Drivers of future streamflow changes in watersheds across the Northeastern United States

Accurate projections of streamflow, which have implications for flooding, water resources, hydropower, and ecosystems, are critical to climate change adaptation and require an understanding of streamflow sensitivity to climate drivers. The northeastern United States has experienced a dramatic increase in extreme precipitation over the past 25 years; however, the effects of these changes, as well as changes in other drivers of streamflow, remain unclear. Here, we use a random forest model forced with a regional climate model to examine historical and future streamflow dynamics of four watersheds across the Northeast. We find that streamflow in the cold season (November–May) is primarily driven by 3-day rainfall and antecedent wetness (Antecedent Precipitation Index) in three rainfall-dominant watersheds, and 30-day rainfall, antecedent wetness, and 30-day snowmelt in the fourth, more snowmelt-dominated watershed. In the warm season (June–October), streamflow is driven by antecedent wetness and rainfall in all watersheds. By the end of the century (2070–2099), cold season streamflow depends on the importance placed on snow in the machine learning model, with changes ranging from −7% (with snow) to +40% (without snow) in a single watershed. Simulated future warm season streamflow increases in two watersheds (56% and 193%) due to increased precipitation and antecedent soil wetness, but decreases in the other two watersheds (−6% and −27%) due to reduced precipitation.     

Field methods and example applications for the Min-Trap® mineral sampler

Important reactive minerals are commonly created during in situ groundwater remediation activities; for example, iron sulfides formed during enhanced reduction approaches can abiotically degrade many chlorinated solvents. However, cost-effective tools to evaluate these treatment processes in field applications are limited and the collection of samples to evaluate in situ mineral formation is costly due to drilling requirements. The new passive Min-Trap sampler is a simple and cost-effective tool that can directly measure the formation of reactive minerals in situ without the need for additional drilling or soil core collection. The methods presented here describe how Min-Traps deployed in conventional monitoring wells can measure reactive minerals and how these minerals can be identified through commercially available analytical methods. Several examples are presented that show how Min-Traps can be used to characterize the rate and spatial variability of reactive mineral precipitation and these data may support operation and optimization decisions.     

Seasonal nitrogen fluxes of the Lena River Delta

The Arctic is nutrient limited, particularly by nitrogen, and is impacted by anthropogenic global warming which occurs approximately twice as fast compared to the global average. Arctic warming intensifies thawing of permafrost-affected soils releasing their large organic nitrogen reservoir. This organic nitrogen reaches hydrological systems, is remineralized to reactive inorganic nitrogen, and is transported to the Arctic Ocean via large rivers. We estimate the load of nitrogen supplied from terrestrial sources into the Arctic Ocean by sampling in the Lena River and its Delta. We took water samples along one of the major deltaic channels in winter and summer in 2019 and sampling station in the central delta over a one-year cycle. Additionally, we investigate the potential release of reactive nitrogen, including nitrous oxide from soils in the Delta. We found that the Lena transported nitrogen as dissolved organic nitrogen to the coastal Arctic Ocean and that eroded soils are sources of reactive inorganic nitrogen such as ammonium and nitrate. The Lena and the Deltaic region apparently are considerable sources of nitrogen to nearshore coastal zone. The potential higher availability of inorganic nitrogen might be a source to enhance nitrous oxide emissions from terrestrial and aquatic sources to the atmosphere.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01665-0.     

Nitrous oxide and methane in a changing Arctic Ocean

Human activities are changing the Arctic environment at an unprecedented rate resulting in rapid warming, freshening, sea ice retreat and ocean acidification of the Arctic Ocean. Trace gases such as nitrous oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄) play important roles in both the atmospheric reactivity and radiative budget of the Arctic and thus have a high potential to influence the region’s climate. However, little is known about how these rapid physical and chemical changes will impact the emissions of major climate-relevant trace gases from the Arctic Ocean. The combined consequences of these stressors present a complex combination of environmental changes which might impact on trace gas production and their subsequent release to the Arctic atmosphere. Here we present our current understanding of nitrous oxide and methane cycling in the Arctic Ocean and its relevance for regional and global atmosphere and climate and offer our thoughts on how this might change over coming decades.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01633-8.     

Explaining nursing turnover intent: job satisfaction,pay satisfaction,or organizational commitment?

