) levels in the construction industry was performed using a database compiled from an extensive literature review. Statistical models were developed to predict work-shift exposure levels by trade. Monte Carlo simulation was used to recreate exposures derived from summarized measurements which were combined with single measurements for analysis. Modeling was performed using Tobit models within a multimodel inference framework, with year, sampling duration, type of environment, project purpose, project type, sampling strategy and use of exposure controls as potential predictors. 1346 RCS measurements were included in the analysis, of which 318 were non-detects and 228 were simulated from summary statistics. The model containing all the variables explained 22% of total variability. Apart from trade, sampling duration, year and strategy were the most influential predictors of RCS levels. The use of exposure controls was associated with an average decrease of 19% in exposure levels compared to none, and increased concentrations were found for industrial, demolition and renovation projects. Predicted geometric means for year 1999 were the highest for drilling rig operators (0.238 mg m(-3)) and tunnel construction workers (0.224 mg m(-3)), while the estimated exceedance fraction of the ACGIH TLV by trade ranged from 47% to 91%. The predicted geometric means in this study indicated important overexposure compared to the TLV. However, the low proportion of variability explained by the models suggests that the construction trade is only a moderate predictor of work-shift exposure levels. The impact of the different tasks performed during a work shift should also be assessed to provide better management and control of RCS exposure levels on construction sites.     

A moving target—incorporating knowledge of the spatial ecology of fish into the assessment and management of freshwater fish populations

Freshwater fish move vertically and horizontally through the aquatic landscape for a variety of reasons, such as to find and exploit patchy resources or to locate essential habitats (e.g., for spawning). Inherent challenges exist with the assessment of fish populations because they are moving targets. We submit that quantifying and describing the spatial ecology of fish and their habitat is an important component of freshwater fishery assessment and management. With a growing number of tools available for studying the spatial ecology of fishes (e.g., telemetry, population genetics, hydroacoustics, otolith microchemistry, stable isotope analysis), new knowledge can now be generated and incorporated into biological assessment and fishery management. For example, knowing when, where, and how to deploy assessment gears is essential to inform, refine, or calibrate assessment protocols. Such information is also useful for quantifying or avoiding bycatch of imperiled species. Knowledge of habitat connectivity and usage can identify critically important migration corridors and habitats and can be used to improve our understanding of variables that influence spatial structuring of fish populations. Similarly, demographic processes are partly driven by the behavior of fish and mediated by environmental drivers. Information on these processes is critical to the development and application of realistic population dynamics models. Collectively, biological assessment, when informed by knowledge of spatial ecology, can provide managers with the ability to understand how and when fish and their habitats may be exposed to different threats. Naturally, this knowledge helps to better evaluate or develop strategies to protect the long-term viability of fishery production. Failure to understand the spatial ecology of fishes and to incorporate spatiotemporal data can bias population assessments and forecasts and potentially lead to ineffective or counterproductive management actions.     

Temporal and spatial variations of nutrients in the Ten Mile Creek of South Florida, USA and effects on phytoplankton biomass

