Designing and managing successful endangered species recovery programs

Endangered species recovery is characterized by complexity and uncertainty in both its biological and organizational aspects. To improve performance in the organizational dimension, some models of organizations are briefly introduced with an emphasis on the organization as a system for processing information, i.e., for successfully dealing with the high uncertainty in the task environment. A strong task orientation,which rewards achievement of the primary goal, is suggested as ideal for this task, as is generative rationality, which encourages workers to observe, critique, and generate new ideas. The parallel organization—a flexible, participatory, problem-solving structure set up alongside traditional bureaucracies—is offered as a useful structure for meeting the demands of uncertainties encountered during recovery. Task forces and projects teams can be set up as parallel organizations. Improved managerial functions include coordinating roles to facilitate the flow and use of information; decision making to avoid groupthink—the defects, symptoms, and countermeasures are described; and productive, active management of the inevitable conflict. The inability of organizations to solve dilemmas, to examine their own structures and management, and to change themselves for more effective, efficient, and equitable performance is seen as the major obstacle to improved recovery programs. Some recommendations for effecting change in bureaucracies are made along with a call for case studies detailing the organizational dimensions of endangered species recovery programs.     

IMPACT OF WATERSHED URBANIZATION ON STREAM INSECT COMMUNITIES1

ABSTRACT: The impact of urbanization on stream insect communities was determined by sampling 22 sites in northern Virginia representing a range of human population densities. Watershed development had little effect on the total insect numbers (no./m²), but shifted the taxonomic composition markedly. Relative abundance of Diptera (mainly chironomids) increased at more highly urbanized sites, while most other insect orders including Ephemeroptera (mayflies), Coleoptera (bettles), Megaloptera (dobsonflies), and Plecoptera (stone-flies) decreased. Trichoptera (caddisfiles) exhibited a variable response. Genus diversity and richness (number of genera) were significantly higher in less urbanized streams. Two genera of chironomids were positively correlated with increased urbanization, while 14 other genera (scattered through several orders) were negatively related to human population density. Principal components analysis demonstrated a gradient from more urbanized to less urbanized stations based on generic and order level biological data. Results of this study indicate that watershed urbanization has a major impact on benthic insect communities even in the absence of point source discharges.     

Small sample estimation for Taylor's power law

An analysis of counts of sample size N=2 arising from a survey of the grass Bromus commutatus identified several factors which might seriously affect the estimation of parameters of Taylor's power law for such small sample sizes. The small sample estimation of Taylor's power law was studied by simulation. For each of five small sample sizes, N=2, 3, 5, 15 and 30, samples were simulated from populations for which the underlying known relationship between variance and mean was given by ² = c^d. One thousand samples generated from the negative binomial distribution were simulated for each of the six combinations of c=1,2 and 11, and d=1, 2, at each of four mean densities, =0.5, 1, 10 and 100, giving 4000 samples for each combination. Estimates of Taylor's power law parameters were obtained for each combination by regressing log₁₀ s ² on log₁₀ m, where s ² and m are the sample variance and mean, respectively. Bias in the parameter estimates, b and log₁₀ a, reduced as N increased and increased with c for both values of d and these relationships were described well by quadratic response surfaces. The factors which affect small-sample estimation are: (i) exclusion of samples for which m = s ² = 0; (ii) exclusion of samples for which s ² = 0, but m > 0; (iii) correlation between log₁₀ s ² and log₁₀ m; (iv) restriction on the maximum variance expressible in a sample; (v) restriction on the minimum variance expressible in a sample; (vi) underestimation of log₁₀ s ² for skew distributions; and (vii) the limited set of possible values of m and s ². These factors and their effect on the parameter estimates are discussed in relation to the simulated samples. The effects of maximum variance restriction and underestimation of log₁₀ s ² were found to be the most severe. We conclude that Taylor's power law should be used with caution if the majority of samples from which s ² and m are calculated have size, N, less than 15. An example is given of the estimated effect of bias when Taylor's power law is used to derive an efficient sampling scheme.     

Boundary Layer Evolution and its Influence on Ground-Level Ozone Concentrations

Accurate determination of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) height (i.e., mixing height (MH)) is critical to properly simulating pollutant levels with the grid-based photochemical models. In this study, the daytime mixing heights based on the parcel and bulk Richardson number methods are compared with those obtained directly from a numerical mesoscale meteorological model in an effort to evaluate the uncertainties in the estimation of the PBL evolution. Mixing heights are estimated from hourly outputs of meteorological variables of the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 3.3 (MM5V3) with two PBL schemes (Blackadar and Gayno-Seaman) during July 1999 over Philadelphia, PA. An analysis of the diurnal variation in the urban PBL and its influence on ground-level ozone (O₃) levels is presented in this paper. The results indicate that on average, the MHs determined from the bulk Richardson number were larger than those estimated from the parcel method. The MHs from the MM5V3 output were much smaller than those derived from the parcel and bulk Richardson number methods, especially for the Gayno-Seaman scheme that is based on turbulent kinetic energy. The MH and ground-level O₃ concentration have been found to be twice as much on episode days than on non-episode days. The average hourly MH growth rate and O₃ tendency (i.e. rate of change in O₃) were largest during the morning hours (0700 to 1000 eastern standard time (EST)), suggesting that vertical mixing contributes significantly to the accumulation of ground-level O₃ in urban areas in the morning hours.     