A number of models have been developed to explain nurses' turnover behavior. The common theme that emerges from these models is that turnover behavior is a multistage process that includes attitudinal, decisional, and behavioral components. The purpose of this study was to assess both the direct and indirect impact of certain pay policies upon the turnover intentions of paediatric nurses. The two major questions addressed were: What was the relative impact of job satisfaction, pay satisfaction, and organizational commitment upon the turnover intentions of paediatric nurses eligible for these pay policies? What model accurately portrays the relationship among these three independent variables and turnover intentions? Exploration of the causal pathways among these variables and demographic factors revealed complex models of association. The results suggest that job satisfaction has only an indirect influence on the intention to quit, whereas organizational commitment has the strongest and most direct impact. A further finding that pay satisfaction had both direct and indirect effects on turnover intent was consistent with administrators' assumptions underlying the pay policies. Control variables such as having a degree, having children, and working 12-hour shifts were found to have both direct and indirect influences upon pay satisfaction and turnover intent. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determination of relative assay response factors for toxic chlorinated and brominated dioxins/furans using an enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and a chemically-activated luciferase gene expression cell bioassay (CALUX)

Determination of toxic activity requires knowledge of both the concentration and toxicity to evaluate the risk for adverse human health and environmental effects. A chemically-activated luciferase gene expression cell bioassay system (CALUX) and an antibody-based method enzyme immunoassay (EIA) were used to detect the dioxin-like response of several polybrominated, polychlorinated, and polybrominated/chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins/furans (PBDDs/Fs, PCDDs/Fs, and PBCDDs/Fs, respectively). It has been suggested that the biological activity of the brominated and mixed bromo/chloro compounds is similar to their chlorinated analogues (measured by binding to the Ah receptor). PBDD/F, PCDD/F, and PBCDD/F laboratory standards exhibited biological activity ranging over three orders of magnitude. The highest relative potency (REP) values from CALUX analysis, when compared to 2,3,7,8-TCDD, were 2,3,7,8-TBDD at 0.99 (± 0.07), 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD at 0.69, and 2-Br-3,7,8-TriCDD at 0.72 (± 0.02). Cross-reactivities were calculated using EIA for several PBDDs/Fs and PBCDDs. The highest percent cross-reactivity was found for 2,3,7,8-TBDD at 138 (± 34%), and 2,3,7-TriBDD at 84 (± 36%).     

Improving the Evaluation of Conservation Programs

Abstract: The evaluation of conservation programs is rare but increasingly important in improving their effectiveness. Regular evaluations of conservation programs and the implementation of recommendations resulting from such assessments are infrequent because of resistance by participants and lack of funding. Evaluations may be internal or external, depending on the purpose of the review and how broadly it is focused. We strongly recommend external peer review of long-term complex conservation programs every 5 years, supported by more frequent (annual) internal reviews. Criteria for success must encompass both biological and social measures and include learning and the application of new knowledge to management. Evaluations must also go beyond monitoring to assess the value of the program. We emphasize the need to include the organization and function of a conservation program (the process) in any evaluation in addition to substantive criteria for success, which usually involve biological measures (numbers). A dysfunctional program organization and process can as effectively cripple a conservation effort as can a major biological catastrophe. We provide examples of different types of conservation program evaluations, including moderated workshops and case-study analysis, and provide advice on the logistics and organization of the review, emphasizing the importance of the evaluation process itself to a successful outcome. One important aspect of an evaluation is having an individual with leadership ability and considerable expertise to organize the format and oversee the review process itself. Second, it is essential at the outset to ensure agreement among the program participants and the review committee on the goals and objectives of the conservation program, what is to be evaluated, and the criteria for defining success. Finally, the best evaluations are inclusive and involve all participants and stakeholders.     