Water quality throughout south Florida has been a major concern for many years. Nutrient enrichment in the Indian River Lagoon (IRL) is a major surface water issue and is suggested as a possible cause of symptoms of ecological degradation. In 2005-06, water samples were collected weekly from seven sites along Ten Mile Creek (TMC), which drains into the Indian River Lagoon, to investigate and analyze spatial and temporal fluctuations of nutrients nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P). The objective of this study was to understand the relationships among chlorophyll a concentration, nutrient enrichment and hydrological parameters in the surface water body.High median concentrations of total P (TP, 0.272 mg L(-1)), PO4-P (0.122 mg L(-1)), and dissolved total P (DTP, 0.179 mg L(-1)); and total N (TN, 0.988 mg L(-1)), NO3(-)-N (0.104 mg L(-1)), NH4+-N (0.103 mg L(-1)), and total Kjeldahl N (TKN, 0.829 mg L(-1)), were measured in TMC. The concentrations of TP, PO4-P, DTP, TN, NO3(-)-N, NH4+-N, and TKN were higher in summer and fall than in winter and spring. However, chlorophyll a and pheophytin concentrations during this period in TMC varied in the range of 0.000-60.7 and 0.000-17.4 microg L(-1), with their median values of 3.54 and 3.02 microg L(-1), respectively. The greatest mean chlorophyll a (10.3 microg L(-1)) and pheophytin (5.71 microg L(-1)) concentrations occurred in spring, while the lowest chlorophyll a (1.49 microg L(-1)) and pheophytin (1.97 mug L(-1)) in fall. High concentrations of PO4-P (>0.16 mg L(-1)), DTP (>0.24 mg L(-1)), NO3(-)-N (>0.15 mg L(-1)), NH4+-N (>0.12 mg L(-1)), and TKN (>0.96 mg L(-1)), occurred in the upstream of TMC, while high concentrations of chlorophyll a (>6.8 mug L(-l)) and pheophytin (>3.9 microg L(-l)) were detected in the downstream of TMC. The highest chlorophyll a (11.8 mug L(-l)) and pheophytin (6.06 microg L(-l)) concentrations, however, were associated with static and open water conditions. Hydrological parameters (total dissolved solid, electrical conductivity, salinity, pH, and water temperature) were positively correlated with chlorophyll a and pheophytin concentrations (P < 0.01) and these factors overshadowed the relationships between N and P concentrations and chlorophyll a under field conditions. Principal component analysis and the ratios of DIN/DP and TN/TP in the water suggest that N is the limiting nutrient factor for phytoplankton growth in the TMC and elevated N relative to P is beneficial to the growth of phytoplankton, which is supported by laboratory culture experiments under controlled conditions.     

The distribution and extent of heavy metal accumulation in song sparrows along Arizona’s upper Santa Cruz River

Heavy metals are persistent environmental contaminants, and transport of metals into the environment poses a threat to ecosystems, as plants and wildlife are susceptible to long-term exposure, bioaccumulation, and potential toxicity. We investigated the distribution and cascading extent of heavy metal accumulation in southwestern song sparrows (Melospiza melodia fallax), a resident riparian bird species that occurs along the US/Mexico border in Arizona’s upper Santa Cruz River watershed. This study had three goals: (1) quantify the degree of heavy metal accumulation in sparrows and determine the distributional patterns among study sites, (2) compare concentrations of metals found in this study to those found in studies performed prior to a 2009 international wastewater facility upgrade, and (3) assess the condition of song sparrows among sites with differing potential levels of exposure. We examined five study sites along with a reference site that reflect different potential sources of contamination. Body mass residuals and leukocyte counts were used to assess sparrow condition. Birds at our study sites typically had higher metal concentrations than birds at the reference site. Copper, mercury, nickel, and selenium in song sparrows did exceed background levels, although most metals were below background concentrations determined from previous studies. Song sparrows generally showed lower heavy metal concentrations compared to studies conducted prior to the 2009 wastewater facility upgrade. We found no cascading effects as a result of metal exposure.     

Regional status assessment of stony corals in the US Virgin Islands

States may protect coral reefs using biological water quality standards outlined by the Clean Water Act. This requires biological assessments with indicators sensitive to human disturbance and regional, probability-based survey designs. Stony coral condition was characterized on a regional scale for the first time in the nearshore waters of the US Virgin Islands (USVI). Coral composition, abundance, size, and health were assessed at 66 stations in the St. Croix region in fall 2007 and at 63 stations in the St. Thomas and St. John region in winter 2009. Indicators were chosen for their sensitivity to human disturbance. Both surveys were probability-based (random) designs with station locations preselected from areas covered by hardbottom and coral reef substrate. Taxa richness was as high as 21 species but more than half the area of both regions exhibited taxa richness of <10 species in the 25 m² transect area. Coral density was as high as 5 colonies m^?2 but more than half the area of both regions had <2 colonies m^?2. Both regions showed similar dominant species based on frequency of occurrence and relative abundance. Because of large colony sizes, Montastrea annularis provided more total surface area and live surface area than more abundant species. The surveys establish baseline regional conditions and provide a foundation for long-term regional monitoring envisioned by the USVI Department of Planning and Natural Resources. The probabilistic sampling design assures the data can be used in Clean Water Act reporting.     