The relationship between surface dust lead loadings on carpets and the blood lead of young children

The final clean-up of residential lead abatement projects in federally-supported housing, as well as in other housing in a number of states, must meet surface dust lead clearance levels expressed as g of lead per square foot. These clearance levels were established because hand-to-mouth ingestion of lead-contaminated dust is recognised as a major pathway through which many children are exposed. A dilemma exists because many floors in housing undergoing abatement are carpeted and the established clearance levels are generally not recommended for use on carpets. These clearance levels are also used as 'action levels' to determine whether exposure reduction activities are needed. The US Environmental Protection Agency is currently in the process of issuing standards for hazardous levels of lead in interior dust and bare soil under Title X of the Housing and Community Development Act of 1992, The Residential Lead-Based Paint Hazard Reduction Act of 1992. An effort to develop a potential surface dust lead clearance level for carpets was made using an existing vacuum dust collection method that has previously been shown to be a reliable indicator of childhood lead exposure. This method was designed for use on carpeted and non-carpeted surfaces. Using data from the Cincinnati Soil Lead Abatement Demonstration Project, the suggested floor-dust lead level where an estimated 95% of the population of children would be expected to have blood lead values below the national goal of 10 g dL^–1, was more than an order of magnitude lower than the current floor-dust lead clearance level of 1080 g m^–2 (100 g ft^–2). Further comparisons of blood lead and carpet lead levels in other parts of the country should be performed before a risk-based lead loading clearance level is established.     

Long-term CO2 enrichment of a forest ecosystem: implications for forest regeneration and succession.

The composition and successional status of a forest affect carbon storage and net ecosystem productivity, yet it remains unclear whether elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) will impact rates and trajectories of forest succession. We examined how CO2 enrichment (+200 microL CO2/L air differential) affects forest succession through growth and survivorship of tree seedlings, as part of the Duke Forest free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiment in North Carolina, USA. We planted 2352 seedlings of 14 species in the low light forest understory and determined effects of elevated CO2 on individual plant growth, survival, and total sample biomass accumulation, an integrator of plant growth and survivorship over time, for six years. We used a hierarchical Bayes framework to accommodate the uncertainty associated with the availability of light and the variability in growth among individual plants. We found that most species did not exhibit strong responses to CO2. Ulmus alata (+21%), Quercus alba (+9.5%), and nitrogen-fixing Robinia pseudoacacia (+230%) exhibited greater mean annual relative growth rates under elevated CO2 than under ambient conditions. The effects of CO2 were small relative to variability within populations; however, some species grew better under low light conditions when exposed to elevated CO2 than they did under ambient conditions. These species include shade-intolerant Liriodendron tulipifera and Liquidambar styraciflua, intermediate-tolerant Quercus velutina, and shade-tolerant Acer barbatum, A. rubrum, Prunus serotina, Ulmus alata, and Cercis canadensis. Contrary to our expectation, shade-intolerant trees did not survive better with CO2 enrichment, and population-scale responses to CO2 were influenced by survival probabilities in low light. CO2 enrichment did not increase rates of sample biomass accumulation for most species, but it did stimulate biomass growth of shade-tolerant taxa, particularly Acer barbatum and Ulmus alata. Our data suggest a small CO2 fertilization effect on tree productivity, and the possibility of reduced carbon accumulation rates relative to today's forests due to changes in species composition.     

Test of a behavior-based individual-based model: response of shorebird mortality to habitat loss.

In behavior-based individual-based models (IBMs), demographic functions are emergent properties of the model and are not built into the model structure itself, as is the case with the more widely used demography-based IBMs. Our behavior-based IBM represents the physiology and behavioral decision making of individual animals and, from that, predicts how many survive the winter nonbreeding season, an important component of fitness. This paper provides the first test of such a model by predicting the change in winter mortality of a charadriid shorebird following removal of intertidal feeding habitat, the main effect of which was to increase bird density. After adjusting one calibration parameter to the level required to replicate the observed mortality rate before habitat loss, the model predicted that mortality would increase by 3.65%, which compares well with the observed increase of 3.17%. The implication that mortality was density-dependent was confirmed by predicting mortality over a range of bird densities. Further simulations showed that the density dependence was due to an increase in both interference and depletion competition as bird density increased. Other simulations suggested that an additional area of mudflat, equivalent to only 10% of the area that had been lost, would be needed by way of mitigation to return mortality to its original level. Being situated at a high shore level with the flow of water in and out impeded by inlet pipes, the mitigating mudflat would be accessible to birds when all mudflats in the estuary were covered at high tide, thus providing the birds with extra feeding time and not just a small replacement mudflat. Apart from providing the first, and confidence-raising, test of a behavior-based IBM, the results suggest (1) that the chosen calibration procedure was effective; (2) that where no new fieldwork is required, and despite being parameter rich, a behavior-based IBM can be parameterized quickly (few weeks), and thus cheaply, because so many of the parameter values can be obtained from the literature and are embedded in the model; and (3) that behavior-based IBMs can be used to explore system behavior (e.g., the role of depletion competition and interference competition in density-dependent mortality).     

Aquatic toxicity of two Corexit dispersants

The oil spill dispersants, Corexit 9500 and Corexit 9527 have low to moderate toxicity to most aquatic species in laboratory tests. Toxicity estimates are significantly affected by test variables such as species, lifestage, exposure duration, and temperature. Aquatic toxicity data generated from spiked, declining exposures (107 min half-life) are more reflective of actual dispersant use conditions. Decisions to use oil spill response chemicals should not be based solely on aquatic toxicity. Factors to consider include product effectiveness, toxicity of dispersed oil, species/habitats requiring priority protection, and recovery potential of sensitive habitats and populations. An environmental risk assessment approach is recommended where dispersant toxicity data generated under environmentally relevant exposures are compared to estimated environmental concentrations of dispersants.