Numerical Investigation of the Effects of Boundary-Layer Evolution on the Predictions of Ozone and the Efficacy of Emission Control Options in the Northeastern United States

This paper examines the effects of two different planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parameterization schemes – Blackadar and Gayno–Seaman – on the predicted ozone (O₃) concentration fields using the MM5 (Version 3.3) meteorological model and the MODELS-3 photochemical model. The meteorological fields obtained from the two boundary-layer schemes have been used to drive the photochemical model to simulate O₃ concentrations in the northeastern United States for a three-day O₃ episodic period. In addition to large differences in the predicted O₃ levels at individual grid cells, the simulated daily maximum 1-h O₃ concentrations appear at different regions of the modeling domain in these simulations, due to the differences in the vertical exchange formulations in these two PBL schemes. Using process analysis, we compared the differences between the different simulations in terms of the relative importance of chemical and physical processes to O₃ formation and destruction over the diurnal cycle. Finally, examination of the photochemical model's response to reductions in emissions reveals that the choice of equally valid boundary-layer parameterizations can significantly influence the efficacy of emission control strategies.     

Numerical Investigation of Boundary-Layer Evolution and Nocturnal Low-Level Jets: Local versus Non-Local PBL Schemes

Numerical simulations of the evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and nocturnal low-level jets (LLJ) have been carried out using MM5 (version 3.3) with four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) for a high pollution episode in the northeastern United States during July 15–20, 1999. In this paper, we assess the impact of different parameterizations on the PBL evolution with two schemes: the Blackadar PBL, a hybrid local (stable regime) and non-local (convective regime) mixing scheme; and the Gayno–Seaman PBL, a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)-based eddy diffusion scheme. No FDDA was applied within the PBL to evaluate the ability of the two schemes to reproduce the PBL structure and its temporal variation. The restriction of the application of FDDA to the atmosphere above the PBL or the lowest 8 model levels, whichever is higher, has significantly improved the predicted strength and timing of the LLJ during the night. A systematic analysis of the PBL evolution has been performed for the primary meteorological fields (temperature, specific humidity, horizontal winds) and for the derived parameters such as the PBL height, virtual potential temperature, relative humidity, and cloud cover fraction. There are substantial differences between the PBL structures and evolutions simulated by these two different schemes. The model results were compared with independent observations (that were not used in FDDA) measured by aircraft, RASS and wind profiler, lidar, and tethered balloon platforms during the summer of 1999 as part of the NorthEast Oxidant and Particle Study (NE-OPS). The observations tend to support the non-local mixing mechanism better than the layer-to-layer eddy diffusion in the convective PBL.     

Variations in speciated emissions from spark-ignition and compression-ignition motor vehicles in California's south coast air basin

The U.S. Department of Energy Gasoline/Diesel PM Split Study examined the sources of uncertainties in using an organic compound-based chemical mass balance receptor model to quantify the contributions of spark-ignition (SI) and compression-ignition (CI) engine exhaust to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5). This paper presents the chemical composition profiles of SI and CI engine exhaust from the vehicle-testing portion of the study. Chemical analysis of source samples consisted of gravimetric mass, elements, ions, organic carbon (OC), and elemental carbon (EC) by the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) and Speciation Trends Network (STN) thermal/optical methods, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), hopanes, steranes, alkanes, and polar organic compounds. More than half of the mass of carbonaceous particles emitted by heavy-duty diesel trucks was EC (IMPROVE) and emissions from SI vehicles contained predominantly OC. Although total carbon (TC) by the IMPROVE and STN protocols agreed well for all of the samples, the STN/IMPROVE ratios for EC from SI exhaust decreased with decreasing sample loading. SI vehicles, whether low or high emitters, emitted greater amounts of high-molecular-weight particulate PAHs (benzo[ghi]perylene, indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene, and coronene) than did CI vehicles. Diesel emissions contained higher abundances of two- to four-ring semivolatile PAHs. Diacids were emitted by CI vehicles but are also prevalent in secondary organic aerosols, so they cannot be considered unique tracers. Hopanes and steranes were present in lubricating oil with similar composition for both gasoline and diesel vehicles and were negligible in gasoline or diesel fuels. CI vehicles emitted greater total amounts of hopanes and steranes on a mass per mile basis, but abundances were comparable to SI exhaust normalized to TC emissions within measurement uncertainty. The combustion-produced high-molecular-weight PAHs were found in used gasoline motor oil but not in fresh oil and are negligible in used diesel engine oil. The contributions of lubrication oils to abundances of these PAHs in the exhaust were large in some cases and were variable with the age and consumption rate of the oil. These factors contributed to the observed variations in their abundances to total carbon or PM2.5 among the SI composition profiles.