Suppressed recovery of plant community composition and biodiversity on dredged fill of a hurricane-induced inlet through a barrier island

In September 2003, Hurricane Isabel created an inlet over 500 m wide and 10 m deep that connected the Atlantic Ocean and Pamlico Sound. This breach was subsequently filled with sediments dredged from the adjacent sound. The purpose of this study was to determine if the barrier island terrestrial plant communities were naturally re-establishing through primary succession. In 2006–2008, we compared plant communities, soil carbon and nitrogen, and Aeolian transport of sediments in undisturbed back-dunes, undisturbed shrub thickets, putative back-dunes, and putative shrub thickets. We found that species richness and evenness were low on the filled area relative to adjacent plant communities that had persisted through the storm. Plants on the filled area were almost entirely limited to a band of primarily Spartina patens found at the margin of the sound and there were no signs of establishing the typical zonation of back dune grasses, shrubs, and salt marsh. Evaluation of soil quality suggests that nutrients and organic material are not limiting recovery. Aeolian transport, however, was demonstrably higher across the filled area, where no dense stands of taller plants buffered the airflow. Plant re-establishment is suppressed by wind erosion inhibiting deposition of seeds. Recovery of the site will likely depend on the rhizomatous spread of S. patens from the sound shore. S. patens can then potentially facilitate the colonization of other species by buffering the wind and trapping seeds of other plants. Ironically, this slow recovery may benefit federally threatened bird species that require sparse vegetation for nesting success.     

ESTIMATED RUNOFF FROM MAN-MADE SNOW1

ABSTRACT: The consumptive loss from man-made snowmaking at six Colorado ski areas is calculated. The focus of the procedures in this investigation is on the consumptive loss that occurs to man-made snow particles during the period they reside on or in the snowpack until spring snowmelt (termed the watershed loss). Calculated watershed losses under a variety of precipitation and temperature conditions at six ski areas varied from 7 to 33 percent. These calculations were made using the calibrated Subalpine Water Balance Simulation Model (Leaf and Brink, 1973a, 1973b). The watershed loss of 7 to 33 percent indicates the range of likely watershed losses that can be expected at Colorado ski areas. A previous paper by the authors (Eisel et al., 1988) provided estimates of the mean consumptive loss during the snowmaking process (termed initial loss) for conditions existing at Colorado ski areas to be 6 percent of water applied. Therefore, based on the mean initial loss, the total consumptive loss from man-made snowmaking under conditions found at Colorado ski areas could be expected to range from 13 to 37 percent. These results demonstrate the range of total consumptive losses that could be expected in various years and for various watershed conditions. These total percentage losses cannot be extrapolated directly to other specific sites because the total consumptive loss is dependent on temperature during actual snowmaking, temperature and precipitation throughout the winter at the specific ski area, and watershed conditions at the ski area. Consumptive losses to man-made snow for a specific ski area should be estimated using the handbook procedures developed especially for this purpose (Colorado Ski Country USA, 1986b).     

Productivity equation for reclaiming surface mines

This article addresses the development of an agricultural productivity equation for predicting new soil (neo-sol) plant growth potential in Clay County, Minnesota, USA. Soil factors examined in the study include percent organic matter, percent slope, percent rock fragments, hydraulic conductivity, electrical conductivity, pH, topographic position, available water-holding capacity, bulk density, and percent clay. Squared terms and two-factor interaction terms were also examined as possible regressors. A best equation was selected that had a multiple coefficient of determination of 0.7399 and has five significant regressors and intercept withP.0001. The regressors are hydraulic conductivity, percent slope squared, bulk density times percent rock fragments, electrical conductivity times percent rock fragments, and electrical conductivity times percent organic matter. The regressors predict soil suitability for a general crop model. The crops included in the model are wheat, oats, barley, soybeans, sugar beets, sunflowers, and grasses/legumes.